Despite uncertainty over the QB situation, Demarcus Robinson and Devin Duvernay are both intriguing waiver wire considerations for fantasy football managers in Week 14. Let’s examine the fantasy value of both Robinson and Duvernay this week and how fantasy managers should prioritize the pair this week.
Demarcus Robinson or Devin Duvernay: Who Should You Add From the Waiver Wire?
Over the past five games, Robinson’s output has been a roller coaster. In Weeks 8, 11, and 13, he’s accumulated eight or more targets in all three games, with at least 7.6 fantasy points in half-PPR formats in all three (an average of 11.4 fantasy points per game). However, in Weeks 9 and 12, he had four targets in each game, with just one reception per game for 12 and 17 yards, respectively.
The Week 13 numbers for Robinson are intriguing. While he still saw eight targets, there was a clear difference in output. He averaged just 5.86 yards per reception, compared to more than 10 yards per reception in each of the previous four weeks.
Digging deeper, when we look at the advanced stats, the average depth of target (ADOT) in Week 13 was not that much different than in Weeks 8 and 11. At 6.4 yards per target, it was 1.1 yards more than Week 8 and 3.4 yards less than Week 11. All three of those weeks were significantly below his one-reception games when his ADOT was 16.3 in Week 9 and 13 in Week 12.
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The biggest difference came in his yards after the catch, where he averaged two yards after the catch per reception, compared to 4.4 and 6.0 in the other two “big” weeks. That might be a product of Tyler Huntley being under center, but it could also just be due to good tackling from the Denver Broncos’ defense.
Duvernay’s usage in the past two weeks has yielded five and six targets, respectively. In both games, he has also seen two rushing attempts for an average of 7.5 opportunities per game. That has resulted in an average of 28.5 receiving yards, 4.5 receptions, and 12.5 rushing yards per game.
Consequently, in half-PPR scoring, Duvernay has averaged just 6.35 fantasy points per game, with a maximum output of 7.3 fantasy points in Week 13. To get close to having 12-team relevance, Duvernay needs to find the end zone. His maximum half-PPR output without finding the end zone in a single game is 10.3 fantasy points in Week 5. Behind that, his 7.3 fantasy points in Week 13 is the next highest.
How Should Fantasy Managers Prioritize Robinson and Duvernay on the Waiver Wire?
The duo of Duvernay and Robinson is intriguing for fantasy managers on the waiver wire this week. Robinson is the one who has flashed the potential to be a consistent week-to-week, 12-team fantasy option but has yet to deliver on it fully. The situation with Jackson and Huntley makes it even harder to trust him completely.
However, Robinson is the option with both the higher floor and the higher ceiling from this pair. In 12-team leagues, Robinson has returned fringe starting-level value in two of the past five games, compared to none for Duvernay. With six teams on a bye this week, Robinson’s output of 7.6 fantasy points last week would likely be enough to see him finish as a starting-level option if he repeats it this week.
Additionally, in Week 14, the Ravens face the Steelers, who are an intriguing matchup. On average this season, the Steelers have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing WRs (32.86). Then again, in the last four weeks, they have held the position under 20 fantasy points on three occasions. In shutting down the Saints, Colts, and Falcons WRs, the Steelers have shown their pass defense can be a solid group against less-than-stellar WR play.
Focusing on those three games, the Steelers have allowed one WR to have success in the last two of those games. Michael Pittman had 61 yards and a touchdown, while Drake London had 95 yards on six receptions. Robinson is the most likely of the receivers to have that kind of output this week.
Duvernay has been used in an interesting way this year, making him a boom/bust late-round selection in Underdog Fantasy Best Ball leagues. He is less reliable in standard, season-long leagues, with Robinson the safer of the two and possessing a similar ceiling.
With Robinson firmly above Duvernay in the waiver wire priority order this week, where he fits into the position is tougher to judge. The other options potentially available this week include Jahan Dotson, Nico Collins, DJ Chark, Jameson Williams, and Corey Davis. Of that group, the only other WR who appears to have a chance to be the WR1 for their offense is Collins, as Brandin Cooks deals with an injury.
However, Dotson and Davis have demonstrated they can produce weekly despite being the second or third target in the offense. Dotson has been a little boom/bust depending on his ability to find the end zone. He has scored touchdowns in four of his eight games and three of the four in which he played more than 75% of the offensive snaps. Chark has 11 targets in the past two weeks and has been a solid contributor, but the presence of Williams clouds that picture a little.
Williams is the ultimate upside shot this week. If you have a nice roster and want to add a player with a huge ceiling, he is that player. He did not have a single target on eight snaps but should work his way into the offense more as we get deeper into the fantasy playoffs.
With the uncertainty over Jackson and this passing game, Robinson is marginally behind Dotson, Davis, and Collins in terms of priority. If you play in FAAB (or waiver priority), then a 5-10% bid should be plenty in a 12-team league. As for Duvernay, he is actually at the bottom of this list, with Williams having a more enticing upside if you are shooting for that. Duvernay is nothing more than a $0 bid right now as insurance in case you miss out on your higher-priority targets.