Our Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins prediction takes a look at a Week 16 matchup that carries immense playoff implications.
Let’s dive into the current NFL betting odds and key storylines to watch and make a prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, Dec. 20.
Packers vs. Dolphins Odds
- Spread
Dolphins -4 - Moneyline
Dolphins -195, Packers +165 - Over/Under
49.5 points
Packers vs. Dolphins Prediction
Let’s not count out the Green Bay Packers just yet! While there’s still a difficult path for Green Bay to make it to the postseason this year, it’s certainly still in the realm of possibilities after their victory on Monday Night Football over the Los Angeles Rams.
MORE: Early NFL Week 16 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
The Packers were able to pull off a 24-12 victory over a floundering Rams team and position themselves at 6-8 on the season. Yes, they still have a few teams above them in the standings that have an easier path to the playoffs, but if the Packers are able to win their remaining three games, they have a very good chance of securing one of the final wildcard spots in the NFC.
While the passing offense for Green Bay remains a bit of a wildcard going into each and every game, the Packers are doing enough to keep themselves in the postseason discussion, and this game against Miami is a must-win if they want to keep it that way.
The aforementioned passing game is going to need to be firing on all cylinders in Week 16 against a Miami team that knows how to put points up on the board. Miami’s secondary has struggled to slow down opposing passing games, and they’re currently allowing the sixth most passing yards per contest.
If Aaron Rodgers and his receivers can connect and show solid chemistry in this plus matchup, we could see a closer game than even Vegas is anticipating right now.
On the Miami side of the ball, they’ve now lost three straight games, but the perception of the team is drastically more optimistic now than it was at this time last week. After Week 15, Miami fans were beginning to panic over whether or not the code had been cracked on how to stop this high-powered offense.
Tua Tagovailoa was coming off of a terrible two-game performance, and there were major questions regarding whether or not this offense could get back on track before they played their way right out of the playoff race.
While they didn’t end up coming away with the victory in Buffalo in Week 15, the offense showed signs of life and looked much improved compared to what everyone witnessed against the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers. This certainly gives fans a vote of confidence heading into Week 16 in a must-win matchup against the Packers.
The key for Miami is to fix something that they failed to do against Buffalo: stay committed to the ground game. After finding success early on with Raheem Mostert, Miami simply abandoned the running game, and it ultimately let the game get away from them.
MORE: NFL Survival Pool Picks Week 16
Against a Packers defense that’s allowing the fourth most rushing yards per game this season, Miami needs to stay committed to running the football. If they can continuously move the ball on the ground against Green Bay, it should open everything else up in the offense.
If they move away from the run game again this week, though, Miami could be looking at an 8-7 record versus 9-6.
Packers vs. Dolphins Prediction
Packers 20, Dolphins 27