We’ve reached the run-up to Super Bowl 57 between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. Player injuries and other factors can upend betting lines. But nothing except a referee’s fingers can upend the results of the opening coin flip. Here are various NFL betting odds for the results of the opening coin toss based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Coin Flip Prop Bets for the 2023 Super Bowl
According to some historians, King Croesus of Lydia invented coinage more than 2,500 years ago. According to zero historians, he invented the coin flip.
But who knows? Tossing metal in the air might have been one of the most fun activities in the sixth century BC. Surely not as fun as chariot races or pankration. But no doubt, elegant in its simplicity.
For that matter, maybe coin flips were part of the famed Isthmian Games or the more famous Olympic Games of the same period.
Regardless, we do know that coin tosses have been part of human history since the days of the Roman Empire roughly 2,000 years ago. And it could be argued that in the millions (billions?) of coin tosses since then, none have carried greater significance than the one upcoming at Super Bowl LVII.
Eagles vs. Chiefs Coin Flip Props
DraftKings kindly is offering +100 odds for heads and +100 odds for tails. It’s a true 50/50 bet with a double-your-money payout. Better odds than you could get going red/black or odd/even on a roulette wheel.
Naturally, this prop split is mirrored with each team. Betting on the Eagles to win the coin flip is +100 — the same for betting on the Chiefs to win it. All pretty straightforward so far.
Ah, but now the curveball, thanks to our good friend, the parlay. DraftKings is offering +250 odds for the Eagles to win the coin toss and the game. The Chiefs are netting +300 odds if they win the toss and the game.
MORE: Super Bowl Betting History — Lines, Spreads, Results, and Trends
Fascinating. If we dig a little deeper, we can observe that over the past two decades, on average, first-quarter scoring has lagged significantly behind scoring in the other three frames. So if Philadelphia wins the opening toss and defers, kicking off first to the Chiefs, and if trends continue (i.e. less first-quarter scoring), then Kansas City might be at a competitive disadvantage.
The key takeaway is that if you feel confident about the Eagles or Chiefs winning, then it might make sense to double down on the opening coin flip. It’s basically a 50/50 proposition, with a shot at a significant payout if the parlay holds.
But if you don’t feel confident about which team will win — if you see it as a 50/50 bet — then the odds are not in your favor. Because statistically, we have a 25% chance of winning two 50/50 bets. That means if we make four such parlays, we would hope to win one.
As such, we would want/expect a 300% return on any winning parlay to offset the possible loss (statistically speaking) of the other three.
The Eagles offer no such assurance if you believe their odds of winning are 50%. Because a winning coin toss and Super Bowl victory would give you a 250% payout.
But the Chiefs offer a more equitable payout of 300% — an amount we would expect when making a parlay on two 50/50 bets.