The fantasy football playoffs are wrapping up in the next two weeks, meaning it’s time to pull out any tricks you have left available to you. One potential running back contributor is on the waiver wire in most leagues, as Chicago Bears rusher Khalil Herbert is coming off injured reserve. We’ll break down whether Herbert is a quality waiver wire addition for Week 16 as he faces the Buffalo Bills.
Should You Add Khalil Herbert From the Waiver Wire?
The Bears have become one of the most entertaining bad teams in the league. Quarterback Justin Fields is a playmaking star with his legs, compensating for a horrible passing game around him and a defense struggling to slow anyone down. The other bright spot of the offense in 2022 has been Herbert.
But the Bears’ usage of Herbert has been confounding. Starter David Montgomery has at least split carries when he’s healthy despite being clearly less effective. Montgomery has 64 more rushing attempts but only 51 more yards and averages two whole yards less per carry. This isn’t situational like the Ezekiel Elliott-Tony Pollard tandem where Montgomery is eating the less advantageous carries for Pollard; Herbert is just the better back in this system.
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If the Bears utilize Herbert and Montgomery as they have since Week 7, almost a true split down the middle, both lose fantasy value. Herbert had two fantasy-relevant games from Week 7 through Week 10 before landing on injured reserve, but his last two had only 17 touches for 80 yards against two bad defenses. Montgomery wasn’t more effective but Herbert lost 25 touches to him.
MORE: Week 16 Fantasy Waiver Wire Targets
Facing the Bills this week muddies projections even more. Buffalo’s run defense has become more of a questionable unit recently, and Miami’s shocking 188-yard performance on the ground bodes well for Chicago’s ability to do even more damage. Chicago hasn’t run for less than 127 yards since Week 5.
The Bills still have a top-10 defense in the league against running backs. They allow an average of 23.9 touches for 112.4 yards and 0.84 touchdowns per game. Chicago will have the chance to make this an interesting game if they can continue being effective on the ground.
If you need a running back or flex starter this week, you could do worse than Herbert. Assuming he’s fully healthy, he’s going to get some touches and be highly effective with his opportunities. Herbert has 19 red zone touches compared to Montgomery’s 30, meaning if Chicago can get inside the 20, Herbert is as likely as Montgomery is to make a push for the end zone.
Of course, he’s not an especially strong play with Montgomery active and Fields a major threat to steal carries. Fields is seventh in the NFL with 1,000 rushing yards, an unthinkable total with three games left this season. Starting Herbert is a gamble on his ability to reach the end zone, replicating Raheem Mostert’s shocking production in Week 15, or that he gets an unusual workload that we can’t possibly predict.
Consider the needs of your roster. I’d add Herbert if you need a back, but his Week 17 matchup against Detroit is more favorable than this week’s battle against Buffalo.