As we close in toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move, with key events like free agency in its second week and the 2023 NFL Draft still to come. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of RB Devin Singletary.
Devin Singletary’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
Despite the additions of Zack Moss and James Cook in recent years, Singletary has never relinquished his starting job. 2021 was the best season of his career, especially at the end of the year. Over those final four weeks, Singletary averaged nearly 100 total yards per game with six touchdowns. Additionally, he scored three more times in Buffalo’s games against New England and Kansas City during the playoffs.
Despite the presence of Cook in 2022 and still being on his rookie contract, Singletary remained underpaid. He was the RB1 for the Bills, rushing 177 times for 819 yards with five touchdowns, accounting for 61% of the RB attempts. He also saw 47% of the running back targets despite Cook being the best pass-catching back of the class. Singletary set a new career high with 52 targets (9.4%), catching 38 passes for 280 yards with another score.
After taking a hit in value with Cook’s addition, Singletary was the RB23 overall for fantasy last season while averaging 11.1 PPR/game (T-28th). When you look at his weekly finishes, this feels about right, but it’d also be fair to say Singletary was a difficult player to count on every week.
He was an RB1 in 25% of his games but was also outside the top 36 in 50% of them. Although Singletary did have four games of 15+ PPR points, he was held to 10 or fewer in nine of his 16 active games.
That tracks with Singletary’s career average too. Since his selection in 2019, Singletary has been an RB3 or worse 53% of the time. Plus, it wasn’t until his unbelievable streak at the end of 2021 that he strung together back-to-back RB1 outings.
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Part of this is the offense he’s on. As powerful as the Bills are, they’re not a run-first team and haven’t been for the last three seasons. Throw in Josh Allen and his rushing ability in goal-to-go situations, and Singletary’s ceiling was always capped.
Things will be a lot different moving forward, as Singletary goes from the Bills’ offensive juggernaut to quite the opposite after agreeing to a one-year contract worth up to $3.75 million with the Houston Texans, according to NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport.
This is a bit lower than what his estimated market value was with Spotrac, but it fits the overall landscape of the position. As far as the fit goes, I actually like this. Dameon Pierce was a battering hammer for the Texans in 2022, rushing 220 times for 939 yards and four touchdowns with an additional 30 receptions on 39 targets for 165 yards and a score.
Ideally, fantasy managers of Pierce would have wished this was a bit lesser of a name, but from the Texans’ standpoint, it’s a darn good 1-2 punch.
Singletary and Pierce will split reps, but the hope is the loss of opportunities are balanced by an overall better offense led by the No. 2 overall pick in the draft with more efficiency, red-zone trips, and better opportunities to run the ball against defenses that are actually respecting the pass.
Singletary was realistically never going to land a starting job, but based on what was left in terms of available spots on rosters yet to be addressed, I am pretty cool with this one overall, and Singletary should remain fantasy relevant.
We’ve seen him pop before, but he’ll have to do it now against defenses that won’t have the same respect for the passing game as they did against Buffalo. In the range of 8-12 opportunities per game, Singletary can hold fringe-RB3/RB4 value but likely on the lower end.
Devin Singletary’s Fantasy Ranking
I hoped Singletary would be the leader in a committee, but I don’t see that being the case in Houston as Pierce more than proved his worth. Additionally, it’s not like the Texans made a long-term investment in Singletary with a one-year deal that is incentive-laden to hit its max.
Due to the multi-year nature of dynasty, Singletary comes in our current rankings as the RB44 and No. 141 ranked player overall in Superflex leagues, where quarterbacks carry more value due to positional scarcity.
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While Singletary has shown upside for fantasy when you consider the likely change in teams and the fantastic rookie class headlined by Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and others, it’s difficult for me to see him as anything more than a committee-back.
That’s not a bad thing. Only a handful of RBs land outside of this category. But it will take quite a change in direction for Houston to have enough offensive rushing volume for Singletary to maintain reliable RB3/Flex value.
More than likely, most managers already have several RBs who are more reliable than Singletary on their roster. As a mid-RB4, he’ll be fine in 2023, but I don’t see him taking a step forward in value. If anything, Singletary will likely be in the lower 40s to high 50s at the position once the rookies finally have landing spots.