My San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles prediction looks at maybe the best two teams remaining in the playoffs. They are within hundredths of a decimal point of one another in scoring behavior rate (SBR) and the top two teams remaining in scoring behavior prevention rate (SBPR).
My Behavior Bets sports betting model has identified value with these 49ers vs. Eagles odds. The spread presents an intriguing opportunity to cash a win, as the books think this game is essentially a toss-up, and I think the underdog prevails.
49ers vs. Eagles Odds | NFC Championship
- Spread
49ers +2.5 - Moneyline
49ers +122 - Over/Under
UNDER 45.5
*49ers vs. Eagles Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook
I went 11-5 during the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, going up +161.5u and sporting a +269.15% ROI. It is 30-10-1 in the NFL playoffs so far.
For the season, the model is 183-88-7** on bets against the spread, the moneyline, and props.
Let’s see if we can keep it going starting with this San Francisco vs. Philadelphia prediction. Make sure you also check out my full NFL playoff bracket prediction. I have made it through the first two rounds unscathed.
**Stats on the Behavior Bets model can be tracked at Pikkit, the best bet-tracking app on the market.
49ers vs. Eagles Prediction
The score is 42-35. Brock Purdy faces 3rd-and-goal. He stands in the pocket with pressure closing in right in his face. He delivers a strike for a touchdown to make it 42-41, the final score after a failed two-point conversion.
No, that’s not the 49ers vs. Eagles prediction I’m making here. That’s what happened the last time Jalen Hurts and Purdy were on the field as opponents. This time, the stakes couldn’t be higher, with the winner earning a trip to the sport’s highest prize.
Purdy will need to be as reliable as he was then. He likely won’t need to come back from a 21-point deficit, given that his Niners defense likely won’t give that up. But he will need to keep pacing this team to the best SBR, not just remaining in the playoffs, but in the league, since he became the starter.
The 49ers are scoring one full point every 1:03 of possession time. That’s nine seconds better than everyone else. The 49ers are third in the league this year, averaging 5.9 possessions per game. At an average nine-second advantage in SBR, they’re earning nearly a full point more than the Eagles per possession. That’s huge.
San Francisco cannot falter now, and if they hit that mark, they’ll be the ones headed to Phoenix, according to this 49ers vs. Eagles prediction. The only thing in their way is Philadelphia’s defense.
Eagles’ Defense Must Stop the Run
The Eagles come into this one holding opponents to one full point scored for every 2:00+ of possession time in their last three games. That is their best three-game stretch this season and more than half the pace of the 49ers’ offense.
However, those three games were two against the Giants and one against the Saints. Not exactly world-beaters.
The game before that, against Dallas? Philly gave up one full point every 50 seconds of Cowboys possession time. You’ll recall their opponent, the 49ers, just held Dallas to one full point for every 2:10 of possession time.
So what Eagles defense will we get? Their x3.3 bounce rate makes them the most inconsistent defense remaining in the playoffs. This is not the offense to be inconsistent against. This also isn’t the Giants or Saints. The key for Philadelphia is to use their elite pass rush to get Purdy off of his game.
Yet, Purdy’s pass game is based on the 49ers’ ability to run the ball, and this is where the Eagles are especially vulnerable. They give up the seventh-highest yards per carry this season at 4.7 yards per rush attempt. It’s even worse in their last three games, giving up 4.9 yards per rush. Against the Giants? They surrendered 5.9 yards per attempt.
If the Eagles allow that to happen on Sunday, they’ll lose. Yes, they won those other games. But those other teams are not the 49ers, who thrive off of the run game. Not only do they control the clock with it, but they eat in the middle of the field with the pass because of how well they run it.
I think the 49ers run it just well enough to score 24 points.
Jalen Hurts Needs His Arm
The Eagles have been a force from all angles on offense. They have the second-best SBR in the conference and are neck and neck with the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging one full point for every 1:12 of possession time. Not only are they scoring at a high rate, but they’re giving themselves loads of opportunities by controlling the clock.
Philadelphia is eighth in the league in ball control, and their RPO and QB run game are devastating. The threat of running on every play from anywhere in the backfield has been keeping defenses on their heels all year and allowing big passing plays down the field.
The question is, can the Eagles survive with a limited run game? They’re fourth in the league in rush yards per game and run it the third most on average. It’s clearly a huge part of what Philadelphia does.
The pass is where they are trending in the wrong direction. Over every team’s last three games, the Eagles rank 18th in the league in passing yards per game. That is not so alarming when you consider it is the run that sets the pass up for them. But what my 49ers vs. Eagles prediction comes down to is whether or not Philadelphia can pass it when they need to if the run is shut down.
49ers Must Also Stop the Run
The 49ers’ defense is the best in football. That’s not a surprise to anyone. Week in and week out, they make teams one-dimensional. They were the second-best team in football in shutting down the run — behind only the Tennessee Titans — allowing only 79 yards per game.
As a result, San Francisco ended up seeing the least amount of attempts per game. Teams simply give up trying to run against them. Again, not a surprise when they’re only allowing 3.4 yards per attempt — best in football.
This will be the 49ers’ key to success against the Eagles. It will be their best against Philadelphia’s best. If they can control the run and force Hurts into a pocket passer, San Francisco’s odds of winning go up dramatically.
Not only will it take Philly out of doing what they are hoping to do, and do well, but it will also get the ball back more frequently to the fastest-paced offense in football. The law of large numbers suggests that the more opportunities the 49ers get, the more they’ll score.
MORE: Bengals vs. Chiefs Prediction, Odds, and Picks for Conference Championship
We saw that even this past week against the Cowboys. San Francisco started really slow on offense against a good defense in the first half, but they kept getting the ball back and eventually broke through for a touchdown.
In a week against an elite offense, the defense did its job to give the offense enough opportunities to put up points. To do that this week, they will need to shut down the elite run game of the Eagles.
In the Behavior Bets 49ers vs. Eagles prediction, they do it and hold Philly to 21 points.
49ers vs. Eagles Prediction
49ers 24, Eagles 21