My Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers pick comes down to the Titans’ defense. Despite an offensive explosion for Green Bay (by its 2022 standards) in its dramatic win against the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday, my model does not see a repeat coming on Thursday Night Football.
Certainly not against a defense that has held teams to 17 or fewer points in five out of their last six games and only 10 points in three of its last four. This Titans vs. Packers prediction for Thursday Night Football will come down to whether Tennessee can keep up its current trend, and if the Packers can start a new one.
Titans vs. Packers Thursday Night Football Prediction
- Against the Spread:
Titans +3.0 - Over/Under:
Under - Moneyline:
Titans +143 - Score Projection:
Titans 22 – Packers 15 - Confidence Rating:
Highly Cautious
Titans vs. Packers Best Bets
If you have been following me on Pikkit, then you know that I have been pretty successful in predicting the Titans this year. They have been extremely consistent on both sides of the ball. Consistency equals predictability.
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They have been very reliable in keeping scores low, while their offense reliably scores between 21 and 17 points. I have a +90.74% ROI picking their games and am up 14.52 units. It is their defense that keeps it going for me this week.
The Titans’ defense is averaging 16.85 points per game this season when you remove their Week 2 outlier performance against the Buffalo Bills when they gave up 41 points, nearly twice as much as any other game this season. Additionally, they are giving up less than 90 rushing yards per game.
Week over week, the team has prevented opponents from scoring points at an insane 41% rate. For perspective, if that rate were to continue, they would be projected to give up under 10 points per game for the rest of the season, and under five by the time the season is over.
That trend is likely unsustainable, but certainly not a flash in the pan. For two-thirds of their games played, they have yielded less than three touchdowns, giving up only 10 points in three of their last four. Their deceleration rate of ÷1.62 is good for third in the league behind the New England Patriots (÷1.92) and the New Orleans Saints (÷1.73).
The Packers have seen improvement in their ability to score points, however. Week over week, they are seeing a 17% growth rate in that area. Scoring 31 points last week will help that. The question for them is: can they sustain that, or was that an outlier?
As of now, it was an outlier, and my model is acting accordingly. It was their highest point total of the season and the first time they had scored four or more touchdowns all season. This is why I am taking the Titans (+143) on the moneyline this week and am declaring it my Titans vs Packers best bet.
Yes, I’m also taking Tennessee +3 against the spread, but the value here is on the moneyline. My sports betting model has the Titans winning outright by as much as a touchdown.
Thursday Night Football is where overs have gone to die. Luckily, my model is predicting under 41 points. With a projected final point total of 37 points, I’ll happily take that 4 point margin. With history and the projection on my side, that’s a bet I’ll feel good about.
This game gets a “Highly Cautious” confidence rating from me. The Titans’ defense has a celeration rate well outside my threshold for a safe bet. As mentioned before, while that rate is very impressive, it is also likely unsustainable.
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The question is not whether or not they return to baseline, but when. The question bettors must always ask when faced with that conundrum is: “will it be this week?”, and in this case, is baseline enough to change my thought on the outcome of the game?
No. Titans 22 – Packers 15.
*Thursday Night Football bets are all made using the Caesars Sportsbook. To track these bets, follow along on PFN’s number one rated best bet tracking app, Pikkit.