The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles will square off in Super Bowl 57, and a few players will likely hand in performances that will stick with us for years to come. Who are the favorites to walk away with the MVP award? Here are our Super Bowl MVP predictions for Sunday.
9 Predictions To Win Super Bowl MVP in 2023
Quarterbacks have won 31 Super Bowl MVP awards, nearly four times as many as the next-closest position (wide receiver). Thus, starting under center with the league’s best signal-caller is only natural.
Patrick Mahomes
The Super Bowl MVP has gone to a member of the winning team every year except one. So if you believe the Chiefs will defeat the Eagles on Sunday, Patrick Mahomes makes for a worthwhile choice.
Mahomes won the MVP award in Super Bowl 54 after defeating the San Francisco 49ers. He completed 26 of 42 attempts for 286 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions in a come-from-behind victory.
Mahomes has been hobbled since suffering a high ankle sprain in the Divisional Round. However, he’s still been flawless in the playoffs, throwing for 521 yards, four scores, and no picks against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals.
If the Chiefs win Super Bowl 57, Mahomes will almost surely be at the center of that effort. Mahomes, who won the NFL MVP award on Thursday night, has a chance to become just the 10th player in NFL history to take home the league MVP and Super Bowl MVP in the same season.
Travis Kelce
A tight end has never won a Super Bowl MVP award, but Travis Kelce consistently resets our expectations for what a TE can achieve.
It would take an incredible performance for Kelce to secure the MVP. Even if he posts a two-touchdown game, Mahomes will have thrown for those two scores and perhaps others in addition, making him the likely favorite.
Kelce might need a three- or four-score game to compete for the MVP, but that’s something he’s done before — including twice this season. He managed four touchdowns against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 5 before putting up three more against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 11. Kelce also scored three TDs against the Houston Texans in the 2019 playoffs.
Isiah Pacheco
If there’s one area of the Eagles’ defense than can be attacked, it’s in the run game. Philadelphia ranks just 22nd in run defense efficiency and success rate.
Isiah Pacheco has reached double-digit carries in each of the Chiefs’ postseason games, something he did in nine regular-season contests. If he punches in a few touchdowns, he’ll be in the MVP conversation.
In order to win, Pacheco will likely need to be involved in the passing game. Jerick McKinnon is typically Kansas City’s passing-down back. But if the Chiefs believe their offensive line can hold up in pass protection without relying on McKinnon as a blocker, Pacheco could run more routes than usual.
Chris Jones
Former Dallas Cowboy Randy White is the only defensive tackle in league history to win Super Bowl MVP, and he had to share the award with teammate Harvey Martin.
Chris Jones posted 15.5 sacks this season and was a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year. It’s possible that he could wreak enough havoc on Sunday to attract the attention of Super Bowl MVP voters.
However, it would probably take a once-in-a-lifetime performance for Jones to win the award. Not only is the field stacked against defensive players, but the Eagles’ offensive line is the best in the business. Jones would likely need multiple sacks, a forced turnover, and potentially even a defensive touchdown to earn MVP.
Jalen Hurts
If the Eagles win their second Super Bowl in six seasons, Jalen Hurts will be at the forefront of the Super Bowl MVP discussion. After a breakout 2022 campaign, he finished second to Mahomes in league MVP voting on Thursday.
Hurts can affect the game in so many different ways that he’ll have several avenues to winning Super Bowl MVP. The Chiefs haven’t faced a mobile quarterback like Hurts this year, and if they struggle to contain him on the ground, the third-year QB could run wild. He’s also the favorite to score anytime the Eagles are near the goal line.
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If Kansas City sells out to stop the run, Hurts is nearly as dangerous via the pass. He throws a beautiful deep ball, finished fifth in adjusted net yards passing per attempt, and could take advantage of any Chiefs coverage busts.
Like Mahomes, Hurts is the Eagles’ favorite for MVP simply due to the position he plays. If Philadelphia wins, he’s overwhelmingly likely to secure the MVP award.
Miles Sanders
The Chiefs have performed much better against the run this season than in years past, but they haven’t played a rushing attack like the Eagles’. Philadelphia lapped the rest of the NFL in rushing efficiency, and Miles Sanders put up the best statistical campaign of his career.
If Kansas City can’t stop the Eagles’ RPO game, Sanders could have a field day. He would likely need to score at least two touchdowns — something he did four times this year — to win Super Bowl MVP.
There are several factors working against Sanders. The Eagles could always choose to get fellow running backs Kenneth Gainwell or Boston Scott more involved, which would limit Sanders’ opportunities. And Sanders’ lack of usage in the passing game will prevent him from adding extra yardage to his totals.
A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown has taken his production to a new level since joining the Eagles. This year, he set new career highs in targets, receptions, and yards while matching his career-best mark with 11 touchdowns. Brown finished third among receivers in yards per route run and earned a second-team All-Pro nod.
Brown has been held below 30 yards in each of the Eagles’ first two playoff games, but neither of those contests was close. Given that Philadelphia was essentially winding the clock in both of their postseason outings, they didn’t need Brown’s services.
That should change against the Chiefs, as the Eagles will be forced to keep up with the NFL’s best offense. Kansas City is the league’s second-worst defense against No. 1 receivers in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Brown will likely need multiple touchdowns to win MVP, but that’s possible against a Chiefs secondary starting two rookie cornerbacks.
DeVonta Smith
Brown has been excellent this year, but DeVonta Smith was almost as impressive. The 2021 first-round pick hauled in 95 receptions for 1,196 yards and seven touchdowns this season and showcased substantial development from his rookie campaign.
Smith’s path to Super Bowl MVP would have to include the Chiefs’ defense overcompensating to stop Brown. If Kansas City devotes all its attention to handling the Eagles’ No. 1 wideout, Smith could break free for a few significant gains. Smith has been outstanding when aligned in the slot, and it shouldn’t be a surprise if Philadelphia tries to get him loose on the inside.
To win MVP, Smith would need a breakout game the likes of which he’s posted just once this year. Facing the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16, Smith went off for eight catches, 113 yards, and two touchdowns. That’s the type of performance he’ll need to be in the Super Bowl MVP conversation.
Haason Reddick
It’s always difficult for defenders to win Super Bowl MVPs, but linebackers/edge rushers typically have the best chance.
Picking a defensive player to win MVP in a Super Bowl with a 50.5 over/under total seems like a fool’s errand. Trying to select the correct player from Philadelphia’s vaunted defense presents even more of a challenge.
Still, we’ll go with Haason Reddick, who this year ranked second in the NFL with 16 sacks and has been one of the league’s best pass rushers over the last three seasons. On Sunday, Reddick will primarily line up against Chiefs right tackle Andrew Wylie, the weakest link on KC’s otherwise solid offensive line.
As noted with Jones, it will take a Herculean effort for Reddick to win MVP — multiple sacks, a turnover, and maybe a defensive score. Reddick has never scored a touchdown in his career, but if he gets in the end zone against the Chiefs, he’ll have a chance at MVP.