The Buffalo Bills‘ playoff scenarios in Week 18 have a couple of different directions that things can go. With the NFL changing the seeding procedures after Buffalo’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals was canceled, there are a couple of different ways things can play out this week. Let’s take a look at the Bills’ playoff scenarios and chances of clinching the first-round bye and home-field advantage in the final week of the 2022 NFL schedule.
Update: Bills Clinch Second Seed
The Bills clinched the number two seed with a victory over the New England Patriots on Sunday. That locks them in as the number two seed in the AFC after the Chiefs wrapped up the top seed on Saturday.
The Chiefs will have a first-round bye, but the Bills will not have to go to Arrowhead if the two meet in the AFC Championship Game. Any game between the two would be hosted at a neutral site. If the Bills face anyone else in the Championship Game, they will host the game.
Bills Playoff Scenarios To Watch For in Week 18
The cancelation of the Bills’ matchup with the Bengals has changed the shape of the NFL standings and the AFC playoff picture. Entering last week, the Bills were sitting atop the AFC thanks to having the head-to-head advantage in the playoff tiebreakers over the Kansas City Chiefs. However, a victory for the Chiefs, combined with the cancelation of their game, has seen Buffalo fall below Kansas City in terms of win percentage (0.813 vs. 0.800).
However, due to the frightening and unforeseen events that led to the cancelation of the game, the NFL has adjusted its protocols. If the Bills match the Chiefs’ result this week, then any AFC Championship Game between the two teams will be played at a neutral site. There is also a scenario that puts the Bengals into that mix if both the Bills and Chiefs lose and Cincinnati wins.
While there are scenarios that will potentially lead to the AFC Championship Game being played at a neutral site, the Bills have a chance to claim both a first-round bye and home-field advantage. But in order for that to happen, they’ll need some help from the Las Vegas Raiders by defeating the Chiefs on Saturday. If that happens, the Bills can clinch it all by bettering the result.
Buffalo needs to win to at least ensure they will not have to go into Kansas City for the AFC Championship Game. However, if the Chiefs win, then the Bills cannot get a first-round bye for this postseason.
The Bills Could Yet End Up as the Third Seed in the AFC
The Bills cannot enter this weekend just looking up at the Chiefs. There is also a route to them finishing as the third seed behind the Bengals. If Buffalo loses and the Bengals win, then Cincinnati will take the second seed from them, potentially giving them the right to host the Bills in the Divisional Round.
In the event of a Bills loss and Bengals win, both teams will be sitting at 12-4. Equally, both teams will have an equal conference record at 8-3. Their common opponents are all 11 of their AFC opponents, so they would be tied in terms of results against common opponents at 8-3.
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That brings it down to the strength of victory to determine the second seeds. Entering this week, the Bills have a seven-game advantage in terms of strength of victory. However, in the scenario where the Bengals win and the Bills lose, Cincinnati will pick up another 10 wins in that metric, giving them a three-game lead.
Eight of the 12 wins that each team has come against common opponents. Therefore, we have to look at the other four victories to see if the Bills can recover that three-game deficit. The Bills defeated the Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Rams, and Chicago Bears. Meanwhile, the Bengals defeated all four of the NFC South teams.
With the Packers and Lions facing each other this week, the best the Bills’ strength of victory can increase by is three wins. However, with the NFC South facing each other, the Bengals are guaranteed to pick up two wins worth of win percentage to their strength of victory. That means Buffalo would not be able to flip the strength of victory tiebreaker.
In this case, if the Bills lose and the Bengals win, Cincinnati will be the second seed, and Buffalo will be the three seed. Alternatively, if the Bengals and Bills both lose, Buffalo would have the superior record and remain as the two seed.
What Are the Bills’ Chances of Clinching the No. 1 Seed?
Heading into the weekend, FiveThirtyEight has the Bills with an 18% chance of clinching the top seed and a first-round bye. While Buffalo is a seven-point favorite this week against the Patriots, the Chiefs are a nine-point favorite against the Raiders. The most likely outcome entering the weekend is that both will win, and the Chiefs would get the first-round bye.