When the Philadelphia Eagles drafted Jalen Hurts with the 53rd overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the whole world tilted its head like a dog who’d been told it can’t have table food. Less than a year prior, the Eagles had extended Carson Wentz to a four-year, $128 million contract. Three years later, Hurts is an MVP candidate, and Wentz is on his third NFL team in three seasons.
Jalen Hurts Is an MVP Candidate on a Terrific Offensive Roster
The conversation surrounding Hurts is a difficult one to navigate. He’s had an outstanding season and is even one of the league’s MVP candidates. However, he won’t win MVP, nor should he.
The Eagles arguably have the best offensive roster in the NFL. Hurts throws to a borderline top-five receiver, another borderline No. 1 WR, a borderline top-five tight end, and Quez Watkins, who is absolutely no slouch for being a third receiving option. Moreover, Hurts throws to them behind what is unquestionably the best offensive line in the NFL, with one of the best young play-callers in the league.
However, those assets are unfairly used to criticize Hurts, who is in only his second season as a full-time starter. He’s discounted because his general manager was able to do what so many of his peers fail at doing; maximizing the talent around a quarterback on a rookie contract.
Hurts is the evolution of QB play in the NFL. While he’s nowhere near a finished product as a passer, he’s shown steady improvements since his early days at Alabama. And his rushing ability adds an element to the offense that makes them difficult to defend, even on his worst days as a passer.
The scariest thing about Hurts for his NFC opponents is that he’s far from being a finished product as a passer, and the level he’s at is already good enough to lead a good roster to a 14-1 record as a starter.
The Sword of Destiny Has 2 Edges
The saying has confused many a nerd over the past half-decade or so as The Witcher series became popularized. The first edge is Geralt of Rivia, the Witcher. Depending on how the reader analyzes the situation, the second is either death or Cirilla, another character in the story.
Its context isn’t too different in its case. Hurts is one edge of the sword. The other is his surroundings.
To be a team destined for a Super Bowl victory, they must receive adequate quarterback play relative to the surrounding roster. That’s as true for Patrick Mahomes as it is for Trent Dilfer. The questions and expectations for each QB are unique, but too often, we unfairly criticize some players while propping up others.
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Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Mahomes probably aren’t carrying the 2008 Detroit Lions to a winning record. The 2017 Chiefs finished 10-6. Brady’s first three Super Bowls came on the backs of great defensive and special-teams performances. Manning was throwing to one Hall of Fame receiver and another that is knocking down the door for his own gold jacket.
Every good quarterback who has won did so with a good team around him. Those are the two edges of the sword.
Hurts Proves It’s Time To Start Understanding the QB Run
New things can be scary. In the NFL, we haven’t seen a quarterback who consistently is able to top 100 carries and remain healthy in the long term. However, many falsely believe that “running QBs” are hurt more often than traditional pocket passers.
The truth is a player is more likely to be injured inside the pocket than scrambling or running. While there haven’t been enough instances of truly using a QB as a consistent addition to the run game to have concrete evidence, anecdotally and adjacently, we can assume that compounding hits is most likely a detriment to one’s career length.
There’s a reason why running backs don’t often last long in the league with a big workload. It’s not a hit or two here and there that often ends their careers. The accumulation of hits eventually ends things for them or so demoralizes their athletic ability so that they’re no longer effective.
Hurts certainly takes hits. Every time a QB sneaks, there’s an inevitable cringe from fans about the potential outcomes.
But Hurts is not Josh Allen. Allen, like Cam Newton before him, invited contact. Hell, Allen unnecessarily seeks out contact at every opportunity. He wants to act as the concrete wall a defender is running into.
If Hurts isn’t the most intelligent runner in the NFL, he’s part of the top tier. He’s always been incredible in the option game. He doesn’t often make the wrong read, and when he does, it’s often based on the side of being careful and giving the ball in a 50-50 situation.
