Week 15’s Saturday night matchup between the 10-3 Minnesota Vikings and 4-8-1 Indianapolis Colts isn’t terribly interesting for casual fans. Fantasy football managers are merely looking for the last push they may need as the playoffs are underway. Both the Vikings and Colts have high-end talent who should be in your lineup.
One Vikings playmaker in the spotlight to produce is wide receiver Adam Thielen. We’re on top of all angles in this matchup for fantasy managers and bettors alike — let’s dive into whether you should start Thielen against the Colts.
Should You Start Adam Thielen vs. the Colts?
We knew that while the Vikings’ passing offense would be refreshed under first-year head coach Kevin O’Connell, it’s still a unit that works through star receiver Justin Jefferson and running back Dalvin Cook before anyone else. Jefferson leads the NFL in receiving yards and Cook is top-six in rushing yards. We were less confident in how Thielen would fit in with K.J. Osborn and T.J. Hockenson poised to take some of his targets.
Thielen has fared just fine, even as he continues to show signs of aging. He’s been targeted four fewer times in as many games as he played last year, with 81 fewer yards and six fewer touchdowns. Essentially, his unsustainable red zone success finally cratered.
Still ranked as WR25 on the season in PPR leagues, Thielen remains a fine flex option for managers even as he embraces his possession role that creates fewer explosive plays. He’s averaging 11.8 points per game, benefitting from being in a top-10 passing offense. Having the No. 2 receiver in a high-volume offense continues to be a solid strategy despite concerns of cannibalism.
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Most promising for Thielen’s fantasy managers is his recent uptick in involvement. After topping seven targets only three times until Week 12, Thielen has accomplished this twice in the last three weeks. He’s responded with 61 or more yards and one score in each of those two games.
Facing the Colts on Thursday Night Football is a tough matchup. The Colts are the No. 1 defense in the NFL against wide receivers, giving up 10.2 receptions, 118.5 yards, and 0.69 touchdowns per game. They’re No. 3 in passing attempts and yards given up, as opponents have had more success on the ground.
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Since Week 3, only three teams have thrown for more than 173 yards on the Colts. I think Kirk Cousins and this cast of playmakers are able to go above that number, but the Colts have been run on quite easily. If Minnesota wants to grind this game out, they’ll be able to. One reason Thielen has seen more volume lately has been Minnesota’s tendency to play from behind.
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The Vikings may not trail in this matchup, making it less likely Thielen benefits from a pass-heavy script. He’s not an ideal start candidate this week due to the strength of the Colts’ passing defense and how willing Minnesota is to copy teams that have recently beaten the Colts.
If you start Thielen, you’re hoping for an unexpectedly close game throughout and for a lucky touchdown.