Our Jaguars vs. Chiefs prediction for the Divisional Round forecasts what should be an exciting game. Trevor Lawrence is fresh off an incredible come-from-behind performance last week against the Chargers, The Chiefs had the week off, lying in wait, much like a jaguar stalking its prey. Will Jacksonville have enough time to escape with an upset?
My Behavior Bets sports betting model has identified value with these Jaguars vs. Chiefs odds. The spread presents an intriguing opportunity to cash a win. I also have a winning margin prop that should have some value to bettors looking for extra fun.
Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds | Divisional Round
- Spread
Jaguars +8.5 - Moneyline
Chiefs -440 - Over/Under
UNDER 52
*Odds provided by, and my personal bets, placed at Caesars Sportsbook
Jaguars vs. Chiefs Prediction
The Behavior Bets sports betting model went 15-3-1 on Wild Card Weekend, going up 37.3u and sporting a +93.16% ROI. For the season, the model is 172-83-7* on bets against the spread, on the moneyline and props. Let’s see if we can keep it going starting with this Jacksonville vs. Kansas City prediction. Make sure you also check out my full NFL playoff bracket prediction.
*Stats on the Behavior Bets model can be tracked at Pikkit, the best bet-tracking app on the market.
The Chiefs’ offense is as highflying and explosive as they come. Averaging .945 points per minute of possession time in scoring behavior rate (SBR), they sit third among playoff teams behind only Dallas and six games of Brock Purdy. However, they have been the most consistent of any playoff team in hitting that average and are the safest bet to put up points, showing no growth or decay across 18 weeks.
In four of their last five games, they have scored at an SBR of at least 1 point per minute of possession time. The key for them is to possess the ball. If allowed to have it for more than 30 minutes, they are as safe a bet as any to put up over 30 points. Too often, they get caught playing down to lesser opponents with drops or turnovers, which limit their possession time.
That should not be an issue. They know better than most what a playoff game entails and that every team who made it this far is a threat. It will not be lost on them that their opponent this week got here by overcoming a 27-point deficit.
In their favor against this opponent? The Jaguars have allowed opponents to have the ball for 30 or more minutes in five of their last seven games. That would be a recipe for a ticket back home to Jacksonville if that were to happen this week, especially with the Jaguars on pace to give up 0.9 points per minute of opponent possession time in score prevention behavior rate (SPBR).
The Chiefs are projected to score at least 27 points in this Jaguars vs. Chiefs prediction.
Time is of the Essence for the Jaguars
The Jaguars needed the essence of time last week and, in the first half, due to turnovers, didn’t get it. Down 27 points midway through the second quarter, the game was supposed to be over. Jacksonville had a 98.5% probability at that point of losing, according to ESPN.
The Jaguars pulled off the improbable. I projected them to win the game by one point, but it is impossible to project anything like how that game played out…except for one element.
Behaviors can only occur in windows of time or opportunity — something we behaviorists call “Temporal Locus.” If given enough time or opportunity to perform behaviors, the profile usually comes to light.
Jacksonville had the ball for only 37% of the time in the first half, ten percentage points below their season average. In the second half, they reversed and held it above their season average and put up the points. Over the course of the game, they hit their SBR target, producing the one point win that was forecasted.
The Chargers are a team where you can get away with that. They don’t have the same SBR as the Chiefs, coming in under 0.8 points per minute of possession time in 7 of their last ten games.
If the Jaguars have a first half possessing the ball under 40% again, they may not have the time or opportunity to catch up.
The Chiefs’ defense is projected to give up only 0.65 points of SPBR. That’s enough to keep Jacksonville in check. They won’t get caught sleeping on the Jaguars, especially after what they saw them do to Los Angeles.
This should not be read to mean Jacksonville won’t score. They are projected to have a respectable SBR of 0.9 points. But for the purposes of this Jaguars vs. Chiefs prediction, it likely won’t be enough.
Jaguars vs. Chiefs Prediction
Jaguars 24, Chiefs 27