Our Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills prediction takes a look at the Week 15 matchup that features a strong AFC East rivalry.
Let’s dive into the current NFL betting odds, key storylines to watch, and make a prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, Dec. 12.
Dolphins vs. Bills Odds | Week 15
- Spread
Bills -7.5 - Moneyline
Bills -325, Dolphins +270 - Over/Under
42 points
Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction
The Dolphins were one of the hottest teams through the first 12 weeks of the season. Since that point though, they’ve come to a screeching halt — and the offense is struggling to find its way.
In Week 14, the Dolphins fell to a 6-6 Los Angeles Chargers team in prime time, 23-17. The Miami defense allowed Justin Herbert to throw for 367 yards, the running game totaled just 92 total rushing yards, and Tua Tagovailoa struggled immensely.
In a game where Tua knew eyes were going to be on him as he battled Herbert, he threw for just 145 yards and one touchdown on just a 35% completion rate. Tagovailoa completed just 10 passes in Week 14 against a Chargers defense that’s been battling injuries and was down multiple playmakers on the back end.
The key for Miami getting out of this minor slump and closing the gap on their rival for the division lead centers around their QB. Can Tua break out of this two-game stretch of bad performances and look sharp against a stout Bills defense?
If he can look like he did back in Week 3 at least — the last time Buffalo and Miami played — the Dolphins have a chance of pulling within one game of the Bills. If he continues to play like he has the past two weeks, Miami won’t be able to do enough to keep this game close.
As for Buffalo, they’re now riding a four-game win streak coming into this showdown with Miami, and they have a firm grasp of the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They’ll need to secure another victory here this week, however, to hold onto that title.
MORE: Early NFL Week 15 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
The key storyline to watch for Buffalo moving forward is the performance of Josh Allen. Obviously, Allen is a big reason why Buffalo is currently sitting in the first-place seat in the AFC. Nonetheless, he has struggled to put up the top-tier numbers we’ve come to expect from him recently.
In the last four games, Allen has just one performance of over 250 passing yards. While Buffalo has won all four of those contests, it’s concerning when you consider that there are two performances where he’s thrown for less than a 60% completion rate.
If Allen isn’t going to deliver his patented 300+ yard passing performances, Buffalo will need to continue to find other ways to compensate when they come up against more prolific passing offenses.
On paper, Miami fits that categorization. Will they perform that way in Week 15 against the Bills’ defense, though?
If the Dolphins get back to form, the Bills will need Allen to look a lot sharper than he has in recent weeks to move to 11 wins on the season.
Dolphins vs. Bills Score Prediction
Dolphins 21, Bills 28