For the most part this season, Saquon Barkley has more than delivered for fantasy football managers. However, he is coming off a tough performance last week and now heads into a tough matchup, coming off a short week. Let’s examine whether fantasy managers should be concerned about Barkley as the New York Giants face the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
Saquon Barkley Fantasy Outlook for Week 12
Any analysis of Barkley’s value for Week 12 has to be considered in the context of his amazing season so far. Barkley’s average of 17 fantasy points per game is second only to his rookie season when he averaged 21.3 fantasy points.
With just one game where he has scored fewer than 10 fantasy points, we head into this analysis looking for comprehensive evidence that you should not be starting Barkley this week. Therefore, we are looking for any signs that the performance last week against the Detroit Lions was indicative of further struggles for the Giants’ star RB.
It is intriguing to note that last week was Barkley’s lowest number of rushing attempts since the Giants’ Week 5 game when he left the game with an injury. Only Weeks 3 and 5 saw Barkley see fewer opportunities than he did in Week 11, while his 76% snaps share was also the lowest of the season when he was not injured.
MORE: Week 12 Fantasy RB Start/Sit Recommendations
A further concern is that we saw Matt Brieda take the only goal-line carry that went the way of an RB in that game. You could rightly point to the blowout nature of the game as a big part of the reason, but that raises its own concerns. The Cowboys just blew the Minnesota Vikings away on the road and are playing arguably as well as any team in the league right now.
By most metrics, the Vikings are a better team than the Giants, and they were utterly dominated by the Cowboys. There has to be that kind of concern for the Giants this week. If the Cowboys do manage to boss the game, we could see Barkley being held out into the fourth quarter to protect him from a workload perspective.
The last note of concern comes with Barkley’s efficiency in two of the last three games. Against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 8, he averaged just 2.65 rushing yards per attempt. In Week 11, that dropped to 1.47 yards per attempt. In Week 8, he had just nine receiving yards from five targets, with just 13 receiving yards from five targets last week.
Of course, sandwiched in the middle of that is 152 rushing yards in the game against the Houston Texans. Even then, he only averaged 4.3 rushing yards per attempt, which is hardly the most convincing efficiency, despite the huge overall rushing output.
The Cowboys Present an Intriguing RB Matchup
Overall this season, the Cowboys are one of the toughest matchups for opposing RBs. They have allowed an average of just 16.89 fantasy points per game, which is the fifth-lowest number for the year. However, things have been a little more mixed in the last month.
In two of their last three games, they have allowed more than 20 fantasy points to opposing backs. That includes 29.1 fantasy points to the Packers’ RBs. In their Week 10 contest, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon combined for 203 rushing yards and a touchdown on 37 attempts. Even in Week 11, Dalvin Cook at least managed some measure of success, with 72 rushing yards on his 11 attempts.
In their Week 3 meeting, Bakley had 81 rushing yards and a touchdown on 14 attempts. He also added 45 receiving yards on four receptions from four targets. Barkley has seen four or more targets in seven of his 10 games this year, which helps to solidify his floor, especially in PPR formats.
The final thing to consider in this matchup is that the Cowboys were good against Barkley in their second matchup in 2021. It is hard to look at the first game, where he played just six offensive snaps. However, in the other matchup, Barkley had just 50 rushing yards on 15 attempts and added 24 receiving yards on four receptions from eight targets.
Should Fantasy Managers Start Barkley in Week 12?
While there are certainly some creeping concerns with Barkley, there is not enough evidence here to suggest that what we saw in Week 11 is so concerning that fantasy managers should bench the star RB. Of course, opposing teams are going to key on him, and that will result in some tough games, but he can succeed for fantasy managers in a number of different ways.
Barley has averaged 21 receiving yards and 3.1 receptions per game this year. That helps to solidify his floor, even when his rushing output is not that spectacular. Additionally, he has only carried the ball less than 15 times on two occasions. That sort of usage is extremely hard to overlook, especially with the efficiency we have seen opposing backs have against the Cowboys in the past two weeks.
MORE: Week 12 PPR Fantasy Football Rankings
There are certainly some red flags with Barkley. Given his incredible volume of touches this year, it is hardly surprising we might be seeing some efficiency concerns. Barkley is averaging 24.4 touches per game, putting him on pace to be just the fourth RB to total 400 touches since the 2006 season.
That heavy usage is always likely to result in some times when Barkley’s body is not quite right. Additionally, with the Giants still eyeing the playoffs, there will also be times when head coach Brian Daboll tries to limit his exposure. This game on the short week against the Cowboys could bring both of those concerns to the fore.