The NFL’s social media quarterback, Justin Herbert, has been a hot topic on the internet over the past two weeks. Leading up to the Los Angeles Chargers‘ matchup against the Miami Dolphins, hundreds of writers put Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa under the microscope. And while many believe Herbert is one of the most talented passers in the league, others want us to pump the brakes.
PFN NFL Director Adam Beasley compared Herbert and Tua’s careers to date. Others took critical looks at each quarterback in their given situations early in their careers. And while there’s no doubt that Tua is having a much better season, we’ve seen what Herbert’s able to do when the cards aren’t stacked against him.
And let this be crystal clear; Herbert’s situation is far worse than the average fan realizes.
Justin Herbert | The Statistical Anomaly
Fans and analysts have bemoaned Joe Lombardi since first seeing the Chargers’ offensive structure in 2021. Somehow, the former Saints QB coach — one that was with Drew Brees for a few seasons and the combination of Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Golden Tate in Detroit as offensive coordinator for two seasons — has been unable to unlock what makes Herbert special.
You’d think the short-lived marriage with Stafford would have helped. Herbert is more mobile than Stafford, but both have truly special arm talent. But the Lions’ passing attack ranked 19th and 16th in passing DVOA during the 2014 and 2015 seasons, respectively. Over the two-year span, they ranked 17th in dropback EPA and 11th in success rate.
And that right there is the biggest problem. Excluding turnovers offensively drops them to 21st in dropback EPA over that time. They couldn’t consistently create explosives with Calvin freaking Johnson!
MORE: QB Power Rankings 2022
So the Chargers need to be deathly efficient. And when nobody gets open and you’d win money betting on stopping routes at the sticks on third downs, you won’t have any sort of sustainability.
Hell, analysts cried after 2021 concluded. In that season, the Bolts’ offense finished fourth in passing DVOA, seventh in dropback EPA, and eighth in success rate — and everyone still hated watching that offense function.
Lombardi is using his LaFerrari as a daily driver, and the parts that are supposed to make the engine go have crumbled around the hybrid V12. It’s still a beautiful piece of machinery, but it’s not getting around the track the way it would if it was used properly.
Herbert’s numbers in 2022 are horrible relative to his skill. Nobody denies that.
- EPA + CPOE composite: 22nd of 33
- Adjusted EPA per play: 22nd
- CPOE: 16th
- aDOT: 31st
- DYAR: 14th
- DVOA: 19th
- QBR: 12th
- ALEX: 25th
Most people who spend much of their adult lives specifically watching quarterback play will tell you — despite everything you just read — that Herbert is one of the top five or so talents at the position.
Even as a fierce proponent of statistical measures to supplement film study, sometimes one must close out the extra tabs on the monitor and just watch the damn game.
Statistical Outliers on Both Ends of the Spectrum
The Herbert argument feels a lot like the inverse of the Jimmy Garoppolo argument. Garoppolo has produced the second-highest adjusted EPA ranking since 2018, and nobody would dream of claiming him as a top-five QB.
Because the eyes of nearly every expert tell us he isn’t, and the fact that San Francisco couldn’t find a trade partner for him hammered those opinions home. While quarterback is the most important position in professional sports, football is still very much a team game. It takes 11 grown men doing their jobs to consistently find success, and that’s before we even get to coaching.
One West Coast team simply happens to do everything, from roster construction, to coaching hires, to schematics, better than the other. The only thing they have in common is similarly bad injury luck.
In the age of information, we’re held hostage by the numbers. Please, for everyone’s sake, put the numbers down when evaluating Herbert and just watch the young man play football.
Justin Herbert Tape vs. Raiders Tells an Unsettling Story
The Las Vegas Raiders have one of the worst defensive backfields in the NFL. After 14 weeks and 13 games, they rank in the bottom three of passing DVOA and dropback EPA. Even so, saying that separation was hard to come by for the Chargers would be an understatement.
Two backup offensive tackles against Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby is already a recipe for disaster. Add in a nonexistent rushing attack, no Mike Williams, and a complete lack of speed on the outside, and you’re looking at a situation that would have Patrick Mahomes looking average. And he’s arguably the most talented passer ever.
The margins are razor-thin, and the blade is sharp.
Herbert only found a reprieve when Las Vegas would decide to drop everybody into coverage, allowing him to actually hit a checkdown in stride for a couple of yards.
