NFL offenses have exploded in the past few years, and some of the best players to ever play football are actively on the path to setting or breaking NFL single-season records as a result of it.
Not only that, but the 17-game season gives players an extra opportunity to add to their totals. There aren’t any rushing or individual defensive records to break at the moment, which is a product of the modern game. Given the current pace of the season, here are the NFL records most likely to be broken this season.
NFL Single-Season Records That Could Be Broken This Season
NFL Season Passing Yards Record
Current Record: Peyton Manning – 5,477 (2013)
Record-chaser: Patrick Mahomes – 3,585
The NFL’s best quarterback by most measures, Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes might take Peyton Manning’s single-season passing yardage record, given that he’s currently on pace for 5,540.5 passing yards. The Chiefs have gotten better at running the ball, but they’re still a pass-dominant team and are only getting better. Mahomes could easily take the record from Manning by the year’s end.
NFL Season Passing Yards per Game
Current Record: Peyton Manning – 342.3 (2013)
Record-chaser: Patrick Mahomes – 325.9
Most NFL records are at risk of falling because of the extra game this season compared to when most records were broken. But Mahomes can beat Manning’s single-season passing yardage record not only by having another game but by throwing for more passing yards per game. It’s a sign of how potent the Chiefs’ offense can be.
NFL Season Pass Completion Rate
Current Record: Drew Brees – 74.4 percent (2018)
Record-chaser: Geno Smith – 72.8 percent
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith is having an extraordinary career revival, and his performance has given the Seahawks a chance to compete this year despite trading away their franchise quarterback for quite a few picks.
He’s done it with an efficient offense designed around completions – though he still is willing to sling it deep from time to time. That approach has allowed him to get within striking distance of Drew Brees’ passing completion rate record.
NFL Season Pass Completion Record
Current Record: Tom Brady – 485 (2021)
Record-chaser: Justin Herbert – 312
Right now, Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is on pace to complete 482 passes, just three shy of the record Tom Brady set last year. As the Chargers continue to find themselves in one-score games, it’s entirely possible that Herbert’s pass attempt total – and therefore his completion total – will increase this season, especially with a healthier receiving corps.
NFL Season Pass Attempt Record
Current Record: Matthew Stafford – 727 (2012)
Record-chaser: Tom Brady – 470
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady is on pace to throw 726 passes this season and was within striking distance of the record last year when he threw 719. Given how often the Buccaneers have found themselves trailing in the fourth quarter this season, it’s not surprising to see Brady once again atop the pass attempt list. If that continues, Brady could add to his impressive record total with one more single-season mark.
NFL Season Quarterback Fourth-Quarter Comebacks Record
Current Record: Matthew Stafford – 8 (2016)
Record-chaser: Kirk Cousins – 6
Fourth-quarter comebacks are defined by Pro Football Reference as any game where a team ends up with a win or a tie where they possess the ball and run a play from scrimmage in a fourth quarter while trailing. The scoring play that brings the team back from a deficit must occur as a result of an offensive drive.
Matthew Stafford did that eight times in 2016 for the Detroit Lions, and Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has already done it six times this year. Should the Vikings continue their proclivity for playing one-score games, he could break the record – he’s on pace for nearly ten comebacks this season.
NFL Season Quarterback Game-Winning Drives Record
Current Record: Matthew Stafford – 8 (2016)
Record-chaser: Kirk Cousins – 6; Daniel Jones – 6
Game-winning drives are slightly different than fourth-quarter comebacks in that they can only occur in wins, and they must occur when down by one score or tied. They are highly correlated, but the reason New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has six game-winning drives but only four fourth-quarter comebacks is that he’s won games that were tied entering the fourth quarter. Both Cousins and Jones are hot on the heels of Stafford’s game-winning drives record.
NFL Season Receiving Yards Record
Current Record: Calvin Johnson – 1,964 (2012)
Record-chaser: Tyreek Hill – 1,233; Justin Jefferson – 1,232
Both Miami Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill and Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson are slightly behind the pace needed to beat Calvin Johnson’s record for total receiving yards in a season, but both, at one point, were on pace for 2,000 yards in a season.
They will need to up their production in the final stretch of the season – they’re on pace for 1,906 and 1,904 yards, respectively – but just need an increase of ten receiving yards per game in their final six games of the season (121.8 yards per game).
NFL Season Yards per Punt
Current Record: Sammy Baugh – 51.4 (1940)
Record-chaser: Ryan Stonehouse – 53.1; Logan Cooke – 51.2
It’s a testament to how well Tennessee Titans punter Ryan Stonehouse is playing that he’s set to break a record that’s lasted since 1940 (it should be noted that among post-merger players, Shane Lechler came within inches of former Washington quarterback/punter Sammy Baugh’s record at 51.1 yards per punt in 2009).
Jacksonville Jaguars punter Logan Cooke is ahead of the modern record at 51.2, and a few well-placed punts could put him ahead of Baugh. The Titans and Jaguars hope that there won’t be too many opportunities for their own punters to change their averages.