The Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars will meet in a Week 18 clash that will decide the fate of the AFC South. Ahead of their clash in Jacksonville, let’s examine the playoff scenarios for both the Titans and Jaguars this week. With the shape of the current playoff picture, can Tennessee or Jacksonville still make the playoffs via a Wild Card spot if they miss out on the division?
Update January, 7, 11:10 p.m. ET: Jaguars Win AFC South
The Jaguars defeated the Titans on Saturday Night Football and have locked up the AFC South. They will now be the No. 4 seed in the AFC. Tennessee has officially been eliminated from playoff contention.
What Playoff Scenarios Do the Jaguars and Titans Have in Week 18?
The way the current NFL standings fall, the Titans and Jaguars have found themselves in a win-and-in situation this week. However, for one of the two teams, there is also a route into the playoffs via a Wild Card spot, but only if a number of elements go their way in Week 18.
Titans Playoff Scenarios in Week 18
For the Titans, this week is all or nothing. If Tennessee beats the Jaguars, they’re in. But if they lose, they watch the postseason from home. It really is that simple. There is no path for the Titans to get into the playoffs as the No. 7 seed with a 7-10 record.
Tennessee rested a handful of key players last week because their path to the Wild Card was all but gone. Entering last week’s game with a 5-6 conference record meant that no matter what happened in the other games in Week 17, their only viable method into the postseason was by winning the AFC South. That conference record meant the Titans would not have a playoff tiebreaker over enough of the other teams chasing the final AFC spot.
Jaguars Playoff Scenarios in Week 18
The Jaguars have two potential scenarios to find themselves in the playoffs. One of those is in their own hands, while the other is very much a case of needing everything to go right. If the Jaguars win against the Titans on Saturday night, they will take the division. Additionally, a tie will also mean that Jacksonville will host a playoff game next weekend.
Where things get really interesting is if the Jaguars lose. While they would see the division go to the Titans, there is still a path to the seventh seed. For that to come to fruition, the Jaguars would need the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, and Pittsburgh Steelers to lose. If any of those three teams even manage a tie, they will have a better winning percentage than the Jaguars.
MORE: Titans vs. Jaguars Prediction, Odds, and Picks for Week 18
However, if all of those teams lose this weekend, the Jaguars would be the No. 7 seed at 8-9. Having not faced the Patriots, Dolphins, or Steelers this year, it comes down to conference record. The Jaguars will be 7-5, which would give them the edge over each of the other three teams.
Entering the weekend, FiveThirtyEight gives the Jaguars a 74% chance of making the playoffs. If they lose, that drops to just 18%, as they would be relying on three other teams losing. However, of those three teams, only the Steelers are favorites, and even then, they are just a 2.5-point favorite over the Cleveland Browns.