The Baltimore Ravens (6) will travel to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (3) in an AFC North showdown on Wild Card Weekend. Without QB Lamar Jackson and a backup in Tyler Huntley who is coming into this game with some injuries, the Bengals’ defense should be in for a big day.
However, this is the third time these teams are meeting this season, which makes it a bit more difficult to make this Ravens vs. Bengals prediction on Wild Card Weekend. Let’s take a look at the two teams and what we can expect in today’s game.
Ravens vs. Bengals Prediction
| Team | Off EPA | Def EPA | Pass EPA | Pass D EPA | Net EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.004 (17th) | -0.002 (14th) | -0.020 (21st) | 0.054 (21st) | 0.006 (10th) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.081 (5th) | -0.043 (8th) | 0.153 (5th) | -0.022 (7th) | 0.124 (5th) |
The Bengals have been delicately navigating the difficult task of advocating for the difficult circumstances that a canceled game has given them specifically while not being disrespectful of the near tragedy that caused it. But they won in Week 18 to secure home field in the first round of the playoffs.
This would be a fantastic divisional rematch, but the Ravens won’t have Lamar Jackson, who has been the driver of their offense over the past few years.
The Ravens without Jackson have averaged -0.082 expected points per dropback. That is technically better than what the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans put together this season, but it’s not a good sign to be put in that category of comparison.
The Ravens have been disappointing defensively this year, and injuries to players like Marcus Williams, Kyle Fuller, and Marcus Peters have made it difficult for the Ravens to play their preferred style of undercutting zone-match style defense paired with strategic blitzing. Instead, they’ve been prone to give up big plays and give up chunks of yardage in the run game.
They still have talent, and the linebacker unit is remarkable, so they have been able to manage some good performances throughout the season. However, it’s not where it once was, and that creates problems for an offense that needs Jackson to be successful.
The pass rush will probably be fine against a beleaguered Cincinnati Bengals offensive line, especially without La’el Collins or Alex Kappa. However, it will still have to get to Joe Burrow, who has demonstrated phenomenal pocket presence and movement to get out of pressure. The Bengals’ offense has been redesigned to accommodate their OL problems, and it has resulted in a remarkably explosive offense that takes full advantage of Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase.
That offense should find a way to get behind the Ravens’ defense, who ranks second-to-last in the NFL in EPA per dropback since Week 10 and 29th on deep passes specifically.
On the other side of the ball, the Bengals’ defense has quietly been one of the best in the NFL, and the play of Jessie Bates III, Trey Hendrickson, and Mike Hilton has been huge for the franchise. But getting additional good performances from Germaine Pratt, one of the most underrated linebackers in the NFL, and nose tackle D.J. Reader has been big as well.
That’s why the Bengals rank eighth in EPA per dropback since Week 10. It will be tough for the Ravens to find a way around the overall design of the defense, which has been constructed differently than most effective defenses around the NFL. They run fewer Cover 3, Cover 4, and Cover 6 looks than the rest of the league, eschewing the trend toward Fangio/Staley principles on the back end.
They’re mostly a Cover 2, Cover 1, and Cover 0 defense meant to enable their blitzes or bracket coverages. They don’t blitz very often, but when they do, they tend to go all out.
They’ve mixed in a fair amount of man coverage and zone coverage and have done a good job stymieing opposing offenses. Against Anthony Brown in Week 18, they had their best performance, averaging 0.41 expected points gained per opponent passing dropback.
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They have been a bit dependent on turnover production, which may be an issue going forward. But against Brown at quarterback, it should be fine. The Bengals are favored by a touchdown, and it’s easy to take them to win here, perhaps by more than that margin. I expect the Bengals to create some turnovers and secure a big day for both of their receivers.