Calling all bettors! The Dallas Cowboys are one of the favorites to win the next Super Bowl. Should we lean into this wager? Or will Dallas underperform? And how will free agency and the 2023 NFL Draft impact their chances? The following betting odds are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl 58 Odds
Last February’s early odds for Super Bowl 57 offered clues on what sportsbooks were thinking and how that wove into the thinking of the broader better market.
For example, the Kansas City Chiefs were the top favorite (+650 odds) of winning this year’s Super Bowl, while the Buffalo Bills were No. 2. Not too shabby as far as year-long predictions go.
But the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers were No.’s 3 and 4, respectively — though in fairness, Davante Adams’ status in Green Bay remained unclear at that point. The Tennessee Titans (No. 9) and Denver Broncos (No. 10) clearly underwhelmed. The Philadelphia Eagles weren’t even in the top third.
MORE: List of Super Bowl Appearances by Team
And the Cowboys? They were No. 6 with +1500 odds. And if Tony Pollard hadn’t gotten hurt early in their playoff contest versus the San Francisco 49ers, who knows if Dallas could have reached the NFC Championship game and challenged Philadelphia for a shot at another Super Bowl?
Incredibly, betting lines for the next Super Bowl winner place Dallas No. 6 again — this time with +1400 odds. Yes, almost identical to last year. So how should bettors respond?
2022 Season Takeaways
The Cowboys are trying to win their first championship in 28 years. When weighing their chances this coming season, we need to consider “what might have been” in 2022 — namely, Dak Prescott’s injury.
Because although Dallas went 4-1 with Prescott sidelined early in the campaign, their one defeat was against the Eagles. It took the Cowboys until the waning seconds of the first half to post their first points. By then, they were trailing 20-3. In hindsight, it was impressive that they lost by only nine points.
For all his deserved accolades in relief of their starter, backup QB Cooper Rush operated more as a game manager than a playmaker. Among all QBs who appeared in at least four games last year, Rush ranked 53rd in completion percentage (58%).
He remained as immobile as ever (six rushing yards on nine carries) and manufactured only five touchdown passes in 5+ contests, along with three interceptions.
No doubt, Rush stepped up as an adequate fill-in. But the NFC’s No. 1 seed — and home field advantage until the Super Bowl — might have come down to that one winnable game against the Eagles, when Prescott stood helplessly on the sideline.
To put an exclamation point on this theory, excluding a meaningless Week 18 loss to the Washington Commanders, when the Cowboys already had secured no better and no worse than the No. 5 seed, Dallas had gone 8-2 in Prescott’s 10 full games.
The only two losses were in overtime. The Cowboys averaged 35.1 points per contest during that stretch, which included four games versus playoff teams and three versus teams that were in postseason contention until Week 18.
MORE: Ranking Every Super Bowl of All-Time From Worst to First
For context, the Super Bowl-winning Chiefs averaged 29.2 points during the regular season — or nearly a touchdown less than Dallas did with Prescott starting and finishing.
This marked a step forward for an already elite offense that led the league in scoring the year before. And the Cowboys’ improved defense (fifth fewest points yielded) further cemented their standing as one of the league’s most dangerous teams.
Now then, we cannot seriously conjecture that the Cowboys would have won the Super Bowl if Prescott had remained healthy and won that critically important Week 6 faceoff against Philly. But . . . we also cannot seriously deny how dominant Dallas could be — and often was — on both sides of the ball.
2023 Offseason Moves
The Cowboys might be one or two pieces away from being a bargain wager at their +1400 Super Bowl odds. Or perhaps they’re already a bargain.
Much comes down to if or how they restructure Ezekiel Elliott’s contract and whether they retain Tony Pollard, Dalton Schultz, and other key assets. We also might see a flashy receiver signing to help complement what became a top-heavy WR corps led by CeeDee Lamb.
NFL Free Agency
March 18 Update: I’m calling it a slow NFL news day, because the biggest NFL story apparently was Dallas acquiring Brandin Cooks. Yes, Cooks is a terrific get. But he’s also been his teams’ alpha receiver for most of his professional life. Turning 30 years old in September, he’ll take a backseat to CeeDee Lamb and might even compete with the enigmatic (and often injured) Michael Gallup.
The point is, for all the flash of this move, it probably won’t move the needle much on the Cowboys’ Super Bowl odds. At his best, Cooks gives Dallas more WR stability. At his most realistic, Cooks is an aging post-prime body likely headed for the worst target share of his career.
In the coming weeks, we’ll update this section with breaking news on other key Cowboys arrivals and departures through free agency and trades, how it impacts their Super Bowl odds, and how it might inform our decision to bet on them to win it all.
NFL Draft
In early May, we’ll update this section on key Cowboys draft picks and UDFA signings, with an eye toward any instant-impact players who could help catapult Dallas to league-frontrunner status.