As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’ve been playing dynasty fantasy football for years, or are first looking to get started, let’s take a look at the latest dynasty value of Keenan Allen.
Keenan Allen’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
I’m not sure there’s been a more consistently reliable player in all of fantasy football over the past decade than Allen. Since entering the league in 2013, he has been a WR2 or better in all but one healthy season. Over his past six seasons, he’s averaged between 16.1 and 17.8 ppg.
Despite being unfairly labeled as “injury prone” by the people who think it’s possible to predict injuries, Allen has been remarkably healthy throughout his career. This past season was the first time Allen didn’t play in at least 14 games since tearing his ACL in the first game of 2016.
Allen has been the quintessential floor player. The only season in which he might’ve won fantasy managers’ matchups was half of 2015 before a kidney laceration prematurely ended his season. Otherwise, his job was to make sure you didn’t lose on his account. Even though a lingering hamstring strain cost him seven games last year, Allen averaged a perfectly respectable 16.4 ppg.
Allen remained relatively dominant when on the field. His 27.8% targets-per-route-run rate was inside the top 15, as was his 2.35 yards-per-route-run rate. He still gets open at an elite level, and the volume is there. That’s why his 8.5 average depth of target shouldn’t be a concern — he’s always been an underneath guy.
MORE: 2023 Dynasty Rookie Rankings
With that said, after a decade of productivity, there’s no denying that Allen is nearing the end. The good news is he has a skill set that typically ages well, as Allen isn’t reliant on athleticism to do what he does. The bad news is, at 31 years old, the body can’t handle the punishment of professional football like it used to.
I don’t think declining ability is what will do Allen in. Instead, I think it will be his body just breaking down. For recent examples of what this looks like, take a look at Julio Jones and Michael Thomas. When on the field, they look fine. They just can’t stay on the field anymore.
Now, I know what you’re thinking. “You just said we can’t predict injury.” Correct. But it’s different when we’re talking about players over the age of 30. There comes a time for every athlete when his body can no longer handle professional sports.
It just happens sooner for some than others. All I’m saying is I think that is what will happen to Allen before his skills start to seriously erode.
Keenan Allen’s Fantasy Ranking
Allen is signed for the next two seasons. However, there’s a ton of chatter out there about the Chargers potentially releasing him, which they can do with just a $6.9 million dead cap hit. Ultimately, I would be surprised if LA lets Allen go. But in 2024, the Chargers can save $23.1 million by moving on from him. If he has another injury-plagued season in 2023, that seems likely.
It’s easy for me to recommend trading Allen for younger players. Every dynasty manager wants to get all they can out of their players and then trade them for younger assets at the end of their careers. Odds are, you won’t be able to get what you’re looking for in a trade.
Health permitting, Allen can probably maintain a 14-16 ppg average for another 3-4 years. In an ironic twist of fate, I might actually be more interested in buying him if I can get him for cheap.
When on the field, Allen should consistently outproduce his WR37 and No. 92 overall dynasty Superflex ranking. He can probably be had at quite an inexpensive price in dynasty startup drafts.