Calling all bettors! The Los Angeles Chargers haven’t reached a conference title game for 15 years. But they might just have the personnel to make another run in 2023. How will free agency and the NFL draft impact the Chargers’ Super Bowl 58 hopes? The following betting odds are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Chargers Super Bowl 58 Odds and Futures
Last February’s early odds for Super Bowl 57 offered clues on what sportsbooks were thinking and how that wove into the thinking of the broader betting market.
For example, the Kansas City Chiefs were the top favorite (+650 odds) of winning the Super Bowl, while the Buffalo Bills were No. 2. Not too shabby as far as year-long predictions go.
But the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers were Nos. 3 and 4, respectively — though, in fairness, Davante Adams’ status in Green Bay remained unclear at that point. The Tennessee Titans (No. 9) and Denver Broncos (No. 10) clearly underwhelmed. The Philadelphia Eagles weren’t even in the top third.
But what about the Chargers? They were tied with the Broncos, New England Patriots, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 10 with +2200 odds. After the dust settled on the ensuing offseason, they jumped to No. 6 (+1380 odds). Not coincidentally, the Chiefs — after sending Tyreek Hill to Miami — dipped. Suddenly, the AFC West looked like a true horse race, with Denver and the Las Vegas Raiders also making strong offseason moves.
Of course, we know what happened, as KC took the title, Denver and Vegas flopped, and the Chargers — racked with injuries — often limped through the 2022 campaign before imploding in the playoffs.
So how should bettors respond to their current seventh-ranked +2200 odds to win Super Bowl 58? Let’s briefly examine this past season.
Austin Ekeler and Other 2022 Season Takeaways
As with every team, there’s a lot to unpack here. But the Chargers also faced a unique degree of adversity for a team that, on paper (and according to oddsmakers) was on the cusp of a strong postseason run.
We cannot ignore the impact of Justin Herbert’s Week 2 rib injury, or Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missing a combined 12 games (including Williams’ absence in the Wild Card round of the playoffs). We cannot sidestep four-time Pro Bowler Joey Bosa missing 12 contests.
Let’s consider “what might have been” in three winnable matchups versus championship-caliber opponents. In a six-point loss to the 49ers, Herbert didn’t have Allen or Williams. In three fourth-quarter possessions, any of which could have resulted in a game-winning score, he was forced to target Tre’ McKitty and DeAndre Carter (four combined times) more than Ekeler and Joshua Palmer (three combined times).
That’s no knock on McKitty and Carter. But this was an eminently winnable game if Allen and Williams had been healthy.
Then there were their two three-point losses to the Chiefs. Allen sat for one of them. In the other, Patrick Mahomes hit Travis Kelce for the game-winning score with 31 seconds remaining.
I’m nit-picking here, but not entirely. A healthy 2022 Chargers squad was good enough to beat any other team on a good day. Betting on them to win it all next season hinges largely on buying into this premise — that Herbert, Ekeler, Allen, Williams, and a nowhere-to-go-but-up defense easily can improve on their recent 10-7 campaign.
MORE: Keenan Allen Dynasty Profile
But in some ways, the window is closing. We might wonder if Allen, who’s entering his age-31 season, can still be a top-14 WR. It should be noted, however, that in eight full regular-season games, he dominated with a 60-675-4 receiving line, along with the fifth-best catch rate (74.2%) among wideouts with 50+ targets. Across a full season, that projects to a 128-1,434-8 line.
For context, Justin Jefferson crushed it with a similar 128-1,809-8 line.
So yeah, Allen can still be an alpha receiver, as long as his body holds up.
The bigger question for me is Ekeler, who’s uniquely valuable in a backfield that lacks a strong backup. While Joshua Kelley was entirely adequate, 2022 was the “Ekeler Show.”
But the all-world RB will turn 28 in May, and he’s coming off a career-high 311-touch season. He exceeded 4.0 yards per carry in only five outings. His yards after contact dipped to a career-low 1.9, and his anemic broken-tackle rate (one per 40.8 carries) was a far cry from his previous worst mark (one per 15.8 carries).
On a macro level, Ekeler played like an MVP candidate. On a micro level, he showed signs of per-touch diminishment. The Chargers must figure this out ahead of 2023 — likely curtailing his usage while simultaneously signing a strong complementary option capable of carrying the load if needed.
2023 Offseason Moves
L.A. has some big decisions to make this offseason to compete with AFC bulwarks like KC, Buffalo, and Cincinnati, as well as risers like Jacksonville.
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The Chargers’ decisions could transform them into near-favorites to win the title, or drop them into the middle of the pack. More realistically, they’ll enter 2023 as a top-10 squad and trendy underdog with enough pop to make noise if (and it’s a big “if”) they can overtake the Chiefs in the AFC West.
NFL Free Agency
In the coming weeks, we’ll update this section with breaking news on key Chargers arrivals and departures through free agency and trades, how it impacts their Super Bowl odds, and how it might inform our decision to bet on them to win it all.
NFL Draft
In early May, we’ll update this section on key Chargers draft picks and UDFA signings, with an eye toward any instant-impact players who could help catapult them to “strong Super Bowl contender” status.