Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog Fantasy, managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stats. Here are my top Underdog Pick’em plays for the Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Wild Card round pick’em contest.
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers: Top Underdog Pick’ems To Target
Underdog Pick’ems allows fantasy managers to predict stats and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x your entry fee or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts.
The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s take a look at this week’s Underdog Pick’ems.
Ezekiel Elliott Lower Than 7.5 Receiving Yards
Once a very solid receiving back, Ezekiel Elliott’s passing game role has been reduced to blocking, or just not on the field. Earlier in his career, Elliott would run well over 20 routes per game. This season, he’s averaging 12.8 routes run.
Elliott surpassed seven receiving yards in a game just four times this season and didn’t catch a pass in each of his past two games.
This would be a good pick regardless of the opponent. Against the Bucs, it’s even better. On the season, just 10.4% of Tampa Bay’s total receiving yards allowed went to running backs. I’m not sure Zeke even gets targeted tonight.
Tony Pollard Lower Than 10.5 Rush Attempts
On the ground, it’s a different story. Despite Tony Pollard being the far more efficient back, Elliott will still out-carry him. Pollard has carried the ball at least 11 times in nine games this season. However, five of them were in games where the Cowboys experienced significant positive game script.
While I do expect them to beat the Buccaneers, I don’t expect Dallas to wipe the floor with them. Additionally, the Bucs are more of a pass-funnel defense. On the season, they faced 20.7 rush attempts per game against them. Even if we assume just half of them go to Elliott (when it will almost certainly be more than half), that still puts Pollard at 10.
I expect Pollard to be involved plenty tonight, but more as a receiver. The Cowboys should go pass heavy, limiting Pollard to 8-10 carries.
Rachaad White Lower Than 35.5 Rushing Yards
This is my favorite of the three. My only regret is I liked it a lot more when it was 40.5 earlier in the week.
When these teams met way back in Week 1 of the regular season, Leonard Fournette ran for 127 yards on 21 carries. Since then, the Cowboys have been much improved against the run. Their defense is far from elite, but their 4.3 yards-per-carry allowed is better than most.
Whether it’s Fournette or Rachaad White, neither is particularly good. Per Ian Hartitz, White and Fournette rank dead last in yards after contact per carry among running backs with at least 100 carries on the season. Simply put, these are two RBs among the worst in the NFL at running the football.
In Week 13, Tampa Bay started their timeshare between White and Fournette, with them basically alternating drives. Since then, White has reached 40 rushing yards just once.
MORE: Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White Fantasy Playoffs Strategy
This is the postseason — teams are going to put their most reliable players on the field. We saw this on Saturday with the Jaguars. JaMycal Hasty had been playing 25-30% of the snaps more recently. Yet, against the Chargers, it was all Travis Etienne Jr.
I can see a similar thing happening with the Bucs. It’s very clear that Tom Brady trusts Fournette more than White. In high-leverage situations, we’re likely getting Fournette regardless of whose “turn” it is.
Furthermore, Fournette could just play better. If that happens, there’s no reason they wouldn’t just abandon the split and leave Fournette out here. I don’t think White gets close to 30 rushing yards.
