Calling all bettors! In recent years, the San Francisco 49ers have been part of NFL royalty, in a second- or third-born sort of way. How will free agency, the 2023 NFL Draft, and San Francisco’s starting QB situation impact their chances of winning Super Bowl 58? The following betting odds are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl 58 Odds and Futures
Last February’s early odds for Super Bowl 57 offered clues on what sportsbooks were thinking and how that wove into the thinking of the broader betting market.
For example, the Kansas City Chiefs were the top favorite (+650 odds) of winning this year’s Super Bowl, while the Buffalo Bills were No. 2. Not too shabby as far as year-long predictions go.
But the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers were Nos. 3 and 4, respectively — though, in fairness, Davante Adams’ status in Green Bay remained unclear at that point. The Tennessee Titans (No. 9) and Denver Broncos (No. 10) clearly underwhelmed. The Eagles weren’t even in the top third.
But what about the Niners? They were tied for fourth with +1400 odds. Big questions surrounded their presumed starting QB. Otherwise, this squad was built to compete against anyone. Yet, by the eve of Week 1, San Francisco drafted back to No. 7 at +1600 odds. Perhaps some oddsmakers weren’t convinced their young second-year signal-caller could help elevate this team to the Promised Land.
Let’s examine the 49ers’ 2022 campaign and how bettors should respond ahead of next season.
Trey Lance, Brock Purdy, and Other 2022 Season Takeaways
Imagine you have two kids, ages eight and five. It’s your birthday, and you’ve demanded that they each get you a gift (for the sake of this analogy — not because you’re mean to your children).
Your eight-year-old spends $20 out of his $35 savings to get you 30 candy bars. Fantastic. Great kid. You’ll enjoy eating these for several weeks.
Your five-year-old spends 63 cents on a first-class stamp, which she affixes to an envelope and places in a mailbox. Inside that envelope, etched in barely legible handwriting, is a simple message: “Your the beste Daddy in the holl wyde wurld.”
Wow. Maybe the most shockingly beautiful gift you’ve ever received. Good thing you have two kids. One usually comes through.
The 49ers used the No. 3 overall draft pick in 2021 to select Trey Lance. Then they used the final pick of the 2022 draft on Brock Purdy. One was a coveted asset who might someday become a star. The other was, at best, a career backup.
We speak in business and sports about “sunk costs” — investments that cannot be undone. San Francisco paid a heavy cost to land Lance. Because of injuries and Jimmy Garoppolo’s strong play in 2021, Lance has attempted only 102 throws in his first two seasons. In fact, including college, he’s attempted only 132 throws in his past three seasons.
MORE: Brock Purdy Injury Update — Torn UCL Sets Up Tricky Offseason for San Francisco 49ers
I’ve been very public in my bullishness about both Lance and Justin Fields since they were drafted. Give them enough reps, I thought, and they’ll acclimate to the game. It worked for Fields this past season. But Lance remains in limbo — a QB in need of experience that he hasn’t yet earned.
That’s a tough spot to be in, even if you’re the former No. 3 overall pick. And it’s due largely to Purdy’s astounding ascension. Honestly, when in NFL history has a third-string, seventh-round rookie been thrust into a starting role midseason and then helped lead his team to the playoffs?
Most squads don’t have a capable No. 2 QB, much less a No. 3. And yet, Purdy and San Francisco shocked the football world, as “Mr. Irrelevant” played as well as Garoppolo, and at times even better.
Additionally, we’ll never know if a healthy Purdy could have helped lead the Niners past the Eagles in the NFC title game. When considering the missed coach’s challenge opportunity that set up Philly’s first score, as well as (respectfully) how overmatched No. 4 QB Josh Johnson was in relief of Purdy, we might wonder if these 49ers were good enough to win the Super Bowl if Purdy had remained on the field.
Much can be said about Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and an elite defense. The biggest question mark, though, is whether Purdy showed enough to merit the Week 1 starting job.
Lance is a sunk cost with an uber-high ceiling. It might take him a couple seasons to make serious headway. Purdy might round into a top 8-12 NFL quarterback with continued development. Or, defenses might adjust in Year 2, as they sometimes do versus QBs with lower ceilings.
2023 Offseason Moves
If you’re betting on the Niners winning it all, it might come down to whether they roll with Lance or Purdy — which might come down to who’s healthiest. Both are recovering from serious injuries. The team’s current Super Bowl odds are +800 — third best in the NFL. I’m watching to see who’s named the Week 1 starter.
MORE: Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl Odds
And if the odds worsen, I’ll probably be more bullish. Because if Lance gets the nod, the team knows they’ve got Purdy if Lance falters. In the NFC West, 10 wins might be enough to snag the No. 4 seed. Then it’ll come down to winning four playoff games. And as built, as long as they stay healthy, the Niners are talented enough to make a run.
NFL Free Agency
In the coming weeks, we’ll update this section with breaking news on key 49ers arrivals and departures through free agency and trades, how it impacts their Super Bowl odds, and how it might inform our decision to bet on them to win it all.
NFL Draft
In early May, we’ll update this section on key 49ers draft picks and UDFA signings, with an eye toward any instant-impact players who could help cement them as preseason Super Bowl favorites.