The question of Ezekiel Elliott playing has hung over fantasy football managers for the past three weeks. Entering Week 11, the question remains with Elliott listed as limited on the Dallas Cowboys’ final injury report.
Is Elliott expected to play in Week 11, and what are the fantasy implications for both Elliott and Tony Pollard if that proves to be the case?
Update: Ezekiel Elliott is active for the Cowboys’ Week 11 game.
Is Ezekiel Elliott Playing Today?
The saga with Elliott appears to be heading toward a conclusion, as he is expected to suit up for Week 11 against the Minnesota Vikings. The news has been reported by both ESPN’s Adam Schefter and NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. In the report from Rapoport, he stated that a source had told him Elliott is “light years ahead of last week.”
The news that Elliott is likely to suit up comes after the Cowboys’ RB was limited for the second-straight week in practice. While he ultimately did not suit up last week, things appear to be different against the Vikings this week.
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Prior to his injury, Elliott was seemingly starting to hit his stride. In the final three games, he had a combined 216 rushing yards and added three rushing touchdowns in those last two games. In the first four weeks of the season, Elliott had largely become dependent on finding the end zone to return starting value for fantasy managers.
In those first four games, the Cowboys RB had only topped 55 rushing yards once. The only thing that saved Elliott from being a bust for fantasy managers in three of those first four weeks was 32 receiving yards in Week 4. However, in half-PPR scoring, Elliott has managed to top 10 fantasy points just three times, all of which came when he scored touchdowns.
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The reason for this concern comes largely due to a decrease in his receiving work. Elliott is averaging more rushing attempts per game than he did last season, but his targets have dropped considerably. Since his rookie year, Elliott had never averaged below 3.8 targets per game. In 2022, that number is down to 1.14. Accordingly, Elliott is averaging just 0.86 receptions and 4.57 receiving yards per game this season.
This now appears to be a consistent downturn for Elliott in the receiving game. In the 2020 season and before, Elliott averaged more than 22.5 receiving yards per game and at least two receptions per game every year. However, that dropped to 16.9 receiving yards per game last season. Additionally, Elliott dropped below four targets and three receptions per game for the first time since 2017.
With all of that in mind, what should fantasy managers expect from Elliott in his return to the field? With the success we saw Pollard have in his absence, should fantasy managers feel safe throwing Elliott straight back into their lineup?
Fantasy Outlook for Elliott and Tony Pollard in Week 11
While we have a good idea that Elliott should suit up in Week 1, what is more uncertain is the role that he will have with the Cowboys upon his return. Before the injury, Elliott was the lead back. He had seen double-digit carries every single week, while Pollard had only managed that three times in the first seven games.
This season, the Cowboys are averaging 28.4 rushing attempts per game. Elliott is averaging a touch over 50% of those at 15.6 rushing attempts per game. Meanwhile, Pollard was averaging 9.6 rushing attempts per game prior to the injury for Elliott.
However, in the final two games of the first seven weeks, Pollard had seen a total of 23 rushing attempts, compared to 28 for Elliott. Some of that balance may be that Elliott suffered his knee injury during the game against the Lions. We saw his snap share drop to 49%, the first time it has been below 58%, and only the second time below 60% all season.
However, there does appear to have been a shift to this being a case of Elliott as the 1A to Pollard as the 1B in Dallas this season. Even at 9.6 rushing attempts per game, that is a career-high for Pollard. It is also a continued year-over-year increase that we have seen throughout his career.
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When you then consider what Pollard has done in Elliott’s absence, the picture gets even cloudier. Pollard has taken 36 rushing attempts for 246 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Pollard has been incredibly efficient carrying the ball this year, averaging six yards per rush attempt. Meanwhile, Elliott has been down at 4.1 yards per attempt, close to a career low for him.
The initial thought was that Pollard’s inflated career efficiency was in part due to his limited and selective usage in certain situations. However, he averaged 6.8 rushing yards per attempt as the lead back, albeit in a small sample size. If the picture was not already somewhat clouded in the Cowboys’ backfield, it certainly is now.
Further adding to the uncertainty for fantasy managers is that the Vikings have been reasonably strong against opposing back in terms of fantasy points. They have allowed 17.5 fantasy points per game to opposing backs, which is the fifth lowest in the league. In three of their last four games, they held opposing backs to 10 fantasy points or fewer.
However, they did allow Devin Singletary to find the end zone twice last week, as the Bills backfield scored 19.2 fantasy points. That, combined with the Vikings having allowed 22 fantasy points per game to opposing backs in the first five weeks of the season, suggests there is the potential for the Cowboys’ backs to produce this week, but we cannot simply expect both of them to have big weeks.
While Elliott was out, Pollard had really established himself as a borderline must-start for fantasy managers. However, with Elliott back, it seems unlikely he will average 18 rushing attempts per game going forward.
That said, the Cowboys also likely do not want to throw Elliott straight back into the fire this week and risk re-injury. They will likely want to try and balance the workloads for Elliott and Pollard to try and ensure both are healthy for their run at the playoffs.
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All of this means that Pollard actually feels like the better option to start this week. The presence of Elliott still restricts it to a Flex consideration in 12-team leagues, but he is the one with the clearer upside entering the week. In contrast, Elliott likely returns to being a touchdown-dependent back. In season-long leagues, it is hard to view Elliott as anything more than a 14-team Flex consideration.
The best place for Elliott to have value this week is in Underdog Fantasy Best Ball leagues. In those leagues, drafting Elliott presents the upside he shows in Weeks 6 and 7, where he found the end zone three times.
However, it mitigates the risk if the Cowboys limit his touches this week or if he cannot find the end zone and ends up with a line of 15 rushing attempts for 63 yards, which is his average output for the season.