Projected to be the first running back off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft, what are the likeliest landing spots for Texas RB Bijan Robinson? It’s a tricky question for teams who value RBs differently in Round 1, but Robinson’s caliber of talent doesn’t come around often.
Bijan Robinson Landing Spots Include Eagles, Buccaneers, Ravens
Everyone can agree that Robinson is a truly elite RB prospect. He has the size at 6’0″, 220 pounds, the high-level vision, and creative instincts in congestion. The unnatural lateral agility and twitch are there at his size, along with the burst and contact balance. And he’s also a tremendous receiving threat out of the backfield.
Those close to Robinson bring the same endorsements. Steve Sarkisian said of Robinson late in 2022: “He’s such a nice human being that sometimes he doesn’t get enough credit for the competitive spirit that he has. I think that’s just what he’s made of. He’s a special person beyond a special player.”
Everyone can agree on how good Robinson is, but no one can agree on where exactly he’ll come off the board. It’s one such conversation where several variables impact the ultimate outcome. But looking at projections, here are some of the most likely landing spots.
Philadelphia Eagles
Miles Sanders is set to be a free agent, leaving a void at RB for the Eagles. Philadelphia will have other major needs on the defensive line and at cornerback that they could also use the 10th overall pick on.
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Nevertheless, Robinson is a legit blue-chip talent at RB, who could be very dangerous alongside Jalen Hurts in the Eagles’ offense. Even with their other needs, Philadelphia might be able to take this luxury in a deep CB and EDGE class.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won’t be fixed by one running back addition, but they’re simply in the business of adding high-level talent, and that’s what Robinson is. After releasing Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay will need a new workhorse to help shoulder the load for Kyle Trask. Robinson has the size, vision, and elite creation ability to lift the offense up as it recalibrates.
Los Angeles Chargers
Kellen Moore should be able to tap into more of his pass-oriented concepts with the Chargers, away from the influence of Mike McCarthy and Jerry Jones. But even with Justin Herbert aided by coaching, Los Angeles’ personnel has room to keep improving.
In particular, the Chargers lack a workhorse back alongside Austin Ekeler, to help keep the unit churning along. Robinson can help L.A. stay ahead late in games.
Baltimore Ravens
It’s hard to tell what the Ravens will do in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Wide receiver and cornerback are two of the most common matches for them, but if Robinson — a top-five talent in the class — falls to them, it could be a prime opportunity for a team that often subscribes to BPA.
Given the injury concerns the Ravens have experienced with their current cast of RBs, resetting the clock with Robinson might be a compelling course of action.
Buffalo Bills
Odds are, Robinson doesn’t make it to the Bills at 27th overall. But anything is possible with running backs, and if he does, Buffalo should sprint to the podium.
More than anything, the Bills need more support for Josh Allen. Robinson has the elite running ability to create when the offensive line cannot, and he’s also a high-level receiving threat for Allen down the field.
MORE: Tony Pauline’s Big Board of Top Players for the 2023 NFL Draft
Buffalo needs a running back like Robinson more than most, and there’s reason to believe they’d be willing to take him — maybe even make a slight move up to grab him if he fell far enough. Bills general manager said the following in a Combine presser about Buffalo’s desires in the 2023 offseason:
“We’re always looking for playmakers. Whether that’s a receiver, a running back, a tight end — you’re always looking for guys who are weapons with the ball. Mismatches.”
That’s exactly what Robinson projects to be at the next level.
Bijan Robinson Mock Draft Rankings
Robinson is nearly a consensus top-five prospect based on tape, but his lesser positional value as a running back naturally deflates his stock a bit.
The result? Mock drafts often have Robinson falling into the teens or 20s, but at some point, he’s always scooped up. It’s just a matter of who.
The most recent batch of first-round mock drafts at PFN help exemplify the wide range of outcomes for Robinson, even within that confined mid-to-late first-round range. Two February mocks — Arif Hasan’s and Tony Pauline’s — had Robinson mocked to the Bills, with Hasan’s incorporating a slight trade-up from 26th overall.
In another mock, James Fragoza projected Robinson to the Cowboys at 26th overall, penciling him in as the successor to Ezekiel Elliott, and a potential replacement for Tony Pollard. Joe Broback did a similar thing with his most recent mock draft, sending Robinson to the Bengals to take the reins from Joe Mixon.
The ultimate takeaway is that there’s a lot of ingrained volatility in Robinson’s projection, with his clashing prospect grade and positional value. Every decision is made on a case-by-case basis across the league, but the decision on whether to select Robinson will be more so than most.