We are now into the fantasy football playoffs for most leagues. These decisions quite literally make or break our season. Let’s take a look at our RB start/sit Week 16 plays. Before setting your lineups, check out our complete Week 16 fantasy football PPR rankings.
Week 16 Fantasy Football RB Start ’ems
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles (at DAL)
One of my favorite things to do in recommending starts is to look at guys that have been mostly reliable but are coming off a truly horrendous week. We have exactly that with Miles Sanders.
It was a week to forget for Sanders, who contributed nothing to the Eagles’ win over the Bears. Sanders is averaging a very respectable 14.4 PPR fantasy points per game. But last week, he had the worst game of his career.
Sanders ran it 11 times for 42 yards but lost 13 yards on his lone reception, which he also fumbled. He scored 1.9 fantasy points.
Sanders is definitely prone to some duds, but I’d be surprised if this week were one of them. With Jalen Hurts out, the Eagles are likely to lean more on the running game. The Cowboys are also quite the run funnel defense, Trevor Lawrence’s Week 15 smash notwithstanding.
Although their fantasy points against numbers wouldn’t show it, the Cowboys have struggled to defend the run. They allow 4.4 yards per carry and 104 rushing yards per game. Both of those numbers are in the bottom third of the league.
Additionally, Gardner Minshew is not incompetent. He’s probably a top-32 quarterback right now. He’s definitely one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. The Eagles should still be able to generate enough offense to get Sanders into scoring position.
While it’s fair to wonder how many of you out there with Sanders advanced in the fantasy playoffs, if you made it out alive, don’t shy away from Sanders based on one down game.
Rachaad White and Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at ARI)
Over the past couple of months, I’ve been either fading or avoiding entirely Rachaad White and Leonard Fournette on Underdog Fantasy. This week, I’m all in.
The Bucs’ offense is definitely broken. Tom Brady is definitely the bulk of the problem. With all that said, this is still a team leading its division and needing to win to secure that No. 4 seed.
The Cardinals have packed it in for the season. They might be starting their third-string quarterback. And their season-long numbers be damned, the current Cardinals are very bad against the run.
Last week, Latavius Murray and Marlon Mack combined to rip off 167 yards on 29 carries. For once, the Bucs should experience a positive game script and be able to move the ball on the ground.
White and Fournette continue to split this backfield down the middle. Fournette saw 14 opportunities last week to White’s 13. While Fournette is the better bet for a touchdown, White should be able to be more efficient on the ground. I like both as RB2s.
Week 16 Fantasy Football RB Sit ’ems
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (vs. BUF)
This one is similar to the Sanders proposition but in reverse. David Montgomery smashed last week, carrying fantasy teams to the semifinals. This week should be a much tougher task.
First, we have the Bills’ defense. While they showed some cracks against Raheem Mostert and Salvon Ahmed last week, they still allow the 12th-fewest fantasy points to the position.
Second, we have the impending return of Khalil Herbert. Even with Herbert out, managers have seen Darrynton Evans and Trestan Ebnar involved more than they’d like. Herbert is far superior to either of them and will likely return to a 35-40% role. At the very least, it caps Montgomery’s ceiling.
MORE: Week 16 Fantasy Start/Sit Recommendations
Montgomery’s odds of scoring this week are below 50%. It’s going to be extremely cold, which could slow the game down. While that may lead to more running, Montgomery has been supplementing his rushing with a nice receiving role, catching at least three passes in four consecutive games. That could come to an end against a defense that sees just 13.1% of its receiving yards allowed go to running backs.
All in all, this is a bad situation for a running back who may see his volume reduced. I would sit Montgomery if I could.
Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons (at BAL)
Early in the season, Cordarrelle Patterson was seeing a 60% snap share. He hasn’t hit that threshold since Week 3.
Last week, Tyler Allgeier played just one fewer snap than Patterson. More importantly, Allgeier out-carried and outplayed Patterson.
Allgeier ran the ball 17 times for 139 yards and a touchdown. Patterson had just 14 carries for 52 yards.
MORE: Week 16 Fantasy Football Sleepers
Additionally, the Falcons had a game environment where they could run the ball 30+ times. While that may still exist against the Ravens (if Tyler Huntley starts), the Falcons may not want to run it that much. Of course, they will regardless because they don’t believe in passing, but efficiency will be a problem.
The Ravens allow the seventh-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Their 3.8 ypc allowed is the third-lowest in the league. The Falcons run all they want — they just won’t get very far.
With his passing game role nonexistent, Patterson will need to score to be productive. The Ravens allow just 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game, and there’s only a 50% chance Patterson would even get the goal line work ahead of Allgeier. Sit him.