If you’re planning to make NFL prop bets for this thrilling Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants Wild Card matchup on Sunday, you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Vikings vs. Giants Player Props To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Every postseason game has a different flavor. This one has three rolled into one: chocolate, vanilla, and somehow, eggplant. Bear with me here . . .
The Vikings are one of the strangest playoff teams in years. They’re as likely to lose to a bottom-five club as they are to topple the league’s best. They’re coming off a campaign where they broke the record for the biggest comeback in NFL history. In that one game, they proved to be both inept and elite.
When was the last time a 13-win team gave up more points than they’ve scored? How does that even happen?
It happens when you’re 12-0 in contests decided by a touchdown or less. The Vikings are, decidedly, one of the most dangerous teams in these playoffs, and they’re simultaneously the most vulnerable. They’re two ubiquitous flavors, fighting it out for dominance.
Meanwhile, the Giants are eggplants. I don’t mean that pejoratively. By all accounts, they should not be here after enduring the near complete decimation of their receiving corps — by choice, by accident, and by futility. They lost Sterling Shepard in Week 3. Wan’Dale Robinson mustered only six performances. Kadarius Toney caught only two passes in two games before getting shipped to Kansas City?
And Kenny Golladay? Their supposed No. 1 WR for years to come? Six catches on 17 targets, including four drops.
The Giants made the postseason despite not having their top four WRs. Shepard remains No. 4 on the team in WR receiving yards despite not playing since September. Yeah, crazy.
This is a team that wins through its running game, timely passing to would-be backup receivers, and an occasionally opportunistic defense. They, too, have surrendered more points than they’ve scored. It will be a fascinating contest.
The following prop recommendations assume Minnesota will step up, gradually overpowering a Giants defense that’s tied for last in interceptions (six) and second-to-worst in rushing yards per carry (5.2).
Kirk Cousins Player Props
It’s been an enigmatic career for the somehow 34-year-old Kirk Cousins, who started out as the presumed four-year backup to all-world rookie QB Robert Griffin III. We know how that turned out.
For all of Cousins’ detractors, there are some simple truths. He’s enjoyed a sterling 18-4 TD-INT split at home this year, where the Vikings have lost only once. While I’m not comfortably committing to a yardage total, he should continue his impressive TD-INT numbers this weekend.
- Passing touchdowns over 1.5
(-178) — FanDuel - Interceptions under 0.5
(-140) — BetMGM
Dalvin Cook Player Props
The Giants’ woes against the run are offset by impressive numbers versus pass-catching RBs. No team is yielding fewer RB catches (2.7) per game.
That, combined with Dalvin Cook’s reduced passing-game role, makes the bell cow’s props appealing. Cook caught three balls when these teams last met, and another 3+ seems realistic. He’s far more impressive through the air than his 2022 numbers suggest.
- Receptions over 2.5
(-130) — FanDuel - Receiving yards over 15.5
(-114) — FanDuel
Justin Jefferson Player Props
Imagine a scenario where (a) the Vikings lose, and (b) Justin Jefferson is largely ignored. For a franchise that hasn’t reached the Super Bowl in 46 years, this scenario doesn’t seem possible.
I’m all in on Jefferson helping to carry this offense, just as he’s done for much of the season. It’s hard to understate the importance of a 23-year-old who led the league this year in receptions and receiving yards, and who’s halfway to tying Jerry Rice’s record of six 1,400+ yard campaigns.
- Receptions over 6.5
(-155) — DraftKings - Receiving yards over 91.5
(-115) — DraftKings
Daniel Jones Player Props
Will the Vikings jump out ahead, and if so, by how much when we reach the middle of the third quarter?
Because surely, the Giants will try to turn this into a ground battle, playing to their strength (Saquon Barkley). And I’m betting Minnesota will try to stack the box as much as possible, forcing Daniel Jones to win with the help of his unheralded-yet-impressive receiving corps.
Minnesota has yielded the second most passing yards. Their run defense has looked more vulnerable in recent weeks. But if the Vikes score in buckets, at some point Jones will need to carry this offense. Assuming it happens by the third quarter, he should hit his yardage expectations.
- Passing yards over 238.5
(-114) — FanDuel
Saquon Barkley Player Props
Imagine gutting through two injury-plagued seasons and then playing out the final year of your rookie contract on a team commonly viewed as a postseason longshot.
It’s been an incredible season for Barkley, made all the more incredible by how he’s persevered despite the odds stacked against him and his team.
Now making his first playoff appearance before entering free agency, Barkley is sitting on 352 touches in 16 games — the exact same numbers as his rookie year in 2018. He slowed down considerably during a five-game, 28-day stretch in November/December. But he finished strong, thanks to a reduced workload on the ground.
On the one hand, the Giants will run him into the ground for as long as they’re competitive. On the other hand, the Vikings will expect it.
I’ll deflect on the rushing numbers, instead focusing on what should be impressive aerial numbers.
- Receptions over 3.5
(-130) — FanDuel - Receiving yards over 22.5
(-110) — FanDuel