The Super Bowl is one of the most watched sporting events in the world each year. It also holds significant sway in the betting world. Let’s examine the history of NFL betting on the Super Bowl, including a game-by-game rundown.
Super Bowl Betting Trends
For a more macro view of Super Bowl betting trends, here’s a rundown of interesting statistics and how bettors might interpret them.
Moneyline and Against the Spread Results
As most of you know, moneyline bets are based on who wins and who loses. When it comes to the win-or-go-home playoffs, there is no such thing as a “push.”
Through the 2021 season, the pre-game favorite has prevailed in 37 Super Bowls, while the underdog has won only 18 times. We’re excluding Super Bowl XLIX between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks because that was a pick’em.
The competitive nature of Super Bowls has shifted over time. And given the growth of the NFL and more specialized expertise across all positions, one might argue that the Super Bowl’s greater competitiveness parallels that of the league.
For example, the favorite won eight of the first 10 Super Bowls, then seven of the next 10. That 8 of 10, 7 of 10 pattern repeated over the next 20 years, leaving the favorites as winners of 30 out of the first 40 Super Bowls.
MORE: NFL Betting Terms and Meanings
In fact, there was a continuous 12-year stretch, beginning with Super Bowl XXIII, in which the point spread was at least 6.5 and reached double digits six times. By contrast, it’s been 14 years since a Super Bowl had a point spread above five.
That helps explain why underdogs have won seven of the last 12 Super Bowls. Narrow point spreads suggest the teams are more evenly matched. This isn’t idle speculation, of course. One bad snap, defensive pass interference, or miraculous helmet catch can make all the difference between two comparable squads.
Interestingly, Super Bowl LVI (2022) marked only the seventh time in Super Bowl history that the favorite won but didn’t cover the spread. The other six were Super Bowls X (1976), XXIII (1989), XXX (1996), XXXVIII (2004), XXXIX (2005), and XLIII (2009). Even more fascinating, 2022 saw the only time a team that was favored by fewer than seven points win but not cover.
Over/Under Betting Trends
There was no over/under for the total score for Super Bowl I. That leaves us with 55 years of robust data, which shows that taking the under in each Super Bowl would have been correct 29 times (53%).
Given the betting lines that generally accompany over/unders, this data in a vacuum is hardly actionable. After all, 53% might not even get you a cup of coffee if, say, you win 53% of the time.
(I actually just did the math on winning 29 of 55 bets at -110 odds for $10 apiece. The net winnings could get you a small coffee at Starbucks.)
The first decade of the Super Bowl saw the under dominate, going 7-2. The following two decades were more even, with the over holding an 11-9 edge. The over was then slightly more dominant between Super Bowls XXXI and XL, going 6-4 in that stretch, and bringing the overall total to 19 unders and 20 overs.
The overs also have a slight edge these last 16 years, bringing the total split to 26 unders and 29 overs.
Full Super Bowl Betting History
And now, a comprehensive rundown of the betting history for each Super Bowl through Super Bowl LVII. At each step, we’ll log how the favorite has done straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), as well as over/under results.
