With six games on Wild Card Weekend, we can really drill down on the potential NFL DFS start/sit options to target. In this article, we will look at the player’s recent form, their DraftKings price point this weekend, and the points allowed to each position by defenses in both the last few weeks and on the season as a whole.
NFL DFS Picks Start and Sit for Wild Card Weekend
The prices in this article are taken from DraftKings and reflect the pricing of the full weekend slate. There are slight differences in the smaller-slate pricing, so be sure to check how things fall in the format you are intending to play this week.
However, the picks below can also have value on FanDuel, even with the slightly different pricing structure. Additionally, you can also get a $10 bonus from a $1 entry as a new user.
Wild Card Weekend DFS Start ‘Em Options
Daniel Jones ($5,600) | NYG @ MIN
Daniel Jones has been one of my fantasy sweethearts all season across various different formats. His ability to make plays with his legs has given him both an elevated floor and ceiling, which is a perfect combination. Jones has averaged 19.1 fantasy points per game in DraftKings scoring this year, thanks in large part to 44.3 rushing yards on average and seven rushing touchdowns over his 16 games.
MORE: Fantasy QB Rankings Wild Card Weekend
In terms of the matchup, there is a ton of potential here. The Minnesota Vikings allowed an average of 18.88 fantasy points this season to QBs and 18.74 fantasy points per game between Weeks 14 and 17. One of those games was a 20.76-point fantasy performance for Jones, which would be a fantastic return on his salary this week.
Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,300) | JAX vs. LAC
Taking a player priced over $6,000 as a “sleeper” may seem odd, but compared to the other lead-backs, Travis Etienne Jr. fits that category. In the full weekend slate, Etienne is the sixth-highest-priced back, making him an intriguing value play. Of the players in the $6,000 to $6,800, he has the best matchup this week.
The Chargers’ run defense has not been as weak in the last four weeks as it has been overall. Among the playoff teams, LA’s run defense allows the second-most fantasy points to running backs on the season at 22.94 points per game.
While Los Angeles’ defense has been tougher in recent weeks, they’ve still allowed two games with more than 22.5 fantasy points allowed in the last four weeks.
Etienne is the main back for the Jaguars and should see the majority of touches. JaMycal Hasty potentially stealing touches, especially in and around the goal line, is a concern. However, the majority of the upside of this matchup should rest with Etienne, who could provide huge value at his price this weekend.
Elijah Mitchell ($4,700) | SF vs. SEA
Elijah Mitchell is more of a true RB sleeper. He had five touches on just 10 snaps in Week 18, his first game action since hurting his knee for a second time this season. Playing Mitchell is a risk this week because it’s unlikely he’ll see more than 10-12 touches. Yet, he found the end zone twice last week on limited touches and has been a super-efficient runner when on the field this season.
The matchup with the Seahawks’ defense is really intriguing, and while Christian McCaffrey is the lead back, the second half could see the San Francisco 49ers spreading touches around. The 49ers are right around 10-point favorites across sportsbooks. Therefore, we could see the offense spread the ball out to their RBs as they look to control touches in the second half.
At this price, Mitchell only needs to find the end zone once or break a single big play to potentially return value.
Isaiah Hodgins ($4,100) | NYG @ MIN
There are so many intriguing options among the highest-priced RBs and WRs this week that we need to try and identify some really low-cost sleeper options at WR. Isaiah Hodgins is the ideal candidate for that.
From Weeks 13 to 17, Hodgins has returned double-digit fantasy points four times and 7.7 fantasy points in the other game. His worst performance was still almost double his cost in terms of fantasy points.
A big part of his threat has been finding the end zone, with four touchdowns, which is the only concern, as the Vikings have held opposing receivers out of the end zone well lately. However, the one receiving touchdown the Vikings allowed to WRs in the final four weeks was to Hodgins.
Russell Gage ($3,800) | TB vs. DAL
It’s been a bumpy season for Russell Gage in Tampa Bay. However, over the past few weeks, he’s begun to click with Tom Brady. Since Week 14, Gage’s lowest fantasy output was 6.3 fantasy points, with three scores over 10 points. In that stretch, he is averaging 6.4 targets and 4.2 receptions per game.
MORE: Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Prediction, Odds, and Picks for Wild Card Weekend
The matchup this week with the Dallas Cowboys is a nice one for opposing receivers. They’ve allowed eight receiving touchdowns and 45.28 fantasy points to WRs in that time. With much of the focus this week on Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Gage could take advantage of some nice matchups for a solid return as a low-cost NFL DFS sleeper option.
Dawson Knox ($4,000) | BUF vs. MIA
There aren’t many tight ends that finished the season hotter than Dawson Knox. Four of his six receiving touchdowns came in those final four games. Just once in that stretch did he fail to reach double-digit fantasy points, with scores of over 12.5 in each of the other three.
Wild Card Weekend DFS Sit ‘Em Options
Joe Burrow ($6,900) | CIN vs. BAL
Knowing what to do with Joe Burrow this week is really tough. He has elite pass-catching options around him, but the matchup against the Baltimore Ravens is tough. Last week, the Ravens held Burrow to just 12.6 fantasy points.
Two of Burrow’s five lowest scores this season have come against Baltimore’s defense. From a strategic purpose, taking the second-highest-priced QB with a tough matchup is extremely risky.
Kenneth Walker III ($6,100) | SEA @ SF
Kenneth Walker III has strung together three impressive performances in the last three weeks. The Seahawks have doubled down on what they know can work, handing him the ball an average of 26 rushing attempts, with 1.33 targets per game. Walker has rewarded them with an average of 120 total yards per game.
Unfortunately, the matchup this week is really tough. No defense has been more restrictive in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs than the 49ers.
MORE: Seahawks vs. 49ers Injury Report
Opposing offenses have had more success running the ball in recent weeks, but in Week 15, they limited Walker reasonably successfully. The Seahawks back had just 47 rushing yards on 12 carries, with the majority of his value coming on four receptions for 32 yards.
It’s tough to rely on Walker’s role in the receiving game week-to-week, and this matchup significantly limits his ceiling. There’s a lot of risk of him returning even double the value on his price this week.
Jaylen Waddle ($6,600) | MIA @ BUF
Trusting Jaylen Waddle on a consistent basis this season has been tough for fantasy and DFS. While he has some monster weeks under his belt, Waddle also has five single-digit performances in PPR. His price this week makes him a top-eight option at the position, and with Tua Tagovailoa ruled out, that price is too much.
While I still believe the Dolphins will look for ways to get Tyreek Hill touching the ball as much as possible, Waddle carries a little less certainty. His two most recent outings without Tua have returned a total of just 18.5 fantasy points in PPR scoring. Even at a slightly reduced salary of $6,600, that is still too rich.
Mark Andrews ($5,200) | BAL @ CIN
The last time we saw Mark Andrews in Week 17, he had a massive game. His 22 fantasy points came thanks to 100 yards from nine receptions on nine targets against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The problem is that in the four games before that, Andrews had double-digit returns.
The Ravens have shifted back to a more tight end-heavy approach to their passing game in recent weeks. However, the Bengals will know that their biggest threat in the passing game is Andrews, so much of the focus should be centered his way this week.
As the second-highest-priced tight end for Wild Card Weekend, Andrews is someone I’m looking to steer clear of. Paying up for tight end is always risky, and that is the case again this week.