If you’re looking for Minnesota Vikings vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL DFS picks in Week 15, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following two recommended fantasy football lineups (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aim to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Vikings Considerations
Minnesota has had one of the more top-heavy offensive units for several years. Not so much this year, with one exception: Justin Jefferson.
Jefferson has hit 25+ DFS points in seven of 13 games. He’s scored 15+ in 10 contests — including nine of his last 10 outings, which have included dominant performances against the Bills, Patriots, and Jets.
Any DFS lineup that doesn’t include the high-priced Jefferson risks losing, period.
The other Vikings are less reliable. Adam Thielen has scored 15+ five times, which no doubt is solid. But his high is 21.1 — or just a little more than half of Jefferson’s highest output. Thielen has also netted less than seven points on four occasions, including twice in his last four games, making him as boom-bust as any No. 2 WR playing this weekend.
Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins is averaging his second-lowest DFS points per game in his last eight years. Why? He’s accrued his worst TD-INT ratio since 2014 and his fewest yards per pass attempt since 2013. He doesn’t even have one of the top 50 QB performances this season.
And Dalvin Cook? Age and career workload might be catching up with the 27-year-old, who’s averaging only 1.9 yards after contact and one broken tackle every 21.3 carries. Last year, those numbers were 1.9 and 15.6, respectively. The year before that, 2.4 and 9.5, with Cook finishing No. 2 in overall broken tackles.
Cook still has 20+ point potential, especially against a defense yielding the sixth-most RB receptions. But we have to acknowledge the risks and rewards of someone who’s scored fewer than 10 DFS points (four times) more than he’s scored 17+ (three times).
Colts Considerations
Let’s not overthink this. As shared repeatedly since early this season, the Matt Ryan signing set this franchise back at least one year, and perhaps several if they can’t quickly find a franchise-elevating QB for 2023.
Today, Minnesota’s defensive strength offsets Indy’s, as the Vikings are yielding only 3.7 yards per carry to opposing RBs. Jonathan Taylor probably will get all he can handle — until/unless the Vikings break the game open, forcing Ryan to throw excessively.
MORE: Colts vs. Vikings Predictions, Odds, and Picks for Week 15
This creates an interesting dilemma as we shape our DFS lineup. Minnesota has the fourth-best net turnover rate (six more takeaways than giveaways, or +6). The Colts are last at -14. In their last game, Indy didn’t even trust Taylor near the goal line after he’d lost three fumbles in his previous six contests.
So while there are many realistic scenarios, I’m eyeing two. One enables the Colts to execute their optimal game plan — a run-heavy offense with plenty of short passes to keep the chains and clock moving. The other forces a desperate, trailing Ryan to throw more than he should, leading to some big gains as well as a high proportion of sacks and turnovers.
Top DFS Picks for Vikings vs. Colts
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: WR Justin Jefferson, Vikings ($17,100)
Both lineups I’m recommending include Jefferson. This one assumes a close, run-heavy contest where the Vikings’ star receiver scores 18+. Entirely doable.
Flex: RB Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($10,400)
This lineup, therefore, assumes Taylor will net 14+ and perhaps enjoy a vintage Taylor-like performance. We shall see. But if Taylor gets going, he can single-handedly keep the Colts in this one.
Flex: RB Dalvin Cook, Vikings ($10,200)
A surprisingly low floor, yet still a high enough ceiling to be taken seriously against a defense surrendering a healthy 15 rushing scores. Cook is no safer than the similarly priced Cousins or the somewhat cheaper Michael Pittman Jr., though his TD potential remains solid.
Flex: WR Adam Thielen, Vikings ($7,000)
As you can tell, this is more of a boom-bust lineup — which isn’t surprising given the unpredictable nature of most players in this contest. Thielen remains one of the best red-zone scorers in the league (his numbers the last three years are incredible). There’s enough pop to his game to include him here.
Flex: TE Jelani Woods, Colts ($3,000)
With $5,300 remaining for two spots, we’re rolling with a hedge. First, the all-or-nothing Jelani Woods. A terrific rookie with a bright future in a crowded TE corps.
Flex: TE Kylen Granson, Colts ($2,200)
And we’ll pair Woods with de facto starter Kylen Granson. For $5,200, we’re hoping for 10+ points from the TE pair. If the Colts have the luxury of operating a conservative offense, then these two easily could combine for 14+.
Secondary DFS Picks for Vikings vs. Colts
The following NFL betting recommendations assume a different game script featuring the turnover-prone Colts getting crushed by the offensively superior Vikings.
Captain: Vikings D/ST ($6,900)
How can we bet on a team that’s scored negative DFS points in two of their last four games? Because the Colts are surrendering the most D/ST points in the league, including the most sacks and turnovers. Minnesota’s D/ST has 16+ point potential if Indy can’t get their running game going.
Flex: WR Justin Jefferson, Vikings ($11,400)
Assuming Minnesota blows this game open, Jefferson probably will be a key reason why.
Flex: RB Dalvin Cook, Vikings ($10,200)
The same goes for Cook, whose nine touchdowns are a reminder that he can score once or twice in any given game. And his sterling 4.9 yards per carry when leading highlights Cook’s prowess in positive game scripts.
Flex: WR Michael Pittman Jr., Colts ($8,400)
The highest-ceiling Colts receiver. Also the most expensive. But we’re talking about a desperate Ryan with the season — and probably his starting job — on the line. Minnesota is vulnerable against the pass, and Michael Pittman Jr. would be a prime beneficiary in catch-up mode.
Flex: TE T.J. Hockenson, Vikings ($6,600)
I mention T.J. Hockenson every week, so he’s overdue in this article. Reliable and nothing flashy. Also some TD potential. He’s a safe bet.
Flex: WR Parris Campbell, Colts ($6,200)
This assumes Parris Campbell outperforms the slightly more affordable Alec Pierce. It could go either way, but I prefer Campbell’s ceiling.
Whatever you decide, good luck today.