If you’re planning to make NFL prop bets for this thrilling Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers Wild Card matchup on Saturday, you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Jaguars vs. Chargers Player Props To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
If you read someone’s analysis that includes — “The last time these teams played each other…” — it’s helpful sometimes. But this is not one of those times.
When these teams last met in Week 3, Justin Herbert was a week removed from a serious rib injury sustained against the Chiefs. Mike Williams was limited to one reception on six targets. Keenan Allen remained sidelined with a hamstring injury. Sony Michel led LA in carries (five) and rushing yards (22).
This was not your typical Chargers effort, and it remains their lowest point total (10) since Week 6 of last season.
Meanwhile, James Robinson paced the Jaguars with a 17-100-1 rushing line, marking his only game with 67+ rushing yards all year — including after the Jags shipped him to the Jets ahead of Week 8. By that time, Travis Etienne Jr. was installed as Jacksonville’s bell cow.
So, these prop recommendations have nothing to do with Week 3 and everything to do with current realities. These are two ascending, mostly healthy and evenly matched teams with defenses likely incapable of holding each other below 24 points. I’m predicting a 30-26 Jags victory.
Trevor Lawrence Player Props
Trevor Lawrence struggled last weekend against Tennessee. One of his inexplicably errant throws cost him about 20-30 yards and a touchdown. Yet, he still managed 212 passing yards and a score.
I’m not overly hung up on his recent struggles against the Titans, Texans, and Jets, though his prop lines suggest I should be. He has the receivers — and the decently catch-friendly backfield — to rack up 250+ yards and 2+ scores against the Chargers.
- Passing yards over 246.5
(-110) — BetMGM - Passing touchdowns over 1.5
(-115) — BetMGM - Rushing yards over 13.5
(-114) — FanDuel
Travis Etienne Jr. Player Props
I’m all-in on Etienne for three primary reasons. First, the Jaguars are all-in on him. They drafted him in the first round in 2021 to serve as their long-term lead back. Second, he’s exceeded even the loftiest preseason expectations, averaging a blistering 5.1 yards per carry and showing promise in the passing game.
Third, LA has surrendered the most yards per carry in the league (5.4). For context, the league average is about 4.4. I expect Etienne to earn 20+ touches.
- Rushing yards over 75.5
(-110) — BetMGM - Receptions over 2.5
(+105) — BetMGM - Receiving yards over 14.5
(-114) — FanDuel
Evan Engram Player Props
If we believe Lawrence will rebound, we should believe Evan Engram will, too. The team’s No. 1 target has caught only five of six targets for 43 yards these past two outings. Before that, he racked up 7+ targets in four straight games — including 15 in the first matchup against the Titans.
After years of toiling away with the Giants and not living up to the hype of his abbreviated rookie campaign, the former first-round draft pick is enjoying career highs in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Perhaps more importantly, he’s earned Lawrence’s trust with a career-high — and objectively impressive — 74.5% catch rate.
- Receiving yards over 37.5
(-114) — FanDuel
Justin Herbert Player Props
I’m all-in on the Chargers’ offense breaking though against a middling defense. And because Jacksonville’s run D is better than its pass D, and because Austin Ekeler often has struggled this season on the ground, I expect a large majority of the team’s offense (80%?) to come through the air.
That said, I’m not ready to commit to a monster passing day, mostly because of game script. I’m expecting the Jags to burn through clock on offense, limiting both teams’ possessions. 240 passing yards seem realistic. But 280+ requires a leap I’m not ready to take.
- Passing yards under 284.5
(-114) — FanDuel - Passing TDs over 1.5
(-140) — BetMGM
Austin Ekeler Player Props
As strong as Jacksonville has looked against the run (yielding only 4.2 yards per carry), they’ve given up the third-most RB receiving yards on the second-most RB receptions.
This plays beautifully into Ekeler’s strengths. His prop line assumes struggles that I’m simply not seeing. He leads all RBs with 107 catches — tying Christian McCaffrey for No. 2 on the all-time single-season list — and is No. 2 with 722 receiving yards. There is no game plan that excludes Ekeler through the air.
- Receiving yards over 36.5
(-115) — BetMGM