Super Bowl I – Super Bowl X
- SB I | Packers (-14) 35-10 Chiefs
Favorite SU: 1-0; ATS: 1-0
No total points over/under - SB II | Packers (-13.5) 33-14 Raiders
Favorite SU: 2-0; ATS: 2-0
Total: Over 43 (Over 1-0) - SB III | Jets (+18) 16-7 Colts
Favorite SU: 2-1; ATS: 2-1
Total: Under 40 (1-1) - SB IV | Chiefs (+12) 23-7 Vikings
Favorite SU: 2-2; ATS: 2-2
Total: Under 39 (1-2) - SB V | Colts (-2.5) 16-13 Cowboys
Favorite SU: 3-2; ATS: 3-2
Total: Under 36 (1-3) - SB VI | Cowboys (-6) 24-3 Dolphins
Favorite SU: 4-2; ATS: 4-2
Total: Under 34 (1-4) - SB VII | Dolphins (-1) 14-7 Washington
Favorite SU: 5-2; ATS: 5-2
Total: Under 33 (1-5) - SB VIII | Dolphins (-6.5) 24-7 Vikings
Favorite SU: 6-2; ATS: 6-2
Total: Under 33 (1-6) - SB IX | Steelers (-3) 16-6 Vikings
Favorite SU: 7-2; ATS: 7-2
Total: Under 33 (1-7) - SB X | Steelers (-7) 21-17 Cowboys
Favorite SU: 8-2; ATS: 7-3
Total: Over 36 (2-7)
Super Bowl XI – Super Bowl XX
- SB XI | Raiders (-4) 32-14 Vikings
Favorite SU: 9-2; ATS: 8-3
Total: Over 38 (3-7) - SB XII | Cowboys (-6) 27-10 Broncos
Favorite SU: 10-2; ATS: 9-3
Total: Under 39 (3-8) - SB XIII | Steelers (-3.5) 35-31 Cowboys
Favorite SU: 11-2; ATS: 10-3
Total: Over 37 (4-8) - SB XIV | Steelers (-10.5) 31- 19 Rams
Favorite SU: 12-2; ATS: 11-3
Total: Over 36 (5-8) - SB XV | Raiders (+3) 27-10 Eagles
Favorite SU: 12-3; ATS: 11-4
Total: Under 37.5 (5-9) - SB XVI | 49ers (-1) 26-21 Bengals
Favorite SU: 13-3; ATS: 12-4
Total: Under 48 (5-10) - SB XVII | Washington (+3) 27-21 Dolphins
Favorite SU: 13-4; ATS: 12-5
Total: Over 36.5 (6-10) - SB XVIII | Raiders (+3) 38-9 Washington
Favorite SU: 13-5; ATS: 12-6
Total: Under 48 (6-11) - SB XIX | 49ers (-3.5) 38-16 Dolphins
Favorite SU: 14-5; ATS: 13-6
Total: Over 53.5 (7-11) - SB XX | Bears (-10) 46-10 Patriots
Favorite SU: 15-5; ATS: 14-6
Total: Over 37.5 (8-11)
Super Bowl XXI – Super Bowl XXX
- SB XXI | Giants (-9.5) 39-20 Broncos
Favorite SU: 16-5; ATS: 15-6
Total: Over 40 (9-11) - SB XXII | Washington (+3) 42-10 Broncos
Favorite SU: 16-6; ATS: 15-7
Total: Over 47 (10-11) - SB XXIII | 49ers (-7) 20-16 Bengals
Favorite SU: 17-6; ATS 15-8
Total: Under 48 (10-12) - SB XXIV | 49ers (-12) 55-10 Broncos
Favorite SU: 18-6; ATS: 16-8
Total: Over 48 (11-12) - SB XXV | Giants (+7) 20-19 Bills
Favorite SU: 18-7; ATS 16-9
Total: Under 40.5 (11-13) - SB XXVI | Washington (-7) 37-24 Bills
Favorite SU: 19-7; ATS 17-9
Total: Over 49 (12-13) - SB XXVII | Cowboys (-6.5) 52-17 Bills
Favorite SU: 20-7; ATS 18-9
Total: Under 50.5 (12-14) - SB XXVIII | Cowboys (-10.5) 30-13 Bills
Favorite SU: 21-7; ATS 19-9
Total: Under 50.5 (12-15) - SB XXIX | 49ers (-18.5) 49-23 Chargers
Favorite SU: 22-7; ATS 20-9
Total: Over 53.5 (13-15) - SB XXX | Cowboys (-13.5) 27-17 Steelers
