Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog, fantasy managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines. Here are my top plays for Underdog’s Week 16 Pick’em contest.
Top Underdog Pick’ems for Week 16 Saturday Games
Underdog Pick’ems allow fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x even money or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts.
The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s take a look at this week’s NFL pick’ems.
Kareem Hunt Lower Than 40.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
The only mild concern I have with this pick is Nick Chubb’s health. If he can’t play his usual complement of snaps, Kareem Hunt’s volume will increase, which is not good for us. However, I do expect Chubb to be a full go, relegating Hunt to his normal backup role.
Hunt saw a 26% snap share against the Ravens last week, turning five touches into 27 yards. In four of his last six games, he’s fallen well short of 40 total yards.
You can run on the Saints, but that benefits Chubb more than Hunt. The latter will have to get there through the air, but the Saints allow just 12.7% of their total receiving yards to running backs. I also expect reduced throwing due to the weather.
Cordarrelle Patterson Lower Than 58.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
I pride myself on noticing shifts in how teams are utilizing players before projections fully adjust. It’s something you can only take advantage of a handful of times each season. This is one of those times.
Last week, Tyler Allgeier carried the ball more than Cordarrelle Patterson for the first time all season. He ripped off 139 yards on 17 carries. Patterson, meanwhile, had just 52 yards on 14 carries.
I don’t see this as just a one-off event. I think we’re seeing a deliberate shift toward the rookie. The Falcons have no reason to push Patterson if Allgeier is playing better. Performance is what matters, and Allgeier has been the better runner.
MORE: Tyler Allgeier Waiver Wire Week 16
Patterson has become invisible in the passing game. He’s gone two straight games without a catch. As a result, rather than taking his rushing yards lower, we can get a few bonus yards to play with by taking his combined yardage.
The Ravens allow 3.8 yards per carry to running backs, the third-lowest rate in the league. It’s a bad matchup for a player whose role appears to be lessening.
Tyler Huntley Lower Than 170.5 Passing Yards
My sources tell me Tyler Huntley is a real NFL quarterback. My eyes tell me that’s really hard to believe.
Huntley’s job isn’t to just manage the game — it’s to do as little as possible. In his two starts, he’s only thrown for 226 total yards. And he only got to 138 last week against the Browns because the Ravens went pass-heavy in the second half.
After the game, Ravens’ OC Greg Roman admitted they got away from the run too soon. He’s not going to make that mistake again, which means even less throwing for Huntley.
The Ravens are projected to win this game. That means negative game script is unlikely. Even if the Falcons get a lead, it’s doubtful to be more than one score, keeping the run in play.
The Falcons are a great matchup for Huntley, but I just don’t think the Ravens want him to throw at all, if possible. As long as they maintain a lead or keep it close, they will run, run, and run some more. Huntley may not attempt 20 passes.
Josh Allen Higher Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
The weather concerns are very fair. Cold and wind are permeating the NFL this week. But we saw Josh Allen in cold and windy conditions last week, in which he threw four touchdowns.
I’m not saying Allen is about to go out there and throw another four. But the Bills are going to score points. Allen has thrown multiple touchdowns in three of his last four games. This is an event that hits more than it doesn’t.
Isaiah Hodgins Higher Than 34.5 Receiving Yards
This projection seems to not believe Isaiah Hodgins is a starter. Well, he is. Hodgins has averaged around an 85% snap share over his past three games. Darius Slayton is the WR1, but Hodgins is the WR2. During that span, he’s totaled at least 37 receiving yards in each game.
The Vikings allow 200.5 receiving yards per game to wide receivers. They trail only the Lions in being the worst pass defense in the league.
With all the weather concerns across the league, they’re moot here as this game is in a dome. Unsurprisingly, it’s projected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week.
Head coach Brian Daboll is intelligent. He certainly knows the way you beat the Vikings is through the air. That should lead to more pass attempts for Daniel Jones and more opportunities for Hodgins, who will only need a handful of them to reach 35 receiving yards.
