If you enjoy making NFL bets on player touchdowns, then welcome to the Divisional Round rundown of our favorite anytime TD scorer predictions for all four games this weekend. We’ve analyzed each game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are the best bets to reach the end zone. All prop bets are taken from DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetMGM.
NFL Anytime TD Scorer Predictions for the Divisional Round
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
We’ll move in chronological order, beginning with the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars and continuing on with the Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants and Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals, and then ending with the San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys.
Travis Kelce (-140) — DraftKings
To be clear, these are not favorable odds for the all-world, 33-year-old tight end. Despite posting another prolific stat line this season, Travis Kelce has scored in only seven of 17 contests (41%). He endured a worse percentage only once in these previous five seasons.
But these are the playoffs, and as much as Kelce has dominated in countless regular seasons, he’s been a scoring machine in postseasons. Kelce’s reached the end zone 12 times in 12 playoff games since 2017, scoring in nine of them (75%). Additionally, he owns a sterling 82% postseason catch rate since 2019 (73 receptions on 89 targets).
There are no guarantees . . . ever. But the best receiver in the best offense is, arguably, one of the best bets we can make. Kelce should step up once again.
Christian Kirk (+200) — FanDuel
As you’re about to see, Christian Kirk is part of a hedge bet. I’m not sold on the Chiefs’ secondary slowing Trevor Lawrence and his cadre of formerly dismissed receivers. Of course, Kirk was the offseason prize for this rebuilding franchise. But his fellow receivers weren’t widely expected to post career years.
MORE: Fantasy WR Rankings Divisional Round
I’m buying into Kirk as a strong scoring threat against a defense yielding the NFL’s most receiving scores (33).
Zay Jones (+215) — DraftKings
I believe there are better than 50/50 odds of Kirk or Zay Jones scoring in this one. There’s an outside shot that both will hit paydirt.
The 27-year-old Jones entered last season as a tertiary option for the Raiders. He ended the year reminding everyone why he was a 2017 second-round draft pick.
Jones is more of a scoring threat than his five TDs this season suggest. He could easily be at eight to 10 if some things broke slightly differently. For example, if Lawrence hadn’t inexplicably thrown over Jones’ head when he was wide open in the end zone against Tennessee in Week 18. Assuredly, he’s a breakout candidate this weekend.
Kadarius Toney (+240) — FanDuel
It’s quite possible that Kadarius Toney will enter 2023 as the Chiefs’ No. 1 wideout. Much depends on whether the team wins the Super Bowl next month. If they do, they might re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster and keep the corps together. If they fall short, however, then we might see them pursue DeAndre Hopkins or some other instant-impact wideout.
In the meantime, Toney is the X-factor for a team that doesn’t have a true No. 1 WR. He’s arguably the most talented and is increasingly gelling with Patrick Mahomes.
Dallas Goedert (+210) — FanDuel
When Dallas Goedert got hurt in Week 10, missing the Eagles’ next five games, he was fifth in the league in yards after the catch, trailing only Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey, Cooper Kupp, and Justin Jefferson. It was one of the most fascinating stats I’d seen for the Eagles this season, and it reinforced just how important their star TE was to their offense.
For all the deserved buzz about other Philly stars, Goedert is irreplaceable. These past two years, 87 of his 111 catches (78%) have resulted in first downs. He’s earned a career-high 79.7% catch rate this season. And four of his five career TD receptions from Jalen Hurts have come from inside the 10-yard line.
If they don’t run the ball in from up close, Goedert is a good bet to snag a score.
Isaiah Hodgins (+265) — DraftKings
Assuming the Eagles score 20+, the Giants won’t be able to lean on Saquon Barkley all game. And frankly, they probably don’t need to. But they might want to, given the Eagles’ elite pass defense. After all, Philly has yielded the fewest passing yards and is tied for fourth with 17 interceptions.
So if we believe Daniel Jones will need to throw as much as he did against Minnesota (or more), then we can go all in on Isaiah Hodgins, who’s picked up a touchdown in four of his last five outings.
Richie James (+370) — DraftKings
Ah, but we could use a hedge. Because the Eagles will be ready to try to shut down Hodgins.
Richie James is a true wild card. I thought he’d do better against Minnesota, highlighting last week that among all NFL wideouts with 30+ receptions, he has the best catch rate (81.4%) — as well as the best catch rate since 2018 among WRs with 70+ targets.
Simply incredible. And James is no scoring slouch, having hit paydirt in four of his final seven regular season games. Ignore him at your (relative) peril.
Stefon Diggs (Even) — DraftKings
Moving on to the Sunday games, beginning with the Bills vs. Bengals. Let’s not overthink this. Stefon Diggs should rise to the occasion against a secondary that had the good fortune of facing Baltimore two straight weeks.
Tee Higgins (+180) — DraftKings
His odds are too good to pass up. The Bills have surrendered the fourth-most WR TDs in the league. No doubt, the Bengals will generate at least a couple of scoring drives against a defense that’s looked more vulnerable than last year’s.
MORE: Fantasy Flex Rankings Divisional Round
Ja’Marr Chase (+115 — DraftKings) might be the more popular bet. And surely, he has a great shot at a touchdown. But I prefer the more favorable returns offered by the near-elite Tee Higgins.
Deebo Samuel (+110) — DraftKings
I pushed Deebo Samuel last week in prop bets and DFS, believing talent would prevail against the overmatched Seahawks. Interestingly, while not as bullish this week, I’m comfortable betting on him to score over any other Niner.
Why? Well, Christian McCaffrey’s line is -200 (DraftKings). That’s a poor return, even for a near-sure thing. Only one team has given up fewer RB touchdowns than Dallas this season (the Patriots). And only one team has given up fewer TE scores (the Bills).
The Cowboys’ greatness on defense has forced opponents to look to their wideouts more often, culminating in 22 touchdowns — more WR scores than any other team has surrendered. If the Niners score, Samuel probably has the best chance.
Dak Prescott (+400) — DraftKings
Another guy I pushed last week in props and DFS. Dak Prescott remains one of the most underappreciated “great” NFL QBs of his time. As I pointed out a few weeks ago, in recent years, Prescott-led offenses have averaged 30+ points per game. He and his teammates and coaches know how to maximize this team’s output, and that was on full display against the Bucs.
It should be on display again versus the 49ers. While San Francisco has been incredibly stingy against the run and TEs (similar to Dallas, as we now know), this presents an opportunity for a dual-threat QB like Prescott.