Favorite SU: 23-7; ATS 20-10
Total: Under 51 (13-16)
Super Bowl XXXI – Super Bowl XL
- SB XXXI | Packers (-14) 35-21 Patriots
Favorite SU: 24-7; ATS 20-10-1
Total: Over 49 (14-16) - SB XXXII | Broncos (+11) 31-24 Packers
Favorite SU: 24-8; ATS: 20-11-1
Total: Over 49 (15-16) - SB XXXIII | Broncos (-7.5) 34-19 Falcons
Favorite SU: 25-8; ATS: 21-11-1
Total: Over 52.5 (16-16) - SB XXXIV | Rams (-7) 23-16 Titans
Favorite SU: 26-8; ATS: 21-11-2
Total: Under 45 (16-17) - SB XXXV | Ravens (-3) 33-7 Giants
Favorite SU: 27-8; ATS: 22-11-2
Total: Over 33 (17-17) - SB XXXVI | Patriots (+14) 20-17 Rams
Favorite SU: 27-9; ATS: 22-12-2
Total: Under 53 (17-18) - SB XXXVII | Buccaneers (+4) 48-21 Raiders
Favorite SU: 27-10; ATS: 22-13-2
Total: Over 44 (18-18) - SB XXXVIII | Patriots (-7) 32-29 Panthers
Favorite SU: 28-10; ATS: 22-14-2
Total: Over 37.5 (19-18) - SB XXXIX | Patriots (-7) 24-21 Eagles
Favorite SU: 29-10; ATS: 22-15-2
Total: Under 46.5 (19-19) - SB XL | Steelers (-4) 21-10 Seahawks
Favorite SU: 30-10; ATS: 23-15-2
Total: Under 47 (19-20)
Super Bowl XLI – Super Bowl L
- SB XLI | Colts (-7) 29-17 Bears
Favorite SU: 31-10; ATS: 24-15-2
Total: Under 47 (19-21) - SB XLII | Giants (+12) 17-14 Patriots
Favorite SU: 31-11; ATS: 24-16-2
Total: Under 55 (19-22) - SB XLIII | Steelers (-7) 27-23 Cardinals
Favorite SU: 32-11; ATS: 24-17-2
Total: Over 46 (20-22) - SB XLIV | Saints (+5) 31-17 Colts
Favorite SU: 32-12; ATS: 24-18-2
Total: Under 57 (20-23) - SB XLV | Packers (-3) 31-25 Steelers
Favorite SU: 33-12; ATS: 25-18-2
Total: Over 45 (21-23) - SB XLVI | Giants (+2.5) 21-17 Patriots
Favorite SU: 33-13; ATS: 25-19-2
Total: Under 53 (21-24) - SB XLVII | Ravens (+4.5) 34-31 49ers
Favorite SU: 33-14; ATS: 25-20-2
Total: Over 48 (22-24) - SB XLVIII | Seahawks (+2.5) 43-8 Broncos
Favorite SU: 33-15; ATS: 25-21-2
Total: Over 47.5 (23-24) - SB XLIX | Patriots (Pick) 28-24 Seahawks
Favorite SU: 33-15*; ATS: 25-21-2*
Total: Over 47.5 (24-24) - SB 50 | Broncos (+5) 24-10 Panthers
Favorite SU: 33-16; ATS: 25-22-2
Total: Under 43.5 (24-25)
*There was no favorite in SB XLIX
Super Bowl LI – Super Bowl LV
- SB LI | Patriots (-3) 34-28 Falcons
Favorite SU: 34-16; ATS: 26-22-2
Total: Over 57 (25-25) - SB LII | Eagles (+4) 41-33 Patriots
Favorite SU: 34-17; ATS: 26-23-2
Total: Over 49 (26-25) - SB LIII | Patriots (-2.5) 13-3 Rams
Favorite SU: 35-17; ATS: 27-23-2
Total: Under 56 (26-26) - SB LIV | Chiefs (-1.5) 31-20 49ers
Favorite SU: 36-17; ATS: 28-23-2
Total: Under 53 (26-27) - SB LV | Buccaneers (+3) 31-9 Chiefs
Favorite SU: 36-18; ATS: 28-24-2
Total: Under 55 (26-28) - SB LVI | Rams (-4) 23-20 Bengals
Favorite SU: 37-18; ATS: 28-25-2
Total: Under 48.5 (26-29)