As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of Tyler Allgeier.
Tyler Allgeier’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
The Atlanta Falcons have been searching for their answer at running back since Devonta Freeman stopped being good/got hurt in 2018. The situation got so dire that they made Cordarrelle Patterson their lead back in 2021.
Day 3 picks rarely matter in the NFL, especially at skill positions. But fifth-rounder Allgeier walked into a very open backfield.
After not playing in Week 1, Allgeier was given an immediate role in Week 2. With the Falcons running so often — regardless of the score — there was enough meat on the bone for Patterson and Allgeier to both see volume. There were even games where third-stringer Caleb Huntley was able to produce with Patterson and Allgeier active.
Allgeier was an effective runner on limited carries for most of the season. Then, down the stretch, the Falcons fully turned their backfield over to the rookie, even with Patterson healthy. Over the final four games, Allgeier averaged 19.75 carries per game and 107.75 rushing yards.
As a prospect, there’s a reason Allgeier fell to Day 3. He’s slow (ran a 4.6 40 time), unathletic (below average burst and agility), and didn’t produce at all in college until his junior and senior seasons.
To his credit, he overperformed his athleticism as a rookie. Allgeier averaged 4.9 yards per carry and ran for over 1,000 yards. He finished top 20 in a number of metrics, including yards per touch, evaded tackles per touch, and 15-plus-yard-run rate.
From a fantasy perspective, Allgeier was worth being drafted all season. He averaged 10 ppg, which is good for RB3 numbers. Most important for dynasty managers, though, is the final four weeks, where he averaged 17 ppg. Those are RB1 numbers. At bare minimum, Allgeier proved he has a legitimate fantasy ceiling.
Even more encouraging is the circumstances in which Allgeier produced. While the excessively run-heavy approach benefited him in terms of volume, he would actually be better served to be in an offense that runs less.
Allgeier only scored four touchdowns. On a more competent offense, what he loses in volume, he could easily make up for in scoring. That’s something we could see if this offense improves going forward.
Tyler Allgeier’s Fantasy Ranking
On the whole, I like Allgeier. I’ve seen enough to believe he can be a fantasy RB2 for the next half-decade. Unfortunately, he’s still a Day 3 pick. For as well as Allgeier played, he’ll never have job security. We’ve seen far too many Day 3 picks play well as rookies and sophomores only to be cast aside in favor of more flashy options.
This makes Allgeier a risky asset in dynasty leagues. Of course, no one wants to trade away a potential perennial RB2. But it’s definitely a risk to hang on to Allgeier and assume he’s just going to be a starting running back in the NFL until he isn’t good anymore. Sadly, that’s not how things work.
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Right now, Allgeier is not quite a top-24 dynasty RB. Currently, he’s ranked as the RB30 (No. 94 overall) in our dynasty Superflex rankings. Interestingly enough, I’d be more interested in him at that price in a dynasty startup draft than if I already had him/was looking to acquire him.
There’s an equal chance Allgeier is somewhere in the top 18 heading into 2024 than there is that he’s completely irrelevant. Think Michael Carter with the Jets as his worst-case scenario. Dynasty managers will have to decide whether the risk is worth taking.