The San Francisco 49ers are a win and a little bit of help away from the No. 1 seed in the conference after starting 3-4. It’s been a year full of impressive win and loss streaks from teams, and the 49ers are no exception. They’ve rattled off nine straight, with the last four and change coming with the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft at the most important position in the sport.
Update: 49ers Dominate but Lose No. 1 Seed Regardless
Although the 49ers won against the Cardinals, the Eagles defeating the Giants was enough for them to be eliminated from the No. 1 seed contention. However, they have now locked themselves into the two spot.
Brock Purdy had another impressive game, throwing for 178 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions. The real breakout star was Elijah Mitchell who returned from injury to score 2 TDs.
San Francisco 49ers Path to the No. 1 Seed
According to FiveThirtyEight, the 49ers only have a 7% chance at a first-round bye. Philadelphia is in control of their own destiny as a 14-point favorite against a Giants team with no reason to risk injury to key contributors.
However, despite the low implied odds, their path is simply the following:
- 49ers win and Eagles lose
San Francisco is also a 14-point favorite against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Although the Raiders battled San Francisco a week ago, it was the first time a team had legitimately competed with them since the Chargers in Week 10.
The 49ers beat the Cardinals 38-10 in their last meeting, and there’s a chance that San Francisco has improved in that time and Arizona has spiraled further in the opposite direction.
49ers Other Seeding Possibilities
The 49ers can head into the playoffs as the No. 1, 2, or 3 seed in the NFC, depending on the outcomes in Week 18.
To acquire the No. 1 seed, San Francisco will need the following:
- 49ers win and Eagles lose/tie OR
- 49ers tie and Vikings lose/tie OR
- 49ers lose and Vikings lose OR
- 49ers lose/tie, Eagles lose, and Cowboys win
It’s incredibly unlikely that two 14-point favorites are to lose in the final week of the season with playoff seeding on the line. The 49ers’ average margin of victory over their nine-game win streak is 15.1. They rank second over the season with a 9.3-point differential.
With the second seed, San Francisco has the potential for three playoff opponents. The most likely is Green Bay, who control their destiny, despite currently being the ninth seed. The second-most likely matchup is Seattle, followed by Detroit.
MORE: Cardinals vs. 49ers Prediction, Odds, and Picks for Week 18
The 49ers have already beaten the Seahawks twice. They beat Aaron Rodgers last season in the Divisional Round, and there would be no shortage of storylines surrounding that game. The Lions would probably provide an entertaining track meet in the Wild Card round, considering how their offense tends to operate in decent weather conditions.
But San Francisco could also be the No. 3 seed, which might give them a matchup they like even more. However, it would possibly take away their home-field advantage in the Divisional Round should Minnesota win their Wild Card matchup.
The 49ers would be the No. 3 seed if the following happens:
- 49ers lose and Vikings win/tie OR
- 49ers tie and Vikings win
The 49ers’ Unique Dominance
The 49ers have been the best team in the NFL since Week 8, and it’s not been particularly close. Their 51.2% team DVOA is 23.8% higher than Kansas City, who has the second-highest mark over that time. That difference in itself would rank third in the league behind the Chiefs and Eagles.
In that time, San Francisco is first in offensive DVOA, first in passing offense, and second in rushing offense. They’re also first in defensive DVOA, eighth in pass defense DVOA, and fourth in rushing defense DVOA.
But DVOA isn’t the only efficiency metric that is kind to San Francisco. They’re also first in offensive EPA and defensive EPA over that time.
The whole world awaits the day that Brock Purdy comes crashing back down to Earth. But he’s been very impressive since becoming the starter, and he’s done so without the 49ers’ greatest offensive weapon over the past few weeks.
A healthy Deebo Samuel adds more dynamic ability to an already ridiculous offensive depth chart. Seeing them eventually be the NFC’s Super Bowl representative shouldn’t surprise anyone.