When Hurts does pull the ball, he’s one of the best at picking up only what is necessary and getting down before contact arrives. The only player better at avoiding hits is Kyler Murray, who’d rather study film for eight hours a day than get his head taken off on a late slide.
The Value in QB Runs
According to Sports Info Solutions, Hurts had 104 attempts that were non-scramble attempts. No other QB in the NFL had that usage rate on designed runs. Hurts’ value is abundantly clear when we look at the parameters of 100 or more carries.
He averaged 0.34 EPA per attempt. The next-closest player was Tyler Allgeier at 0.05. The difference between one and two is the difference between two and… the end of the list. The lowest EPA average was -0.18 per attempt. So the difference in value between Hurts’ rushes and second place was greater than second to the worst among qualified candidates.
Even when dropping the carry qualifier to 40 attempts, Hurts sits at the top of the list. Six of the top 10 overall are quarterbacks. Justin Fields had a higher overall rushing EPA when including scrambles, but Hurts showed how valuable he was by design. That 0.34 mark is higher than Mahomes’ dropback EPA this season.
But there is a secondary value in the QB run. It helps one’s entire offensive attack. The QB threat adds a gap to the run defense. Adding a gap to defend while simultaneously trying to cover A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Watkins, and Dallas Goedert is like trying to fit a married couple on a twin bed with a fully grown Great Pyrenees in between. It doesn’t all fit.
Growth as a Passer
Hurts has come a long way from being a mechanical run-first quarterback relying on RPOs at Alabama. Over the years, his throwing motion has become far more fluid. He’s a good downfield passer, and when he’s protected well (which is quite often), Hurts is lethal to the intermediate areas of the field. According to rbsdm.com, he ranked fifth in CPOE, and Next Gen Stats had him one spot higher.
Hurts’ more significant growth comes in the form of his processing sharpness and comfort attacking the middle of the field. While it doesn’t take prime Dan Marino to throw slants over the middle to Brown, the Eagles’ offense has evolved around Hurts’ mental progression. He’s no Joe Burrow, but he doesn’t have to be yet. Hurts finished fifth in dropback EPA this season as a passer and is still improving.
His work ethic is rumored to be pretty legendary. But Brian Johnson is a bit of a secret weapon for the Eagles. He’s a long-time friend of the Hurts family, and he’s an incredibly qualified quarterbacks coach. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Hurts become an even better processor next season, especially when it looks like Shane Steichen will return as OC.
Hurts is far from a perfect product, as one might assume from a second-year starter. His performance against pressure leaves room for improvement. While it’s unfair to dock Hurts for having an elite OL, it’s right to acknowledge that based on his splits between pressured and kept clean, he wouldn’t have had an MVP-level year without his blockers.
Hurts finished toward the top of most passing categories unpressured while falling much farther down the list when pressured.
Kept Clean:
YPA: 8.9 (second)
ANY/A: 9.7 (first)
Positive EPA %: 55.1% (eighth)
WAR: 2.8 (third)
Points Above Average: 0.180 (first)
TD %: 5.8 (fourth)
INT %: 0.9 (fourth)
Pressured:
YPA: 5.6 (20th)
ANY/A: 2.1 (23rd)
Positive EPA %: 25.2% (25th)
WAR: -0.0 (16th)
Points Above Average: -0.087 ( 16th)
TD %: 1.7% (26th)
INT %: 2.6% (13th)
Time under task is important here. Most who land at the top of efficiency metrics under pressure are veteran quarterbacks. It’s something that Hurts should become more comfortable navigating as he sees it more often.
Whether the Eagles win or lose on Sunday, Hurts had a fantastic season and is just getting started on his journey as an NFL quarterback. If he continues improving as a passer from where he is now, Hurts will be able to continue on this torrent production pace even if his surroundings begin to deteriorate as he gets paid and the offensive line begins to age.
And if he takes a big leap in passing next season while staying healthy, Hurts very well could end up being the league MVP in his third season as a starting QB.