Tuanon comes to primetime in our quarterback matchup for Week 14 in what is becoming a true fan-focused rivalry despite the two players never playing against one another. Justin Herbert vs. Tua Tagovailoa has been an ongoing debate among not just the fans of both teams but maybe even more so within the confines of the Miami Dolphins fan base itself.
Now, of course, they are not taking the field against each other directly. Tua will be facing the Chargers’ defense, and Herbert will be facing the Dolphins’ defense. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t still find a way to get them going head to head and win some money in the process in our Super Smash QB Matchup of the Week.
That’s where Underdog Fantasy comes in to help us capitalize on what promises to be an entertaining matchup.
Underdog Pick’ems for Justin Herbert vs. Tua Tagovailoa matchup
This past Wednesday, Trey Wingo and myself, as we do each week on our show Football Insiders, broke down this ballyhooed matchup of young signal callers drafted one pick apart in 2020.
There is no questioning the talent and moxy Justin Herbert brings to this matchup. He is already widely seen as one of the game’s top young phenoms. Tua’s ride to stardom, however, was not as immediate. For more on how we got to this point, our Adam Beasley wrote a great piece relitigating the merits of both Tagovailoa and Herbert.
One of the more celebrated quarterbacks coming out of college, his production in the NFL was filled with stops and starts and a coach who didn’t fully trust him. With Mike McDaniel, however, Tua is putting up some of the best statistics in the entire NFL. Not to mention, as of now, he is the top vote-getter in Pro Bowl voting. Now, through Underdog, we are going to have the stars collide.
The best part about Underdog Fantasy is that it allows us to take the typically hypothetical quarterback matchups between the game’s best players and put them in actual head-to-head situations for us to have a shot at winning some money.
Luckily for us, there are a number of matchups where we get to put Herbert and Tagovailoa against each other in Underdog Pick ‘Ems Higher or Lower and other entries that we can fill out our Underdog Pick ‘Ems roster with.
Below are my Underdog plays using my Behavior Bets sports betting model.
Tua Tagovailoa LOWER than 285.5 Passing Yards
Tagovailoa leads an offense that is second in the league in points scored per minute of possession over the last six weeks, averaging 0.92 points per minute. That is just behind Dallas, which has been an otherworldly 1.2 points per minute. Much of that production has come via the air.
Tua leads the league in that same time frame in passing yards per minute of possession time at 10.77 yards per minute. Even in the loss to the 49ers, in just over 19 minutes of possession time, he threw for 15 yards per minute. These are just insane numbers. So then, why am I projecting the lower here?
Players don’t perform in a vacuum. There will be a defense on the other side. The Chargers only give up 7.4 yards per minute of possession to opposing quarterbacks. Further, they have only given up 285 yards or more twice this entire season. When we run this and other data inside of the Behavior Bets model, Tua is projected to throw for less than 285 yards — but only slightly, at 284 yards.
I’m taking the lower, but I expect him to be right around that 285 number. That makes this a more risky take with little margin for the unexpected, but the trends show this to be the most likely outcome.
Justin Herbert LOWER than 310.5 passing yards
I was actually surprised to see the Underdog projection for Herbert higher than Tua’s. But then I remembered that this game is on the road, and the Miami defense becomes just an “efense” and loses the “d” on the road. Brock Purdy did just drop 26 points and 266 yards on them.
However, 310 yards is too gaudy for my liking for Herbert. Miami has given up 300 yards just once in the last eight weeks. They are giving up almost 8 yards per minute of possession time, and Herbert is averaging 9.3 passing yards of possession time. Both would have to be above average to get him to that number. In fact, Herbert has thrown for more than 300 yards just three times in the entire season.
The Behavior Bets model projects him to throw for lower than that when accounting for the Week 14 environment impacted by the Dolphins’ defense. In fact, I project him to throw well below 310 yards. Getting to 250 passing yards may not even happen.
Pick ‘Em Rivals: Tua Tagovailoa +7.5 more yards than Justin Herbert
The Underdog Pick ‘Em Rivals game is where we see the true head-to-head action of Tua Tagovailoa vs. Justin Herbert. I love to make this type of Pick ‘Em entry as part of a larger Rivals Pick ‘Em roster.
Based on the Behavior Bets model projections for each quarterback in passing yards, I project Tua Tagovailoa to finish the game with more passing yards than Justin Herbert, despite him getting yards in this head-to-head. Underdog is potting him 7.5 yards in this matchup, and that margin, according to the model, could be multiples more than that.
Not only does this account for the unique defensive environments each quarterback will be playing in, but it also accounts for each quarterback’s individual efforts this season. There could be some really good value here.
With my Underdog Fantasy entries as well as my Week 14 game predictions and bets at Caesars Sportsbook, you can follow all of it in one place with the best bet tracking app on the market in Pikkit. It’s completely free and the easiest place to track bets, engage with me and others, and join the fast-growing sports Pikkit betting community.