This Los Angeles Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts prediction examines whether or not Los Angeles can keep its hot streak going now that they finally occupy a playoff spot. Additionally, what have the Colts learned from falling victim to the biggest faceplant in NFL history? Do they have what it takes the finish the job as a spoiler this time?
The Chargers vs. Colts odds have value for bettors looking to get an easy win on the moneyline despite the small profit, and possibly a fascinating decision to make on the spread based on the Behavior Bets sports betting model projection.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction and Odds | Week 16
- Spread
Chargers -4 - Moneyline
Chargers -210 - Over/Under
Under 45.5*
*The margin from the Behavior Bets model is .5 points. A margin that thin means I did not personally wager on the over/under.
Chargers vs. Colts Prediction
The Behavior Bets sports betting model had an excellent Week 15 last week. Thirty wagers were placed, and the model went 24-6. Through the Saturday games of Week 16, the model is 8-2 on the moneyline and 3-7-1 ATS.
For the season, the model is 112-53-6* on bets against the spread, the moneyline, and in player props. Let’s see if we can keep it going starting with this Los Angeles vs. Indianapolis prediction.
*Stats on the Behavior Bets model can be tracked at Pikkit, the best bet-tracking app on the market.
The Chargers come into this one riding a two-game win streak and firmly in possession of a playoff spot. Throughout the season, many felt this team was underachieving, and some may still feel that way, but as of now, they’re in the playoffs and will finish that way if they keep winning.
MORE: Early Fantasy Flex Rankings Week 17
Los Angeles is seen largely as an underachiever because they have one of the game’s best young quarterbacks in Justin Herbert, a game-breaker in Austin Ekeler, and two dynamic wide receivers in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. They even loaded up on defense bringing in Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson, while already having Joey Bosa and Derwin James.
Yet, inconsistency and injuries have plagued them. On offense, despite those playmakers, the Chargers have just the league’s 14th-best scoring rate at .71 points per minute of possession time. LA also has the 16th-highest bounce rate, which means they’re rather inconsistent on offense. One week, they’re great, the next, not so much.
Defense has seen the bulk of the injuries and hasn’t fared much better, despite being head coach Brandon Staley’s specialty, which is maybe why he’s on the hot seat. The Chargers are in the bottom 10 of the NFL in scoring rate, allowing opponents to score .779 points per minute of possession time. That’s higher than their own offense scores.
Nevertheless, Los Angeles is 8-6 and has a chance to cement a winning season against the chaotic Colts, who will be starting their third QB of the season in this one, going with journeyman Nick Foles over the embattled Matt Ryan and ineffective Sam Ehlinger.
People may look at last week and think Indianapolis finally put up points, but we must remember one TD was a special-teams touchdown, and the other was a defensive touchdown. It was the offense’s inability to do much that allowed Minnesota to complete the comeback last week.
The Colts’ offense has only gotten better by 1% since Jeff Saturday took over in terms of scoring rate and currently sits 20th in the NFL. It’s only getting worse. Since Saturday took over, Indianapolis is trending in the wrong direction and losing steam in points per minute of possession by 11% week over week.
Is Nick Foles going to be the stopper and propel them to an upset victory against a team that desperately needs a win to stay in the playoff chase? Probably not. Before he was named the starter, the Chargers were poised to cover the four-point spread. Now, LA wins by seven.
Chargers vs. Colts Prediction
Chargers 26, Colts 19