For the third time in three years, it seems, the Houston Texans are hitting the reset button ahead of the 2023 NFL Draft. New coach, new quarterback, new direction. But who will that quarterback be? At second overall, the Texans have quite the choice to make.
Who Should the Houston Texans Pick at Second Overall?
In the 2021 NFL Draft, the Texans selected Davis Mills in the third round. Mills ended up starting the majority of the 2021 season under then-head coach David Culley.
It was a tumultuous time for Houston. Starting quarterback Deshaun Watson had first stepped away from the team due to a trade dispute. Sexual harassment allegations kept Watson away and left a cloud over the Texans organization.
Mills wasn’t spectacular as a rookie. But amidst all the uncertainty, he gave the Texans a hint of stability to cling to. So when Culley was fired, and Lovie Smith was brought on in his place, Mills kept the starting job and was given a chance to prove his worth long term.
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Instead, Mills regressed, and the Texans continued to underwhelm under Smith. They went 3-13-1 in 2022. And just like Culley, Smith was fired after one season. Now, once again, the Texans are starting from square one. Only this time, they have to pick a new QB, too.
In the 2023 NFL Draft, there are four top quarterback prospects to choose from. Alabama’s Bryce Young is the most popular pick for QB1, but he has competition.
C.J. Stroud is the master of structure, with underrated physical traits in his arsenal. Anthony Richardson is the weaponized wonder with a near-generational mix of athleticism and arm talent. Meanwhile, Will Levis is the eye test darling, with the tools and toughness to win over NFL teams.
With their tools, Richardson and Levis can’t be ruled out as potential sleepers to go within the top two picks. But right now, it seems as though Young and Stroud are the favorites to be QB1 and QB2. Of those two, who would the Texans be better served to select?
Choice Between Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud Not Entirely up to Houston
It’s important to note right away that the choice between Young and Stroud might not be entirely up to Houston. That’s because the Texans are no longer in complete control of their own destiny after Week 18.
For most of the 2022 campaign, Houston was in position to take home the No. 1 overall pick. Had they been positioned at the top of the draft board, they would have been able to take their pick of the QB group without obstruction.
In Week 18, however, the Texans beat the Colts, while the Bears lost to the Vikings. These results moved the Texans up to 3-13-1, while the Bears fell to 3-14, thus taking the No. 1 overall pick in the final hour.
At No. 2, the Texans are still in a good spot. Technically, they’re the first QB-needy team on the board. That said, the Bears have incentive to trade down with a QB-needy team. And it’s entirely possible that a team like the Colts could pay a premium to leapfrog the Texans and take the perceived top QB.
Indianapolis might have extra incentive to do so, seeing that they’re Houston’s division rival. But they’re not the only threat to Houston’s QB freedom. The Seahawks, Raiders, Falcons, Panthers, and Titans are all potential QB-needy teams in the top 12.
All this being said, Houston could just as easily deal a few early-round picks to trade up to first overall and ensure that they get their pick. But offers farther down the board will be richer and more bountiful for Chicago, especially if the Bears feel they can still land a top-tier prospect.
The Colts’ pick at No. 4 overall could be the money zone for Chicago. There, they’d get a haul and be guaranteed to have one of Jalen Carter or Will Anderson Jr. In this scenario, Indianapolis could swipe Houston’s preferred QB in the process.
Is Stroud or Young the Better Fit for Houston?
As a hypothetical, let’s say the Texans make a deal to move up to the first overall pick. Which quarterback would be the better fit for the Texans?
As disappointing as it may seem, we might not have the answer yet. The Texans, as of this writing, are still in the middle of a head coach search. They’ve interviewed Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson but have not made a hire. Even when Houston does hire someone, it’ll take time for their offense to come into place.
The Texans still have a major need for improved offensive personnel at their skill positions. And while the offensive line has several very good pieces, it’s still a couple of players shy of being a complete unit.
Even with a new franchise QB, the Texans’ offense will still be incomplete. Looking at it that way, the best quarterback for the Texans might be the one who can better play through adversity. The QB who can more consistently elevate his teammates and transcend his surroundings. If that’s the quarterback you’re looking for, that player is Young.
Young may be undersized, and Stroud’s arm may be a bit stronger. But Young has elite creation capacity and poise, and you see it all over his Alabama tape. In 2022, he was constantly creating when nothing was there, evading pressure, creating throwing lanes, and making plays off-script with a calm demeanor.
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Stroud has underrated athleticism and off-script upside, but he’s not nearly as consistent, dynamic, or composed as Young is. So in that lens, Young has the edge. If the Texans want a QB who can better withstand adversity early on in his career, while the offense is still taking shape, Young best fits that description.
Young would be the best pick for dealing with adversity, but Stroud wouldn’t be the wrong choice. If Johnson ended up being the hire, Stroud could be a terrific fit in that offense.
Similar to Jared Goff — who Johnson worked well with in 2022 — Stroud has rare accuracy and placement to all levels, and he’s a masterful passer in structure with the processing and arm talent to dice up defenses. He’s also more athletic than Goff. As Stroud continues to grow more comfortable off-script, he could add another dimension to his game.
Regardless of who the Texans pick, as we’ve seen in the past, proper support can make a risky selection the right call. On the flip side, strong QB prospects have been ruined before by unstable surroundings.
Whether the pick is the master creator in Young or the structure savant in Stroud, Houston must adequately support their new QB with both coaching and talent. Both quarterbacks have what it takes to win with the right support.