As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of Nico Collins.
Nico Collins’ Dynasty Outlook and Value
The Texans took a shot on Collins in Round 3 of the 2021 NFL Draft. Through two seasons, he’s largely disappointed.
Collins has certainly flashed at times, but this is still a man with fewer than 500 receiving yards in each of his first two seasons. That’s not exactly a harbinger of great things to come.
It’s fair to say that Collins hasn’t had the best opportunities, given Houston’s QB situation. However, that’s an explanation for poor productivity — not an inability to command volume.
MORE: Top Wide Receiver Dynasty Rankings
Collins played 62% of the snaps as a rookie. That only bumped up to 72% as a sophomore. Third-year breakouts are still a thing, but typically we see more progression in a player’s first two seasons. Collins has been a role player — a rotational WR3/4 for the most part.
Collins’ 19% target share in 2022 was an improvement. He was targeted on a respectable 24% of his routes run and was a contested-catch monster, finishing second in the league with a 66% contested-catch rate. There are signs of a potentially useful player here. Unfortunately, I just don’t see it ever happening.
For me, Collins profiles as a receiver who waffles between the end of rosters and the waiver wire. He’ll find his way into lineups here and there because he has a big week or scores a touchdown but is never a consistent fantasy starter.
Nico Collins’ Fantasy Ranking
Collins’ 2023 dynasty value will likely increase once the Texans draft a quarterback. Yet, everyone knows Houston is drafting a QB. The best time to extract maximum value for Collins is likely before the draft because the Texans are likely to draft another wide receiver. Depending on when they do, the rookie, combined with a returning John Metchie, could push Collins down to the WR3 role.
With that said, assuming Houston can trade Brandin Cooks, this WR depth chart is wide open. Without any high-end talents, fantasy managers will want to take shots at possibly finding the team’s WR1. That gives just about everyone more perceived value than actual value.
Collins was a somewhat popular breakout candidate last season. He likely did enough to not have too many of his supporters hop off that train. But if you can find a trade partner and move Collins, that’s the move I’d make.
Collins averaged 9.7 ppg last season. If he’s never anything more than a 10 ppg guy, that’s enough to warrant a spot on some dynasty rosters.
Given that he’s only 24 years old, someone out there probably likes Collins enough to pay for him. He’s not someone I’m looking to acquire but, instead, is someone I’m looking to move if I have him.
We are not exactly bullish on Collins ever mattering for fantasy, currently ranking him WR60 (No. 165 overall) in our dynasty Superflex rankings. He is not someone I’d target in dynasty startup drafts.