If you’re reading this, congratulations on making it deep into your fantasy football playoffs. You’re in the right place to get the last-minute fantasy help you need to bring home your league title. One of the hottest waiver wire names for Week 17 is Chicago Bears running back Khalil Herbert. We’ll break down whether Herbert is a quality waiver wire addition for Week 17 as he faces the Detroit Lions.
Should You Add Khalil Herbert From the Waiver Wire?
The Bears have become one of the most entertaining bad teams in the league. Quarterback Justin Fields is a playmaking star with his legs, compensating for a horrible passing game around him and a defense struggling to slow anyone down. The other bright spot of the offense in 2022 has been Herbert.
But the Bears’ usage of Herbert has been confounding. Starter David Montgomery has at least split carries when he’s healthy despite being clearly less effective. Montgomery has 74 more rushing attempts but only 106 more yards and averages 1.7 yards less per carry. This isn’t situational like the Ezekiel Elliott-Tony Pollard tandem where Montgomery is eating the less advantageous carries for Pollard; Herbert is just the better back in this system.
You can consider adding Herbert to a weekly Best Ball tournament on Underdog Fantasy, where thousands of dollars are up for grabs in prizes every week.
If the Bears utilize Herbert and Montgomery as they have since Week 7 — almost a true split down the middle — both lose fantasy value. Herbert had two fantasy-relevant games from Week 7 through Week 10 before landing on injured reserve, but his last two had only 17 touches for 80 yards against two bad defenses. Montgomery wasn’t more effective, but Herbert lost 25 touches to him.
MORE: Week 17 Waiver Wire Pickups
We expected this Bears offense to struggle against Buffalo in Week 16, and they weren’t able to pull any surprises. Fields had 11 rushing yards, Montgomery had 62 on 16 carries, and Herbert had seven yards on six carries. We went back to Montgomery owning the backfield.
This week’s matchup is more advantageous. The Lions allow an average of 24.4 touches for 124.4 yards and 0.93 touchdowns per game. They’ve been a lot better than they were in the first half of the season, giving up fewer than 95 yards in four of their five games from Week 11 through Week 15.
Then Week 16 happened, and Carolina bulldozed their way to 320 rushing yards against Detroit. This gives a little bit of hope for desperate fantasy managers who are considering starting Herbert. D’Onta Foreman had 165 yards, and Chuba Hubbard finished with 125 yards against this Lions defense. Surely, the trio of Fields, Montgomery, and Herbert can have similar success.
We know it’s not that easy, though. The more telling sign that Herbert is a risky play is his game log. He’s been irrelevant in fantasy since Week 8, partly due to injury and partly due to usage and inefficiency. This Chicago offense is different now than when he was producing dominant performances before Fields found his footing.
If you have to start Herbert, you’re hoping for an unpredictable touchdown or an injury to Montgomery. Otherwise, Montgomery will get the red-zone looks and be the bigger receiving threat. Fields’ health may lead to more carries for the backs, but it’s also possible for Detroit to ignore the threat of his legs more as well.
I’d shy away from starting Herbert this week if you can help it. He simply has too low of a floor for us to risk it.