Today, we break down this week’s football slate, see what the NFL weather report and forecast for Week 14 will be, and determine if any of your fantasy football players could be impacted. As always, good luck, stay safe, and let’s win the week!
NFL Weather Report and Forecast for Week 14: Rain and Snow To Impact Both Coasts
All times are Eastern, and the NFL Week 14 weather report will be updated if any changes happen from the time of writing to kickoff. The NFL weather forecast for Week 14 is based on reports from the National Weather Service. All betting lines are from the NFL’s official website.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-10), O/U 43.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
While this won’t be a fun snowstorm this week, check back next week as we will see some weather pop up in the middle of the week that will push to the Northeast as part of a somewhat rare triple-dip La Nina.
This is the leading part of this week-long system, and on Sunday, Buffalo could see a wintery mix, but more than likely, it will be a chilly rain with temperatures around 39 that will feel freezing, if not just below, thanks to 10 to 13 mph winds and rainfall estimates in the 0.01 to 0.02in/hr range.
I’m not overly concerned, and if you planned on starting players in this game, I’d stick with the plan — especially if that plan includes Garrett Wilson, who is continuing to prove that rookie wide receivers are a cheat code for fantasy football.
MORE: Week 14 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Recommendations
He has recorded 92 receiving yards in three of his last four games while finishing as the WR11, WR5, and WR9. Since Mike White took over as quarterback, Wilson has a near 28% target share while seeing over 45% of the air yards with a whopping 3.17 YPRR.
He is 16th in YAC/reception and has blossomed into a must-start wide receiver. Buffalo has struggled of late against wide receivers, allowing 43.2 PPR points over the last four games, second most in the NFL. He is the WR12 in my Week 14 rankings.
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Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at New York Giants, O/U 44.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
East Rutherford will see very similar weather conditions to Buffalo. Temperatures will be around 39 degrees but feel around freezing with eight mph winds. There is also an 80% chance of rain with totals in the 0.02 to 0.03 in/hr range.
The same also applies to your fantasy decisions, as I wouldn’t make any decisions based on the weather. That’s a convo for next week, which is going to be a pain in the butt for the first round of the fantasy football playoffs for the majority of leagues.
What concerns me is the matchup for the Giants. Darius Slayton has been the only viable WR for the Giants this year but faces the toughest secondary in the league with Darius Slay and James Bradberry. Daniel Jones, a weekly streaming option due to his rushing upside, is a shaky QB2 against the Eagles’ defense that is sixth in success rate, fifth in passing yards per game, and eighth in EPA since Week 10.
Making matters worse is that Saquon Barkley is dealing with a neck injury, and while beat reporters are saying he will play, Barkley has seen his efficiency dip to 47th in yards after contact per attempt since Week 8. You’re still starting Barkley as a low-end RB1, but it’s going to be tough sledding.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5), O/U 37.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
California residents aren’t used to this weather this time of year, but Santa Clara is being impacted by a pretty decent storm system that all goes together with next week’s incoming weather system. A rather large bowling ball trough is coming through and bringing with it cooler Arctic air that will eventually turn into someone’s White Christmas either in the Northern Plains or even to the Appalachians if it dips low enough.
On Sunday, this will mean chillier temps for the Bay area at 51 degrees and overcast skies with six mph winds. And with it comes an 80% chance of rain during the game that really feels closer to 100% chance. Rain totals are expected in the 0.03 in/hr range, but I do expect periods of heavier rain at times with an increased chance of thunderstorms. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if kickoff is delayed due to a lightning strike in the area.
This might sound all doom and gloom, but really that’s nothing too crazy. You could see a few ball security issues, but the 49ers could be playing in a snow globe, and I am not sure that would be enough to recommend sitting them. Christian McCaffrey is #GoodAtFootball, and Brandon Aiyuk has turned into the 49ers’ No. 1 option. He is the WR24 in fantasy with a 22.7% target share and 30.0% air-yard share and has finished as the WR18 or higher in four of his last six games.
When it comes to the Buccaneers, the last thing they need to worry about is the weather. The only player I feel confident about starting in Week 14 is Chris Godwin. Leonard Fournette is back and cutting into Rachaad White’s upside, and there is no chemistry between Tom Brady and Mike Evans. I get it if you don’t have better options because of six teams on a bye, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable at all.
NFL Weather Report and Forecast for Week 14 Games: Worry-Free Weather
After a week full of surprises, the rest of the Week 14 slate of games should be smooth sailing as it relates to the weather forecast.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5), O/U 46.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Deshaun Watson didn’t look good last week, but it wasn’t a surprise. He was rusty in the preseason, and it was his first game in roughly 700 days. There was always going to be rust. He should have a better game in week 14 against the Bengals, especially if they get Nick Chubb rolling and can work off the play-action and take a few shots to Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones.
