While things have not gone how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers planned in 2022, they still have their playoff future in their own hands heading into Week 16. With a Christmas Day game against the Arizona Cardinals, what are the Buccaneers’ playoff odds heading into their prime-time game? Let’s examine the Buccaneers’ playoff chances and how their remaining schedule shapes up.
What Are the Buccaneers’ Playoff Odds for 2022?
The sportsbooks still believe that the Buccaneers’ playoff chances are very much in their own hands. The best odds for Tampa Bay to make the playoffs are -360 and -300 to win the NFC South.
At 6-8, the Buccaneers enter the game first in the division. Even with a loss against the Cardinals, the Buccaneers would remain atop the division, as they have the head-to-head playoff tiebreaker over both the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints.
Entering Christmas Day, Tampa Bay has a 65% chance of making the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight. They also have a 64% chance of winning the division, suggesting that the most realistic way for the Buccaneers to make the playoffs is to win the NFC South. However, there is a route to the Buccaneers making the playoffs without winning the division.
How Can the Buccaneers Clinch the Division?
Tampa Bay does not have a clinching scenario in Week 16. However, they can take a step this week to clinch the division in Week 17. If Tampa Bay wins this week, then a victory over the Panthers in Week 17 would clinch the division. The Buccaneers would then be one game ahead of the Panthers, having won both head-to-head contests against Carolina.
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Similarly, the Saints would not be able to finish ahead of the Buccaneers in terms of record. Tampa Bay has also beaten New Orleans twice, giving them the head-to-head tiebreaker there as well.
Tampa Bay’s Remaining Schedule
Heading into Christmas Day, the Buccaneers have three more games remaining. Their game against the Cardinals could take them a big step towards winning the division. Victory would increase their chances to 70%, according to FiveThirtyEight.
If Tampa Bay does lose, it would all but end their chances of making the playoffs via the Wild Card route, but they’d still be in the driver’s seat in terms of the division. The Buccaneers would still have a 47% chance of winning the division and have things in their own power. If they win out against the Panthers and Atlanta Falcons in Weeks 17 and 18, then Tampa will be heading back to the playoffs for a third consecutive season.
A loss to Arizona, however, does mean there’s no more room for error for the Buccaneers. If they then lost to the Panthers in Week 17, they would be eliminated from contention for the division. In that scenario, Carolina would have the better record entering Week 18 (7-9 vs. 6-10), and they would have the tiebreak advantage against common opponents.
If the Buccaneers do win against the Cardinals on Christmas Day, there is a path where they can lose to the Panthers next week and still win the division. But Tampa Bay would then be relying on New Orleans to defeat Carolina in Week 18 to send the Buccaneers to the playoffs.