If you’re planning to bet on Week 11 NFL player props for this fascinating Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers matchup on Monday Night Football, then you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Cardinals vs. 49ers Player Props To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Christian McCaffrey Player Props
I’m comfortable going all in on Christian McCaffrey in this one. After what we saw last week, some bettors might take the unders across the board. This appears to be a two-headed backfield with Elijah Mitchell back from injured reserve.
And yet, there are good reasons why the only Mitchell props available as of Sunday night are TD-related. Nothing for yardage or receptions. The line setters aren’t comfortable with Mitchell, because we have no idea if he’ll split backfield touches, or if McCaffrey is still the de facto bell cow.
The opposing Cardinals have yielded the 10th-most RB receiving yards — a key McCaffrey strength — and a reasonable 4.4 yards per carry. They actually shut him down in Week 4 when McCaffrey played for Carolina. But this is an entirely different offense and system. Arizona can’t afford to lock down on McCaffrey against a very capable passing attack.
- Rushing yards over 65.5
(+110) — DraftKings - Receptions over 4.5
(-125) — BetMGM - Receiving yards over 35.5
(-110) — BetMGM
Deebo Samuel Player Props
Deebo Samuel went from one of the league’s top receivers to . . . well, he’s still terrific. But he’s faced two major obstacles. First, seven drops: not good. Last season, QBs averaged a healthy 106.2 passer rating when targeting him. This year? 68.1.
Second obstacle (more recently): a more dynamic backfield led by McCaffrey, plus a crowded receiving corps where Samuel has to compete with Brandon Aiyuk. Early last season, Aiyuk was largely ignored. This year, he’s a main cog in this passing attack.
MORE: Is DeAndre Hopkins Playing Monday vs. the 49ers?
Where does this leave Samuel? Let’s not panic. Last season, he enjoyed 7.6 targets and 3.7 carries per game. He was a constant presence. This season, he’s averaging 7.5 targets and 3.5 carries. Almost identical.
I believe Samuel will come around, and this is a terrific get-right game to do it, against the beatable Arizona secondary that’s surrendered the fourth-most receiving yards.
- Receptions over 4.5
(-135) — DraftKings - Receiving yards under 50.5
(-114) — FanDuel
Brandon Aiyuk Player Props
Anything Samuel can do, Aiyuk can do better. Or almost anything. Aiyuk is the real deal, reeling in an exceptional 71% of his targets, placing him inside the top 20 in WR receiving yards despite being outside the top 30 in WR targets.
For all the Samuel-related reasons stated above — and more — I’m bullish about Aiyuk hitting 6+ receptions for 70+ yards.
- Receptions over 4.5
(+105) — DraftKings - Receiving yards over 55.5
(-115) — DraftKings
James Conner Player Props
As of Sunday evening, James Conner is the only Arizona player with a yardage prop. Everyone else is TD or bust. Kyler Murray’s status heading into this weekend probably factored heavily in this market’s hesitancy to commit to passing-game projections.
The challenge for Conner in this contest is that, while he might carry a heavy load, the Niners’ run defense is the best in the league. They’re giving up only 3.4 yards per rushing attempt.
If San Francisco takes and holds a comfortable lead into the third quarter (which I expect), then Conner might be relegated to more of a passing-down role. Great for his reception potential and not so good for his ground yardage potential.
- Rushing yards under 49.5
(-110) — DraftKings - Receiving yards over 19.5
(-114) — FanDuel
Trey McBride Player Props
Let’s have some fun with this prop. With Zach Ertz on the shelf, rookie Trey McBride could make some noise. When Colt McCoy practiced with the No. 2s this summer, McBride would have been part of this group. I expect their chemistry to result in at least one red-zone look. That’s enough for me to make this longshot bet.
- TD anytime
(+600) — FanDuel