If you’re looking for Week 3 XFL Arlington Renegades vs. Orlando Guardians odds, picks, and predictions, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
Renegades vs. Guardians Week 3 Odds and Betting Lines
The following odds and betting lines for the Renegades vs. Guardians are as of Thursday, March 2, and come from DraftKings Sportsbook. Clearly, they’re subject to change. That said, barring an unforeseen injury to a significant starter, we should assume that these lines will remain largely intact.
- Point Spread: Renegades (-8.5)
- Moneyline: Renegades (-425), Guardians (+340)
- Over/Under: 37 (-110)
Renegades vs. Guardians Picks and Predictions
Two games into the season, we’re starting to get a feel for most XFL teams. DC wins with hard-nosed running and defense. Seattle has an elite aerial attack. Et cetera.
But Arlington and Orlando are a joint study in contrasts. The Renegades opened the season with +500 odds to win the title — the league’s third-most favorable line. The Guardians were tied with Houston (yes, Houston) as the biggest longshots at +750.
Now the 1-1 Renegades have dropped to +650, while the winless Guardians are at +1600. Both teams are enigmatic in different ways. In other words, we don’t yet know how good (or bad) they truly are.
That might seem strange, especially when referring to Orlando, which has been outscored 63-24. Their QB situation has been a minor disaster, with Paxton Lynch, Quinten Dormady, and Deondre Francois combining for 311 passing yards, four passing scores, and four interceptions. For a team consistently playing from behind, that simply won’t cut it.
I’d like to see more from Francois, who played alongside Dalvin Cook and then Cam Akers while at Florida State. But he didn’t have much else to work with (Auden Tate was his best receiver), yet he still posted respectable numbers despite tough schedules.
My key here is that I’ve never trusted Lynch as “the answer” in Orlando. The sooner the team moves on, the sooner they can see what they have in Dormady or Francois — or perhaps even pay a ringer like Cam Newton (if interested) to generate more league excitement and elevate an offense that actually isn’t that bad.
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Because running backs Jah-Maine Martin and Kelvin Taylor have done everything this franchise could have hoped for through two games, combining for 136 yards on 31 carries (4.4 ypc). They also have only four catches for zero yards. There’s untapped potential here, especially for a team looking to jumpstart its aerial attack.
And their receivers are fine, possibly even “good.” We can’t know, given the current QB complexities. Cody Latimer and Andrew Jamiel form a capable one-two punch, and even the 30-year-old Eli Rogers has stepped up after last seeing NFL action in 2018.
For now, as I’ve written before, this remains a team whose defense lacks the personnel to stop opponents and whose offense lacks the quarterback to catch up. But I also have to believe this franchise will try to make meaningful adjustments.
Will it be enough to earn the biggest XFL upset of the season? Probably not. That said, the Renegades are truly tough to figure out. Last week, they mostly shut down the Roughnecks’ Max Borghi and limited Brandon Silvers to 173 yards on 14 of 28 passing. Yet Houston still won. How?
In part because Houston figured out how to stop Arlington. After the Renegades took a 14-11 lead in the second quarter, they manufactured only two first downs the rest of the game, while Drew Plitt committed two turnovers. Arlington’s starting QB simply hasn’t looked like the long-term answer, and an eventual shift to backup Kyle Sloter wouldn’t be surprising.
Meanwhile, Arlington’s running game has struggled behind De’Veon Smith, Keith Ford, and Adrian Killins. Smith’s abilities through the air are a nice complement to franchise tight end Sal Cannella. But there aren’t enough reliable playmakers — at least not yet — to move the ball consistently.
As rough as Orlando’s defense has looked, the Renegades arguably will be the weakest offense they’ve faced. Tack on the eight sacks Plitt has absorbed, and we might envision a scenario where Arlington does enough to put 15 to 20 points on the board. That should be enough to win, but not to cover.
- Recommended Point Spread Bet: Guardians (+8.5)
- Recommended Moneyline Bet: Renegades (-425)
- Over/Under: Over 37 (-110)