They’ll need him to have a better game as, for the first time in several weeks, Cincinnati has its full complement of weapons at its disposal. Joe Mixon is back after missing the last two games with a concussion, Tee Higgins is off the injury report (hamstring), and Ja’Marr Chase came back last week and saw his alpha role, leading the team with a 25.8% target share and 29% air yard share.
As for the weather in Cincinnati, expect mostly cloudy skies with 48-degree temperatures and light winds.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5), O/U 36.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Tyler Huntley will be under center for the Ravens, and they reignite their rivalry with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Huntley completed 27 of his 32 attempts (84.4 pct.) for 187 yards & rushed for 41 yards, including the game-willing TD with 28 seconds remaining last week.
He’ll also have J.K. Dobbins in the backfield as he returns off the IR. Dobbins underwent arthroscopic knee surgery and has missed the majority of the year as he continues to recover after tearing his ALC, LCL, meniscus, and hamstring last year in the preseason. However, I wouldn’t start him in fantasy, as we do not know what his volume will look like on Sunday.
MORE: Week 14 PPR Fantasy Football Rankings
I’d also stay away from Diontae Johnson, who continues to do less with more than anyone else I can think of in fantasy. Even last week, despite seeing 11 targets, he had just 11 points. He has 105 targets but has yet to score a touchdown this year. Johnson’s floor is in the single digits, and while he is 16th in target share and 26th in air-yard share, he is 73rd in points per route and 97 in points per target.
This is nothing new and something I talked about in the offseason.
Flashback to 2020, and of the 35 WRs with 100+ targets, Johnson was 32nd in yards per reception (10.5), 34th in yards per target (6.41), and 33rd in points per target (1.54). Last year when compared to WRs with 100+ targets (35 again), Johnson was 27th in yards per reception (10.8), 31st in yards per target (6.87), and 26th in fantasy points per target (1.6 PPR). Yeah, no thank you.
Expect 45-degree temperatures in Pittsburgh with mostly cloudy skies and seven mph winds.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5), O/U 40.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
We know what is coming, right? This is the Derrick Henry smash game. King Henry has 115 or more scrimmage yards in two of his past three games and three of his last four at home. He rushed for 130 yards and three touchdowns in 2021 and is looking to make it three in a row with 130+ and two scores.
Going further, in his 11 games against the Jaguars, Henry has 1,143 rushing yards, 150 receiving yards, and 15 total touchdowns (117.5 per game). He is going to go ballistic and is a top-three-ranked RB for Week 14.
As for the weather forecast for Week 14 in Nashville, expect mostly sunny skies and 53-degree temperatures with winds around seven mph.
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at Denver Broncos, O/U 43.5 | Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
The Denver Broncos are a dumpster fire on offense. The only player I feel somewhat comfortable starting off of this offense is TE Greg Dulcich. He looked great in Week 13 against the Ravens with six catches and 85 yards on eight targets. That’s a 38.1% target share and 42.1% airy yard share. With Courtland Sutton (hamstring) likely out for Week 14 and an expected negative game strip against the Chiefs, Dulcich is easily inside the top 12 this week.
Expect 60-degree temperatures in Denver with mostly sunny skies and seven mph winds.
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5), O/U 44.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Did Sam Darnold save Christmas for D.J. Moore managers? Last week, Moore recorded a 35% target share to finish with four catches for 103 yards and a touchdown. He also had a downright laughable 76% air yard share (146).
Dating back to last season when Darnold was starting, Moore had a 29% target share (9.8 per game) and a 42% air-yard share. The matchup against Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Tariq Woolen is going to be fun to watch. He’s a low-end WR2 for fantasy in Week 14.
As for the running backs, D’Onta Foreman began the week with a DNP (foot) but returned and closed the week with a full participation on Friday. He is good to go as an RB2 against a Seattle defense that, since Week 10, is 32nd in yards, explosive rate, DVOA, and 31st in EPA.
The same cannot be said for Kenneth Walker III and DeeJay Dallas, who did not practice last week, and while they are listed as game-time decisions, I would say they are doubtful at best. My initial hunch of Travis Homer being the No. 1 RB for Seattle looks to be accurate.
I could see a path where Homer is a flex play that seems north of 15 touches in a favorable matchup against a Panthers defense that, since Week 10, is 24th in rushing success rate, 20th in yards, 25th in explosive run rate, and 21st in EPA.
Indoor Games in Week 14
Because these NFL games are indoors, the weather conditions can be controlled. As such, it’ll be optimal playing conditions for these teams. The passing and kicking games will not be affected.
- Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys
- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
- Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers
- New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals