The NFL season is back for another week of action, and fantasy football managers are ready for a full slate of games to flood their TVs this weekend. As not all matchups or roles are equal, we’re breaking down our top fantasy football start/sit Week 13 plays.
Week 13 Fantasy Football Start ’ems
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
This is 100% the chalk answer for the week, but that’s not going to stop me from listing Trevor Lawrence as a starter for Week 13. Lawrence had his first career 300-yard game with 321 yards and three touchdowns — as well as the game-winning two-point conversion — last week against the Ravens. He looked poised in the big moments and was the closest I can remember to how he looked at Clemson.
There was pace on Lawrence’s ball, and he was decisive in his decision-making, the 75-yard drive with time running out that included a crucial fourth-down conversion, a touchdown to Marvin Jones Jr., and the two-point conversion to Zay Jones.
Since Week 6, Lawrence has been a top-12 fantasy QB in five of six games, including four in the top eight.
I expect a ton of points in this game, as do the oddsmakers, giving this the second-highest total of the week at 51.5. The Lions allowed the trio of Justin Fields (40), Daniel Jones (26), and Josh Allen (30) to combine for 96 PPR points. Watch for Lawrence to put up another QB1 performance in Week 13 against Detroit.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns
Well, here we go. We knew this day was coming, and it’s finally time. Deshaun Watson is set to make his 2022 debut after serving his 11-game suspension. Surely the fact it comes against the Houston Texans was a complete and utter coincidence, right? I really hope the sarcasm came through right there.
Sunday will be Watson’s first game since January 2021. No doubt he looked rough in the preseason. I also expect some rust on Sunday in what is the Texans’ Super Bowl.
MORE: Deshaun Watson and Jimmy Garoppolo Are Top QB Streamers for Week 13
The Texans appear to be a formidable defense against QBs by allowing the third-fewest points, but it’s because teams can run all over them and don’t have to move the ball in the air.
Nick Chubb will undoubtedly have a field day, but if you snagged Watson off the waiver wire knowing this was coming, I’d start him as a low-end QB1. There is risk involved, but Watson has something to prove in a game that he can’t afford to play poorly in, given the circumstances.
Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans
Speaking of the Texans, Dameon Pierce needs a get-right game. He broke out in Week 3 and went on a tear of seven straight games as an RB2 or better. But over the last few weeks, he’s been a significant disappointment. In the last two games, Pierce has totaled 15 carries for 16 yards with less than 5.0 PPR fantasy points in each.
However, context is needed. Over Pierce’s last four games, he’s played a brutal schedule, including games against the Titans, Eagles, Giants, and Commanders.
Cleveland, meanwhile, gives up a ton of production to running backs. They’re 31st in points allowed and DVOA, 25th in EPA, and 26th in success rate. Additionally, they’ve allowed the fourth-most yards and fifth-most touchdowns.
So long as the Texans don’t get blown out, Pierce should be back in the RB2 range for Week 13. If not, I’m not sure when managers can completely trust him again.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions
By no means am I denying Jamaal Williams as the RB to roster in Detroit. His 13 rushing TDs are the most for a Lions RB since Barry Sanders set the franchise record in 1991 with 16. Williams is looking to make it four in a row with a rushing TD, but D’Andre Swift is a bit too low in perceived value, and I think a better game is on the way.
Would you believe me if I told you Swift was 10th in expected fantasy points last week? While he rushed for 19 yards on five carries and went four of eight receiving for 24 yards as the RB31, Swift had a TD overturned, and the Lions proceeded to give him two more looks in a row. One was a pass that was off-target by a pressured Jared Goff, and the other was a run that went nowhere.
For the first time since Week 8, Swift is off the injury report, and head coach Dan Campbell during the week said they plan to give him more touches. Swift regained a full share of the long down and distance snaps, plus 100% of the targets out of the backfield.
While Jacksonville is 19th in points, they allow the seventh-most points per target to running backs despite having yet to surrender a receiving touchdown. With a high-scoring, up-tempo game script in mind, Swift is a low-end RB2 for fantasy in Week 13 who I’m starting as a Flex option.
Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
After signing a massive contract in the offseason, which surprised many, Christian Kirk has seen more than enough volume to justify his paycheck. Last week, Kirk only had 8.1 PPR fantasy points in the win, but it was the fourth time in the last five games in which he had 9+ targets.
Kirk is the WR10 on the year and, since Week 7, is averaging 9.4 targets per game with a 27% target share, 39% WR share, 29.2% air yard, and 95% route participation.
MORE: Week 13 WR Fantasy Football Rankings
We know the matchup is great against the Lions, who are 30th in points and 28th in success rate. Kirk also has a cakewalk matchup against Will Harris, who is allowing a 79% catch rate and a team-high 1.5 yards per route covered. Kirk is a low-end WR1 for fantasy in Week 13. Get him into your starting lineups.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
This might seem like a no-brainer, but we have to treat players differently when returning from injury. Especially an injury that has kept them out for multiple weeks.
Usually, I take a wait-and-see approach when a player comes back from injury, but Ja’Marr Chase is one of those mold-breaking players who can’t justify sitting if they’re available. Chase was limited during practice this week, but all indications suggest he will be back in action after nearly playing in Week 12.
Kansas City, for as much as they tried to replace Tyrann Mathieu, has allowed the sixth-most yards on passes that have traveled 20+ yards in the air. That just so happens to be Chase’s specialty and the connection he has with Joe Burrow.
The last time these teams met in the regular season, it was historic for Chase, who recorded 11 receptions on 12 targets for 266 yards and three scores. As long as he is active on Sunday, Chase is a must-start.
Gerald Everett, TE, Los Angeles Chargers
Although he had an incredible matchup last week, Gerald Everett only had 18 yards against the Cardinals on four receptions plus the game-winning two-point conversion.
Week 13 should be a bounce back for Everett, who enters the week as the TE9 in points per game with a 14.3% target share and sixth in red-zone targets. This week, he takes on the Raiders, who’ve allowed the sixth-most points to tight ends this year at 13.9 PPR and are 26th in DVOA to the position. He’s a low-end TE1 for Week 13.
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pat Freiermuth has seen a massive increase in volume since the Chase Claypool trade. Since then, Freiermuth has a ridiculous 24.7% target share while averaging 51 yards a game.
Last week, he finished third on the team in receiving with 39 yards on three catches. While Freiermuth only has one touchdown on the year, he has four red-zone targets in his last three games.
The matchup this week isn’t bad, either. Atlanta has allowed the 13th-highest catch rate, ninth-most yards, and sits 24th in PPR fantasy points allowed at 13.0. Keep Freiermuth in your lineup in what could be the best game the Steelers’ offense has had all year.
Week 13 Fantasy Football Sit ’ems
Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants
Although 2022 has been an improvement for Daniel Jones (QB12), last week was not one of his better days. Jones completed 21 of his 35 pass attempts for 228 yards and a touchdown against Dallas while adding 14 more yards on the ground on three carries.
Rushing volume is what has carried Jones’ upside. He’s 15th in yards and fourth in red-zone carries and touchdowns.
It’s the matchup this week I don’t like. Washington is ninth in EPA, second in success rate, and has allowed just 21 points or fewer as a defense to opponents in every game since Week 4. Additionally, the Commanders have allowed over 20 PPR points to quarterbacks twice, both to Jalen Hurts.
With right tackle Evan Neal and center Jon Feliciano back, I expect the Giants to lean on Saquon Barkley. I would sit Jones, who comes into Week 13 as a mid-QB2.
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last week, coming out of the bye, future Hall of Famer Tom Brady completed 29 of 34 attempts for 246 yards and two touchdowns against the Browns to finish as the QB13 on the week. Although not significant, that was his best finish since a QB7 performance against the Falcons in Week 5.
The Saints, however, have had Brady’s number since he moved down south. In the last five meetings, they’ve held Brady under 250 yards four times, and he only has two games with multiple passing touchdowns.
This includes a season-low 9.4 PPR fantasy points against them back in Week 2. Brady’s averaged 12.4 fantasy points against New Orleans and has only scored double-digit points once in the last four meetings.
Although I do like Chris Godwin’s outlook this week, in 1QB leagues, I would look for other options than Brady in Week 13.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Isiah Pacheco is coming off a season-best 15.6 fantasy points against the Rams and recorded his first touchdown since Week 1. In fairness to Pacheco, he’s been solid in recent games. Since Week 10, he’s averaged 18 touches and 91.7 total yards to finish as the RB36, RB23, and RB16, respectively. While that sounds great initially, he’s averaged just 8.6 PPR fantasy points over his last four games.
