NFL free agency is right around the corner. While some players will work out extensions with their current teams, most of them will become unrestricted free agents and hit the open market. One of the most prominent offensive free agents is New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley. What are some possible landing spots for Barkley?
Saquon Barkley Free Agency Predictions
Every year, the free agent class has its strengths and weaknesses. The 2023 class is very weak at wide receiver but absolutely loaded at running back. That, combined with what is believed to be a very strong rookie running back class, will make watching this unfold very interesting.
There are several teams clearly in need of a running back, as well as a few more with a starter likely on his last legs. The RB landscape is set to undergo a significant change over the next year or two.
Someone is about to get an answer for potentially the next four seasons in Barkley. Here are the three most likely landing spots for the Giants’ running back.
The Giants Remain the Favorite To Retain Saquon Barkley
After five seasons, Barkley’s rookie contract is up. Entering the 2022 season, it seemed more likely than not that Barkley wouldn’t be back in New York in 2023 and beyond. But after 1,650 yards and a full healthy season, the Giants and their fans are back in on Barkley.
The Giants are in a similar situation as the Cowboys are with Tony Pollard. Both teams have two players they can realistically use the franchise tag on.
As NFL fans know, teams can only tag one player. The problem for the Giants is their other guy is their quarterback, Daniel Jones. Following a much-improved 2022 campaign, bringing Jones back is a priority.
There are reports out there that Jones is looking for around $45 million a year. Simply put, that’s not happening. But given the quarterback situation in the NFL right now, the Giants absolutely cannot let Jones walk. If they can’t reach an extension, they’re going to have to use the tag on him.
What would that mean for Barkley? Well, the good news is not only does Barkley want to be back with the team, but he seems to be much more grounded in reality than his quarterback.
MORE: 2023 NFL Free Agency Predictions
When asked about his future, Barkley said, “I’m not looking to reset a market. I’m realistic. Having two years of injuries doesn’t help. But I think I was able to show the caliber of player I am.”
Reading between the lines, Barkley is neither expecting nor looking for Christian McCaffrey money. That should give Giants fans a sense of optimism that they can work out a multi-year extension to keep Barkley in New York.
Giants’ general manager Joe Schoen echoed that optimism. According to The Record Sports’ Art Stapleton, Schoen was “cautiously optimistic” about getting deals done with both Jones and Barkley.
Ultimately, I would be surprised if the Giants managed to avoid using the franchise tag at all. However, I do expect both Jones and Barkley to be in New York in 2023.
The Bears Can Afford To Pay Barkley the Big Bucks
It’s admittedly a challenge to list landing spots beyond the Giants because I really can’t envision Barkley playing anywhere else. But stranger things have happened. If Barkley and New York can’t work something out, it’s entirely possible he just takes the most lucrative offer he can get.
The Chicago Bears have the most salary cap space available. They also are a team bereft of playmakers.
Running backs don’t necessarily move the needle in terms of team success, but the Bears literally do not have a single explosive player on the roster (not counting Justin Fields). Barkley would provide the offense with a clear go-to guy and someone who can contribute both in the running game and passing game.
Chicago is currently without an RB1, as David Montgomery is also an unrestricted free agent. Unlike Barkley, he’s not expected to return to the team that drafted him.
If the Bears throw a bunch of money at Barkley, which they certainly have the ability to do, he may not be able to financially justify the level of hometown discount he would need to give the Giants to stick around.
Perhaps Barkley Joins the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs
This is easily the least likely of the three proposed landing spots, but the fit is there.
The Kansas City Chiefs whiffed on Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Whether via trade or release, he is unlikely to be on the team this year.
While Isiah Pacheco was a revelation and certainly could be KC’s lead back, NFL teams have a lengthy history of eschewing Day 3 and UDFA running backs for more prominent players, regardless of their performance.
The Chiefs won the Super Bowl because Patrick Mahomes is a wizard. That doesn’t mean they should plan to go into every season with Travis Kelce as the only legitimate playmaker. If Kansas City is going to also address their wide receiver situation, perhaps they’d be keen to use their capital on a superstar running back.
Saquon Barkley’s Market Value, Career Stats, and More
Barkley currently sits at No. 17 in our top 100 free agents. He’s the third-ranked free agent running back, behind Pollard and Josh Jacobs.
Last season, Barkley only cost the Giants $7.2 million against the salary cap. That will go up this season regardless of whether it’s via a long-term extension or the franchise tag.
Barkley is still only 26 years old. Last year, we saw older veterans James Conner and Leonard Fournette get three years, $21 million. Barkley is better and more valuable than both of them.
Despite Pollard and Jacobs ranking higher on our list, Barkley is probably going to command a larger contract than either of them. He’s likely looking at a minimum of $12-13 million a year.
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If Barkley avoids the tag, someone — likely the Giants — is going to give him a 3-4 year deal worth around $12-14 million a year. There’s an outside shot he can negotiate his way to $15 million a year, but I wouldn’t expect it.
Barkley is one of the last remaining true three-down backs in an era where so few running backs have that skill set. Wherever he ends up, I would be very surprised if it was a committee. Barkley is not the type of guy you sign to pull on third downs.
As long as Barkley can stay healthy, 1,500 yards and 10 touchdowns should be his floor.
Saquon Barkley Career Stats
- Carries: 954
- Rushing Yards: 4,249
- Receptions: 247
- Receiving Yards: 1,820
- Total Touchdowns: 37