If the Kansas City Chiefs are the NFL’s version of Superman, then the Cincinnati Bengals are their kryptonite. The Bengals have defeated the Chiefs in each of their previous three meetings, including last year’s AFC Championship Game, when Kansas City allowed Cincinnati to erase an 18-point deficit.
With an AFC title game rematch on tap, can the Chiefs finally take down the Bengals, even with an injured Patrick Mahomes under center? Let’s run through three critical factors for a potential Kansas City victory, including how the Chiefs manage Mahomes and his bum ankle.
3 Keys to Victory for the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game
Rely on Patrick Mahomes Executing From the Pocket
Mahomes is fully expected to play on Sunday despite suffering a high ankle sprain in the Divisional Round, but it remains to be seen how much the injury will limit him against the Bengals. Mahomes was routinely hobbling against the Jacksonville Jaguars, struggling with handoffs and failing to orchestrate any of the second-reaction plays we’ve become accustomed to.
Per Next Gen Stats, Mahomes threw for a league-best 881 yards while on the run during the regular season. But after injuring his ankle against Jacksonville, he threw just one of his final 18 passes on the run.
“There was just a couple throws here and there where I tried to plant off that foot, and it didn’t let me kind of plant like I usually do,” Mahomes said this week. “And so, a couple throws I didn’t make. I told Coach I want to still throw it downfield, and so we were able to make some throws there after the first few drives, and I think he got a little confidence that I could protect myself.”
The good news is that Mahomes isn’t solely an out-of-structure creator — he’s the best quarterback in the NFL, the presumptive MVP, and more than capable of winning exclusively from the pocket.
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The bad news is that the Bengals’ Lou Anarumo is not only one of the NFL’s top defensive coordinators but also a regular thorn in Mahomes’ side. How Anarumo chooses to defend a limited Mahomes should be instructive on Sunday.
If Cincinnati leans drop-eight coverage — as they did in last year’s AFC Championship Game — and attempts to flood passing zones with extra defenders, Mahomes and the Chiefs might have to go to screens and bubble throws to create chunk yardage.
Dropping eight means the Bengals would only send three pass rushers, allowing Kansas City running backs Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacecho to avoid protection responsibilities and serve as checkdown options.
Anarumo and Co. will likely also try to heat up the injured Mahomes by sending pressure looks. The Chiefs are already deploying a lot of heavy, two- and three-tight-end formations, and these personnel groups could help K.C.’s offensive line protect against blitzes.
McKinnon, meanwhile, is one of the best pass-protecting running backs in the NFL. He’ll be able to block Bengals corner Mike Hilton if he comes on slot blitzes, but McKinnon can also stymy linebackers and edge defenders in order to protect Mahomes.
If Mahomes has to win primarily from the pocket, he’ll need help from his pass-catching weapons — especially those not named Travis Kelce.
Get Non-Travis Kelce Weapons Involved
Kelce is such a dominant force in the Chiefs’ offense that he can’t be stopped even when everyone knows what’s coming. Against the Jaguars, Kelce tied a career-high with 17 targets and set a new career-best with 14 receptions, generating an absurd 52% target share.
Kelce is a future Hall of Famer, but playing Jacksonville was typically a treat for even pedestrian tight ends in 2022. The Jaguars got regularly torched by TEs this season and ranked dead last in DVOA against the position.
That’s not to say Kelce can’t be his usual dominant self against the Bengals, as he hit Cincinnati with a 10-95-1 line in last year’s AFC title game. But the Bengals largely contained him in their previous two regular-season meetings, holding Kelce under 60 yards receiving in both contests.
Defensive back Tre Flowers, whom Cincinnati claimed off waivers last October, has worked as a Kelce stopper. However, he only played six snaps in December’s Bengals-Chiefs game, and a hamstring issue kept him out of last week’s Divisional Round.
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If Flowers can’t go on Sunday, Cincinnati could use first-round pick Dax Hill in coverage against Kelce, but he’d likely need some help. Additionally, the Bengals have also had some success using two linebackers in bracket coverage against Kelce.
Cincinnati ranks fifth in DVOA against tight ends, but they’re 31st against No. 2 receivers and 24th against all other tertiary options. As such, Mahomes might have to come off his primary receiver in Kelce and get the rest of the Chiefs’ weaponry involved.
Bengals corner Eli Apple is always susceptible to the deep ball, so Marquez Valdes-Scantling could get free over the top. Kadarius Toney received seven targets against Jacksonville, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take on a more significant role against Cincinnati, either as a receiver or a runner.
The Chiefs could also try to get their run game going, something they attempted against Jacksonville. Pacheco managed 95 yards on 12 carries, but Kansas City posted just a 35% rushing success rate overall. The Bengals are middling in run defense efficiency, but they’ve been much stouter up front since defensive tackle DJ Reader returned from injury in Week 11.
Disguise Coverages and Get Pressure on Joe Burrow
Suffice it to say the Chiefs are still struggling to find a way to defend Joe Burrow. In three games over the past two seasons, Burrow has diced up Kansas City, completing 88 of 108 attempts for 982 yards, eight touchdowns, and one interception.
Burrow is playing at an exceptionally high level, leaving Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo in a tough position as he game plans to defend the Bengals quarterback. Given that Burrow is winning both physically and mentally, Kansas City has to find a way to disrupt his rhythm and timing and put him in more precarious positions.
The Chiefs are in the middle of the pack in blitz rate, but Spagnuolo will undoubtedly draw up some exotic pressure packages in an attempt to get to Burrow. He’ll have to be careful, though, as Burrow has been lethal against extra rushers. He’s averaging 9.0 yards per attempt when blitzed this season, per PFF.
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As such, Kansas City will have to hope their Chris Jones-led front four can get pressure on Burrow. If the Chiefs can rely solely on their defensive line to attack the pocket, they can drop more bodies into coverage.
Nearly everyone expected Cincinnati’s offensive line — playing backups at left tackle, right guard, and right tackle — to struggle against the Bills, but they largely held up. Playing against the Chiefs could be a more difficult test, especially as center Ted Karras fights through a knee injury while battling Jones in the middle.
Kansas City will also have to find a way to disguise its coverage schemes. Burrow got rid of the ball quicker than any quarterback besides Tom Brady this season, so the Chiefs need to figure out how to make the Bengals’ signal-caller take an extra beat. Even a short pause could give K.C.’s pass rushers the time they need to affect the pocket.
Whether that means spinning safeties at the snap or showing man looks and then shifting to zone (or vice versa), the Chiefs have to make Burrow second-guess himself. That’s easier said than done, but it might be their only chance to slow down a Bengals offense that’s on fire.