Keenan Allen is either banged up or on the towel rack at this point. He’s still a great route runner, but any explosiveness he had seems to have escaped him.
Every QB has their off weeks. And when Herbert has an off week, the Chargers’ offense is fugazi. It simply ceases to exist. Herbert must play as near-to-perfect football as possible just to see average results offensively.
But Herbert was fine against Las Vegas. In fact, he played well, given the hand he was dealt. And after a drive that resulted in a 35-yard social media throw for a touchdown to Allen got the game within a score, Herbert needed a bit more magic.
He completed three straight passes and picked up two first downs before a fateful four-play stretch effectively ended things for the Chargers. One of Herbert’s completions looked like this, by the way.
Social media wasn’t abuzz about this throw, but they could have been. Nobody was open, and there was only a sliver of an opportunity to complete a pass to Gerald Everett as he crossed behind the linebacker before a defender molly-whopped Herbert on the attempt.
Herbert accounted for the free rusher, eluded him, kept his eyes downfield, and delivered an accurate pass just before being de-cleated. If you’re looking for what “normal” looks like with Herbert, this is about it.
And on the Chargers’ final four-play series, you’ll get another glimpse of the scraps he’s trying to turn into gold.
A one-yard loss, a two-yard gain, a free rusher, and a sideline throw to DeAndre Carter on a do-or-die fourth down. The question I want to ask Herbert’s detractors is this, “What do you want Herbert to do?”
It’s easy to sit back with a cigar and a scotch and say he needs to elevate his surroundings. The real question is, “How?” How is he supposed to do that? How is he supposed to buy enough time to consistently deliver passes to receivers without a lick of separation?
More horrifying examples of offensive incompetence can be found here. The reason Herbert is seen as a highlight QB is that he’s consistently put into impossible situations and somehow makes lemonade out of a hand grenade.
The Miami Game Was Eye-Opening
Think about how well Herbert played against the Dolphins. He managed the pocket well and eluded rushers left and right on his way to completing 39 of 51 pass attempts. He even added in a highlight throw or two for Twitter to swoon over.
And yet, despite how we feel he looked against, well, another underwhelming defense, his output was average. His QBR on the night was 67.6, which is a respectable number that would rank him fifth would it be his average. However, Herbert contributed just 0.11 EPA per play, a mark that would rank him around 15th in the NFL extrapolated over a 17-game sample.
The Chargers’ offense has no juice, aside from the occasional jump ball to Williams. Herbert needs a Class III license to possess that right arm and shoulder attached to him. But his aDOT was just 5.5 yards for the game.
We’ve seen teams with struggling offensive lines. Hell, the Dolphins’ offensive line isn’t exactly the Philadelphia Eagles group. But pairing backup offensive tackles with no speed on the outside and a scheme only a mother could love, there is little hope for consistent success with Herbert.
Unless he is nearly perfect like he was on Sunday night.
MORE: Defenses Seem To Have Figured Out Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins’ Offense
In an era that has been built through the rules of the game to cater to speed and agility over strength, size, and physicality, it’s egregious to field a receiving corps like the Chargers. We live in a world where the Chargers miss Jalen Guyton, a player with 61 career receptions and a 56% reception rate in his four-year career.
Because without a speed threat to take the top off defenses, they can sit and prey on the intermediate level. Speed is what made the Dolphins’ offense special before Tua’s two-game slump. Speed is what forces safeties to give eight yards of cushion instead of four, keeping them from closing on the in-breaker in time. Tom Telesco and the Chargers have ignored the league’s greatest advantage.
Make no mistake, the Dolphins’ secondary made things easier on Herbert and the Chargers than the Raiders, as ironic as that probably sounds. While Herbert was pressured 25 times against Miami and only 24 times against Las Vegas, the Raiders were able to do that with four more often, allowing seven to sit in coverage without letting the Chargers’ receivers breathe.
And that’s the thing. When Herbert is afforded the opportunity to make a play, even your run-of-the-mill checkdown, he does it. Then, he can also make plays like the Williams touchdown pass rolling right and the unbelievable throwback downfield, in stride, while being pressured.
Give Herbert a healthy offensive line, a healthy offensive mind at OC, and literally any speed on the outside, and watch him take flight in 2023.