If you enjoy making NFL bets on player touchdowns, then welcome to our Week 16 rundown of favorite anytime TD scorer predictions.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are the best bets to reach the end zone. All prop bets are taken from DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetMGM.
NFL Week 16 Anytime TD Scorer Predictions
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, and James Cook
Heading into Week 15’s contest against Miami, Josh Allen had +170 anytime-TD odds (BetMGM). Devin Singletary (+175, BetMGM) and James Cook (+310, FanDuel) had even better odds.
I bring this up for context. Buffalo is about to face a Bears defense that’s yielding the league’s most rushing touchdowns (24). Only four defenses have given up more red-zone RB touches. When teams play the Bears, they know the deal.
Buffalo easily could reach the end zone five times in this game. They have the personnel and the matchup to dominate on offense.
Last week, only Cook scored a rushing or receiving TD among him, Singletary, and Allen. But the ingredients were ripe for more. Nyheim Hines got one. So did Quintin Morris. In a possible preview of a second-round playoff game, the Bills showed the Dolphins more new ways to reach the end zone.
As they push for the AFC’s No. 1 seed and facing a Bears squad that has nearly toppled a number of talented teams, the Bills should be able to generate enough extended drives to create scoring opportunities for Cook, Singletary, and (on a potential QB option) Allen.
Derrick Henry
If the Titans somehow miss the playoffs, Derrick Henry will be one of the few blameless figures in the collapse. Formerly 7-3, this franchise is now 7-7. A possible deciding contest looms in Jacksonville in Week 18.
But in Week 16, Henry’s home matchup couldn’t be more favorable. The opposing Texans are surrendering the most RB rushing scores (different than the Bears’ total rushing scores), the most RB red-zone touches, and the most RB red-zone goal-to-go touches.
Henry is uniquely well-positioned to score in this one. As the primary offensive weapon in a run-heavy scheme, he’ll be the most likely beneficiary of any Tennessee scoring opportunities.
It’s also worth noting that Henry has scored at least once in eight of his last nine games when cracking 80 rushing yards. In his last three outings with less than 80, he’s been scoreless. Houston hemorrhages yards on the ground. Henry’s a great bet to find paydirt at least once.
Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon
The once formidable, upstart Seahawks are in trouble, and it won’t get easier in Kansas City. Seattle’s yielding the fourth-most RB rushing yards, the sixth-most RB receiving yards, and the second-most RB touchdowns. They’re only a shade better than the lowly Texans on many major rush-defense metrics.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ offense is clicking. And thanks to an inexplicably porous defense in recent weeks, Kansas City might not have the luxury of letting up this weekend.
MORE: Chiefs Win 7th Straight AFCWest Title as Pacheco Leads Rotating Backfield
That’s good news if you’re betting on breakout rookie Isiah Pacheco and crafty, dynamic veteran Jerick McKinnon. They’ve quietly become one of the NFL’s best one-two backfield punches. Clyde who?
Even in close games, Pacheco and McKinnon earn steady work. This past weekend, they combined for 34 touches in an overtime win. They enjoyed 29 touches the week before in a narrow escape versus Denver.
I’m trusting both to combine for 27 to 35 touches against Seattle’s vulnerable defense. Assuming at least four K.C. touchdowns, I’d bet on Pacheco and McKinnon to each get one.
Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White
Where will Tom Brady and the Bucs turn in a must-win road game against Arizona? Probably to their backfield.
Up 17-3 to start the third quarter this past Sunday against Cincinnati, the Bucs ran the ball once and threw twice in their opening drive. Then the Bengals cut their deficit to 17-6. The Bucs’ next drive, which ended in a Brady interception, consisted of one run and four pass attempts.
In fact, on each of Tampa Bay’s seven second-half drives, they never called more than one running play.
As always, I believe in NFL adjustments. Tampa Bay will adjust. They have to with their season on the line. Facing a porous Cardinals defense, Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White likely will earn more volume and with much better results.