If you’re planning to make Week 15 NFL bets, here are my favorite wagers — my best bets for Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday games.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Early NFL Week 15 Best Bets
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, we’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Commanders vs. Giants | Moneyline — Commanders (-200)
In October, I warned that Saquon Barkley was on an unsustainable pace. Yes, his numbers were incredible. But I’m more interested in what might happen next week or next month. And his near-record pace of 425+ touches was, to be blunt, alarming.
Fast forward to this week, when the talk about Barkley isn’t his terrific numbers but rather his descent to mediocrity — or rather, sub-mediocrity. Since Week 8, not including a cakewalk over the hapless Texans, Barkley’s averaged only 2.8 yards per carry. Simply put, he’s struggled nearly every week in the second half of this season.
The problem is that the Giants have no better options. As I’ve written for some time, it’s been “Barkley or bust.” It’s no one’s fault. The Giants’ receiving corps looked pretty good on paper this summer. Then Sterling Shepard was knocked out for the season, Kadarius Toney couldn’t stay healthy and was traded, and Kenny Golladay has been the richest invisible man in sports.
So we’re left with the simple reality — the Commanders are a team on the rise despite their Week 1 starter getting hurt (and, it appears, getting replaced), dealing with the usual array of injuries, and overcoming a 1-4 start in the league’s toughest division to this “we control our playoff destiny” moment.
I expect Washington to win and win comfortably, with Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson overpowering a run defense yielding the league’s most yards per carry.
Commanders vs. Giants | -3.5 Commanders
And while we’re at it, I think the Commanders will win by 9+ points, making their point spread an easy call.
Consider how they’re winning: 49 rushing attempts in a Monday night upset over the undefeated Eagles. Then 40 carries the following week against Houston, followed by 37 versus Atlanta and 36 against these same Giants.
Here’s one of my favorite sets of stats from today, which goes to the heart of these two teams’ divergent fates. The Giants are fifth in the NFL in rushing attempts per game (31.5), while the Commanders are close behind in seventh (30.8).
But in their last three contests, New York has averaged a mere 24.7 carries, while Washington is No. 1 with 37.7.
This isn’t just about negative versus positive game scripts. The Commanders have been daring teams to stop them on the ground, and their opponents largely cannot. Perhaps because if they try, Washington has demonstrated they can strike quickly through the air, thanks to their best collection of receivers since 2016, if not earlier.
The Giants gave them their best two weeks ago, and it ended in a tie. Now in Washington’s house, I expect the Commanders to score early and force New York into a passing game they want no part of.
Chargers vs. Titans | Moneyline — Chargers (-164)
When two teams with the same record play each other, sometimes they’re toss-ups. In this AFC battle, I see a wide disparity.
The 7-6 Chargers have one of the best offenses in the league. It might not seem that way for a squad that’s only 14th in points scored. But consider this: Justin Herbert noticeably played hurt in multiple games. Mike Williams has missed four contests.
DeAndre Carter has more targets than Keenan Allen, who’s missed seven games. Yes, DeAndre Carter. And that’s no knock on Carter, who’s stepped up admirably. But for a team that was fifth in scoring last year, it’s been a massive uphill battle.
Meanwhile, Tennessee has largely coasted through the AFC South despite its 7-6 record, thanks in large part to Derrick Henry and an elite run defense. Despite a merely “good” 4.4 yards per carry, Henry’s No. 3 in the league with 25 broken tackles.
The Chargers are surrendering the second most rushing yards per carry. We might assume that Tennessee’s path to victory consists of (a) running Henry 24+ times through a porous L.A. line and (b) slowing the already slowed Austin Ekeler on the ground.
All doable.
Except I believe the Titans’ secondary will continue to be its undoing, especially against a Chargers pass attack that’s rounding into postseason form. Tennessee’s last three games — all losses — are roadmaps to a solid Chargers win.
Three weeks ago, despite missing Joe Mixon and Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Burrow threw 270 yards. The following week, Jalen Hurts threw for 380 yards (second highest of his career) and three scores. And this past weekend, Trevor Lawrence threw for a career-high 368 yards and three scores.
There’s no obvious solution for the Titans in Week 15. Justin Herbert realistically could throw for 400+ yards and four TDs. Tennessee’s best hope runs through Henry. But if they’re down 10+ points in the fourth or even third quarter, they might have to lean more on Ryan Tannehill. And that’s probably not a recipe for success.