Pacheco has four receptions on the season and is only finding value through volume, with 53 carries over his last three games. While Cincinnati does sit 15th in DVOA and 19th in points during the previous four games, they’re a completely different defense now that D.J. Reader is back and plugging up the middle, and Mike Hilton is flying into the backfield out of the slot corner.
Last week, the Bengals held Derrick Henry to just 38 yards on 17 carries last week. In a game where passing volume will reign supreme, I have a hard time trusting Pacheco is anything more than a touchdown-dependent high-end RB3.
Cordarrelle Patterson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
The darling of last season, Cordarrelle Patterson, has not been the same player. While he did see 12 touches last week, since his return in Week 9, he’s only scored a rushing or receiving TD in one game (Week 9 vs. LAC).
What’s also concerning is that he is no longer the workhorse of the backfield, as Tyler Allgeier is helping to carry the load with 37 carries over his last four games.
Patterson will likely find it difficult again this week against the Steelers, who, since Week 7, are eighth in success rate. While Pittsburgh is 25th in DVOA against receiving backs, Patterson’s floor has me concerned in a game where neither team will look to push the pace.
With only two teams on a bye, you likely have safer options available for your Week 13 fantasy lineup.
Treylon Burks, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
If Treylon Burks has a good game, I’ll owe Kyle Yates a public apology after we went head-to-head on his podcast, with me listing Burks as a sit in Week 13.
He’s unquestionably trending in the right direction, as the Titans are finally treating him as the A.J. Brown replacement he was drafted to be. Burks has caught 11 of his 14 targets for 181 yards over his last two games, with three receptions of 40+ yards. He even scored a touchdown, but it had no fantasy impact as it was an “other” TD, which is very annoying.
MORE: Jameson Williams Fantasy Outlook Week 13
Still, this is the Eagles we’re talking about here. They’re first in DVOA against opposing No. 1 receivers, second overall in pass DVOA and EPA, 14th in success rate, ninth in points, and have allowed just three touchdowns to receivers since Week 5.
I still love the future for Burks, but I would prefer to sit him in Week 13 and bank on better days down the road.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
Let’s face it; this offense is broken. It sucks because I was all in on Courtland Sutton in the preseason, but there was no correct answer in the end.
Sutton has been on a decent streak, with 66 or more receiving yards in his past three weeks. He sits 15th in target share and 16th in air-yard share, and even though he hasn’t found paydirt since Week 4, he’s third in end-zone targets with 11.
However, Sutton’s aDOT is at a three-year low, and he’s averaging just 2.4 yards after the catch per reception. He has a sub-40% contested catch rate, which is the lowest in his career, and has just five receptions of 20 yards or more.
Out of a star-studded group of Stefon Diggs, Chase, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, Chris Olave, DJ Moore, and Kirk, Evans is the only one who has scored more than 13 PPR points against the Ravens. Given the form of Russell Wilson this year, I don’t see Sutton bucking the trend in Week 13.
Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins
In Week 12, Mike Gesicki had just one target and did not record a catch against the Houston Texans in a blowout victory. What do we expect him to do against the San Francisco 49ers?
Gesicki’s been essentially phased out of the offense with 72 total receiving yards and one touchdown over his last four games. I have no interest for fantasy when you’re not scoring and are averaging just 2.5 targets per game (7.5%).
The 49ers allow the second-lowest yards and fifth-lowest fantasy points per game to the position. Gesicki is a sit this week but will become a bit more intriguing next week against the Chargers.
Robert Tonyan, TE, Green Bay Packers
Initially, this was going to be Cole Kmet. However, it appears Justin Fields will attempt to play this weekend. With Darnell Mooney done for the year, Kmet is the only legitimate receiving option for the Bears. Therefore, I’m going to pivot to the other side of the field and recommend sitting Robert Tonyan.
Tonyan scored just five fantasy points against the Eagles last week, the sixth game in a row with nine points or fewer and the fourth straight with six or less. He had that one random blowup game back in Week 12 against the Jets, but Tonyan is a far cry from the 2020 version when he was a must-start.
Tonyan is a touchdown-dependant TE2 in Week 13 against the Bears defense that surrendered the 10th-fewest yards per reception and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game.