If you’re looking for Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL DFS picks for Monday Night Football in Week 11, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Cardinals Considerations
Injuries and a key WR departure have helped transformed this once 7-0 team (2021) into a subpar unit. They’ve won only eight of their last 21 contests dating back to that bizarre missed opportunity by A.J. Green in the end zone against the Packers last season. Tonight might be their last shot at firmly being in the postseason conversation.
With Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins hobbled, our DFS considerations get a little muddled. James Conner needs volume to be worth his cost, and Rondale Moore is too pricey these days to invest in confidently.
Complicating things even more, San Francisco is yielding the league’s fewest yards per carry (3.4), nearly a half-yard better than the next-best defense. They’re also giving up the fourth-fewest passing yards.
What the Chiefs did against them in Week 7 was more of an anomaly. The Niners are for real, and no Arizona offensive playmakers should be considered “safe.”
49ers Considerations
In the span of a few weeks, San Francisco’s backfield has shifted from ride or die with Jeff Wilson Jr. to rainbows and sunshine with Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell. Independently, neither RB is a near lock for 10+ DFS points. But we might envision them combining for 35+.
Yes, this is a hot-hand backfield with two perennial hot hands. We shouldn’t be surprised if they combine for 30+ touches. Whoever scores more might win the day. Should we roll the dice on a hedge? Or was Mitchell’s stellar return last week a red herring?
MORE: Is Kyler Murray Playing Monday vs. 49ers?
The receiving game looks a little murkier, despite the incredible talent on display. Deebo Samuel hasn’t earned his DFS salary, and frankly, he might not most weeks with a more loaded offense that includes an ascendent Brandon Aiyuk.
But . . . the Cardinals are surrendering the fourth-most passing yards. While Jimmy Garoppolo’s ceiling remains relatively capped, I would expect Samuel or Aiyuk to break through against a beatable defense that surely will try their best (in vain?) to contain the run.
Top 49ers vs. Cardinals DFS Lineup
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: QB Christian McCaffrey, 49ers ($17,100)
One of the top fantasy RBs this week also has one of the top DFS ceilings. As alluded to above, his floor remains uncomfortably low-ish for such an incredible talent. A “bad” night might culminate in 12 points. A great night? He could get 26+ against a defense giving up nearly five receptions per game to running backs.
Flex: QB Colt McCoy, Cardinals ($9,400)
Not a flashy pick, but a necessary one. I don’t trust the similarly priced James Conner in what could be a negative game script. Colt McCoy has the personnel to snag 12+ points, with some pop if things break right.
Flex: WR Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($8,200)
He was elite last season. Now, he’s merely pedestrian for a supposed co-WR1. But in a must-win game for the 5-4 Niners, I expect Samuel’s targets to tick upward.
He’s averaged 6.5 in his last two contests. Seven dropped passes haven’t helped his case. But the team needs Samuel at his best to make a push for the NFC West title and a first-round home game. They’ll figure it out.
Flex: WR Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers ($7,600)
We could go cheaper with Mitchell, locking in the Niners RB hedge and putting the salary savings toward a better player elsewhere. Or . . . we can feel good about snagging one of the most consistently great receivers of the past month. Aiyuk has amassed at least six catches for 80+ yards in each of his last four games. That’s no joke.
Flex: WR Rondale Moore, Cardinals ($6,600)
With Zach Ertz sidelined, Rondale Moore gets a nice bump. Is he a reliable top-30 WR? Not in this contest. But he has 10+ targets in three of his last five games and seems like a safer bet than the $5,800 Mitchell.
After all, if I’m going with McCoy, it means I believe he’ll find success with at least one of his receivers, and more likely two. Moore is too cheap to ignore.
Flex: TE Trey McBride, Cardinals ($1,000)
With only $1,100 remaining, we’ll roll with rookie Trey McBride, who could walk away from this matchup as the Cards’ unquestioned starting tight end the rest of the season.