D’Onta Foreman Lower Than 53.5 Rushing Yards
This is my most confident pick of the week, and — spoiler alert — it will be in my official entry below.
D’Onta Foreman’s rushing projection is about 10 yards higher than I expected. He’s coming off a game where he carried it 10 times for nine yards. More concerning, he played 30% of the snaps.
MORE: Where Does D’Onta Foreman Land in the Midweek Non-PPR Fantasy Rankings for Week 16?
This team seems to be shifting toward Chuba Hubbard as their RB1. It’s bad enough this is already a three-man timeshare with Raheem Blackshear. If Foreman isn’t the top guy, he’ll have a tough time reaching 50 rushing yards against anyone.
It will be even tougher against a Lions’ run defense that has been one of the best in the league. Since Week 8, Detroit is allowing just 62 rushing yards per game, the fourth-fewest in the league.
DJ Chark Higher Than 32.5 Receiving Yards
I find it fascinating how some projections just don’t take into account what we saw the previous week, and others overreact. With Foreman, the number suggests no change in that backfield is occurring. Meanwhile, with DJ Chark, it’s as if Weeks 13 and 14 never happened.
This line is absurdly low for a WR2 on a pass-first offense. In games where Chark plays a full complement of snaps, he averages over 30 routes run per game.
My only explanation for this number is Chark’s 2-18 dud last week. But that was against the Jets. He had Sauce all over him…and not the good kind.
In Weeks 13 and 14, Chark had 98 and 94 receiving yards, respectively. And he can’t get to 33?
The Panthers allow 158.3 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, the 11th most in the league. They’re worse against outside receivers — where Chark primarily lines up — than the slot.
If Jaycee Horn chases Amon-Ra St. Brown inside, Jared Goff could look Chark’s way 6+ times. Chark could hit this on just a handful of targets, and I think he gets more than a handful.
Patrick Mahomes Lower Than 0.5 Interceptions
Patrick Mahomes has embraced his gunslinger ways. He’s thrown 11 interceptions already this season. Last year, he threw 13. He had 11 combined in 2019 and 2020.
Last week, Mahomes didn’t turn it over. Additionally, most of his interceptions have come against defenses that force turnovers.
The Seahawks have failed to record an interception in six games this season, and they haven’t faced a quarterback nearly as good as Mahomes. I’ll roll the dice on the most talented QB in NFL history to only throw it to his team this week.
Taylor Heinicke Higher Than 190.5 Passing Yards
This number is shockingly low given the likely game script and game environment. Taylor Heinicke has made eight starts this season and has thrown for at least 200 yards in five of them.
The 49ers have an excellent defense — arguably the best in the NFL — but they’re undoubtedly the best in the NFL against the run. Even with a great pass defense, teams are more inclined to throw to try and break this defense down than run.
Plus, if San Francisco does maintain a lead, Heinicke will benefit from volume in negative game script. There are just several ways he gets to around 200 passing yards.
George Kittle Lower Than 44.5 Receiving Yards
This is a situation where the projections did not overreact to one week. I think it’s because we’ve seen this from George Kittle already. He’s a blocking tight end who occasionally turns a small number of receptions into big gains.
Kittle lit up the Cardinals and Seahawks — two of the worst defenses at defending the tight end. Five of his last seven games were against other teams, and he didn’t sniff 40 receiving yards in any of them.
MORE: Fantasy TE Streamers and Rankings Week 16
The Commanders allow 14.1% of their total receiving yards against to the TE position. It’s the lowest rate in the league. Kittle should go right back to his usual blocking ways this week.
Davante Adams Higher Than 69.5 Receiving Yards
Over the past two weeks, Davante Adams has just seven receptions. With guys like Adams, they’re just not going to remain dormant for that long. Even two weeks is a lot. I just don’t see how the Raiders don’t force the ball to Adams more this week.
The Steelers allow the fifth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. Of their total receiving yards allowed, 69.5% of them go to wide receivers. I think Adams hits triple digits this week.
My Underdog Entry
While I believe in all of these picks and would play them all straight if I could, here is my entry with those I feel most confident in.
